The NBA playoffs begin in 40 days. The season is down to fewer than 20 games for most teams. We are in crunch time.
Have a bad week? There goes home court. Have a bad two weeks? Your playoff spot might be in jeopardy.
This is when things get toughest, between the exhaustion, injuries and pressure. It's go time.
Here's a look at the Eastern Conference NBA playoff picture entering the games on Tuesday, March 5.
Magic numbers refer to the combination of wins and losses by the closest team in contention (and by extension, all subsequent teams) to secure a spot in question.
For example, if a team’s magic number is four for a playoff spot, they need four wins to clinch a playoff spot … or three wins and the ninth seed to lose one game … or two wins and the ninth seed to lose two games … or one win and the ninth seed to lose three games.
Eastern Conference Playoff Picture
1. Milwaukee Bucks (48-16)
Playoff spot: Clinched
Home court: The magic number is eight for home court in the first round, 12 for home court in the first two rounds (a top-two seed) and 16 for home court throughout the playoffs.
The Bucks are three up on the Raptors in the loss column and own the tiebreaker. The first round is obviously a lock. The second-round is basically a lock.
Milwaukee could go 12-6 — a 67% win rate vs. the Bucks' 75% win rate for the season — and clinch even if the Pacers (and Raptors) won out.
The Bucks' lead over the Raptors is considerable. Toronto would have to go on a fairly berserk run or Milwaukee would have to really fall off to open this up.
Another two-game losing streak for the Bucks, when they lost back-to-back games for the first time all season on Monday, still gives them the edge via tiebreaker. Put another way: A really shaky 10-8 finish for the Bucks would require the Raptors to go at least 13-5 to get the 1-seed.
So yeah, Milwaukee's going to be the 1-seed.
2. Toronto Raptors (46-18)
Playoff spot: The Raptors' magic number is two. They'll have locked a playoff spot by the end of the week.
Home court: Toronto's magic number for home court in the first round is 10. That's a lock. It's 13 for the second round, and I'd go ahead and call that a lock as well.
Toronto is going to win, at the very least, nine of its final 18 games. Plus, Indiana and Philadelphia lack the kind of gear to really make a run at the Raptors.
As stated above, the Bucks probably have a lead the Raptors can't get past for the 1-seed.
Toronto is probably fine right there, by the way. The Raptors aren't worried about going into Milwaukee for the Eastern Conference Finals, and there's a decent chance they wind up with either Indiana, Brooklyn or Detroit in Round 2 — and that's all preferable to whoever comes out of Boston-Philly.
3. Indiana Pacers (41-23)
Playoff spot: The Pacers' magic number is eight. That's a lock. They're in.
Home court: Their magic number for home court in the first round is 16. This is a lot dicier.
The Pacers have 18 games remaining. They have more road games than home games. And 10 of the 18 are against teams in the top five of their respective conferences, including two against the Nuggets and two against the Celtics, who they're directly competing with for this spot.
The Pacers have the highest opponent win percentage for their remaining schedule of any team in the league. It's not looking good.
Indiana has been remarkable without Victor Oladipo, with the 11th-best net rating since he went down, even better than Boston or Philadelphia. But the schedule has helped build the Pacers a cushion.
They're a playoff lock, but it could be tooth and nail to the end for home court, which they'll need to get out of the first round.
4. Philadelphia 76ers (40-23)
Playoff spot: The Sixers' magic number is 9. They're a lock.
Home court: They're in this battle with Indiana and Boston, and it's going to be tight.
The Sixers have a relatively weak remaining schedule at opponent win percentage (.472) even with 11-of-19 on the road. Their big plus is that they lead Indiana 2-1 in season series. The two play again on March 10. A win there gives the Sixers a good shot at catching/overtaking Indiana and clinching tiebreaker.
The Sixers' bigger issue is Boston. They lost tiebreaker.
Philly has not been able to figure out how to beat Boston going back to last season. The Celtics' bigs deter Joel Embiid and are able to scheme against Ben Simmons harder than anyone. So Philly needs to get out of that matchup.
If the Celtics get to 3, that's fine; take Indy in the 4-5. But if the Celtics stay in 4-5, Philly has got to get out of it.
5. Boston Celtics (38-26)
Playoff spot: The Celtics' magic number is 11. That is too low to present any threat. They're a lock.
They could absolutely bottom out and would still breeze to a spot.
They might not have to win another game, in all honesty.
Home court: We're right on the edge of them being out of it. Their tiebreakers help a lot.
They clinched against Philadelphia and are 1-1 against Indiana with two to play. They're three back in the loss column, so both games against Indiana are imperative.
The Celtics have bigger issues, but home court would help.
The reality, however, is that Kyrie Irving is right when he says that the Celtics should feel like they can beat any team in a seven-game playoff series. They can. They don't need home court.
But last season's road performance is concerning, as is the fact they're the only top-five East team with a sub-.500 record on the road.
If the Celtics catch Philly for the 4-seed, this sets them up fine. Milwaukee won the season series, but the Celtics could have a higher gear and a way to scheme Giannis in seven games that they couldn't execute in the regular season.
Let me put it this way: The Celtics can absolutely still win the East, but we're getting to the point that it looks like they're going to make it as tough on themselves as possible.
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The Rest: Detroit Pistons (31-31), Brooklyn Nets (33-33), Orlando Magic (30-35), Charlotte Hornets (29-34), Miami Heat (29-34)
Magic numbers:
6. Pistons: 17
7. Nets: 16
8. Magic: 19
9. Hornets: 19
10. Heat: 20
What a mess.
Some context: The Magic are currently in eighth because of win percentage, but they're actually behind the ninth- and 10th-place Hornets and Heat in the loss column, so Orlando needs those teams to lose in order to catch up as the games progress.
Again, it's a mess.
The Pistons are obviously in the best spot. They're up three in the loss column on Orlando, and Orlando plays Miami and Charlotte, so one team is finishing with at least 35 losses. The Pistons lost the tiebreaker to Charlotte and are tied 1-1 with Brooklyn, but lead 2-1 against Miami and Orlando.
That's a four-game lead, but they have 20 games left to play. The Pistons are still very much on the bubble.
The difference at the bottom of the East vs. the top of the East is that the top is very unlikely to rattle off a four-game losing streak while these teams at the bottom could do so if they didn't play one another.
I would point out that Detroit has the best net rating league-wide since the All-Star Break, and a reasonable opponent win percentage (.463) remaining. I'm not willing to call the Pistons a near-lock, but they're certainly in the driver's seat.
After that? It's just a complete mess.
The Nets looked like they would created separation but plummeted back to Earth. They have the third-toughest remaining schedule with a West Coast road trip against the Thunder, Clippers, Jazz and Kings then a finish against Milwaukee (twice) along with Toronto and Indiana.
The good news is that their closing stretch could feature the Bucks and Raptors having clinched the 1- and 2-seeds and resting players, with an outside chance of the same against Indiana.
The Nets need to win two of their next three against weak opponents and Detroit.
Orlando is in a really tough spot. The Magic trail Detroit and Charlotte for tiebreaker, and lost it outright to Brooklyn. They lead Miami 2-1.
As I said earlier, the Magic have the 8-seed, but one more loss than Charlotte and Miami. They play those teams each once more, so they control their destiny from that perspective.
Orlando also has the fifth-easiest remaining schedule, which is horrible for them. No joke: The Magic have the worst win percentage against teams worse than .500 of the top 11 teams in the East, while having the fifth-most wins against teams better than .500.
So this gift of a schedule is a nightmare for the Magic. They have to get out of their own way to make the playoffs.
Miami and Charlotte are on the outside looking in, but are up one in the loss column, so they have the inside track. The two play on Wednesday in a huge game. Charlotte can win the tiebreaker with a win (or a Heat loss to Atlanta due to division record). Both teams also play Orlando, so they each control their destiny.
…
Here's an image of the dreadful, depressing, broken Washington Wizards who sit just three back in the loss column from Miami and Charlotte:
Eastern Conference Playoff Projections
This is not based on a statistical analysis of odds to win or the 538 or ESPN projections — which, by the way, are very sensitive to win streaks of three or more.
This is just based on what I'm thinking. A win streak or injury can obviously change things. Prediction as of 3/5:
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Toronto Raptors
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Indiana Pacers
- Boston Celtics
- Detroit Pistons
- Charlotte Hornets
- Brooklyn Nets
