The FIBA tournament is down to four teams and based on the latest FIBA World Cup odds, the teams with the shortest odds entering the tournament — USA and Canada — appear to be on a collision course.
Our Action Network analysts — Brandon Anderson, Joe Dellera and Bryan Fonseca — are betting both matchups for Friday's slate, including the total in Serbia vs Canada and player props in USA vs. Germany.
Continue reading for their FIBA World Cup best bets for Friday's semifinals.
| Serbia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -104 | 176.5 -104o / -122u | +176 |
| Canada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -122 | 176.5 -104o / -122u | -220 |
Brandon Anderson: If you feel like setting your alarm for an overnight game, you should at least be rewarded with a whole lot of points. I’m expecting Serbia vs. Canada to be a shootout.
Just look at the numbers. Serbia has scored 105, 94, 115, 76, 112 and 87 points. They’re averaging 98.2 PPG with only one low performance against a gritty Italian team in a loss. Canada’s numbers are similar. The Canadians have scored 95, 128, 101, 65, 88 and 100 in their games and are averaging 96.2 PPG. Again, the one outlier was in the bad loss, against a Latvia team that totally discombobulated them.
Combined, Serbia and Canada are scoring over 194 points a game, so this one shapes up as a race to the top. Both teams have qualified for the Olympics, so this is all about getting to the gold medal game and securing a chance to face USA.
I’m expecting an open game with a lot of scoring. It'll likely be a back-and-forth affair that’s tight all the way. As long as one of these teams doesn’t blow the other out, I feel great about the over. If you feel great about the over and want an escalator, you can play over 184.5 at +205 (DraftKings).
Pick: Over 175.5
Bryan Fonseca: You could talk me into either team winning this game, but one thing that can’t be disputed is that these American-style teams haven't been awesome in first half.
A lot’s been made — including by me — about Team USA not pulling away from New Zealand until late and trailing Montenegro and Lithuania at halftime, but Canada has had its own first-half struggles.
Against Latvia, Canada led by one before pulling away and winning by 26. Against Spain, Canada trailed by 10 at halftime before eventually stealing the game in the fourth quarter. The Canadians were also tied with Slovenia at half before steamrolling them in the third quarter.
And even against France, Canada's halftime lead was merely three points before winning by 30. In its loss to Brazil, Canada was up nine at half, but lost by four after getting punked by 5-foot-10 Yago Mateus — that’s the outlier.
Serbia is better than all those teams.
I think Serbia can cover the 5.5-point spread, and could even win outright. To me, Canada has the edge late for the reasons outlined above, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best closer (and player) left standing, but I’m backing Serbia to lead at halftime.
Pick: Serbia 1st Half Moneyline (+160)
| USA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -111 | 178.5 -113o / -113u | -700 |
| Germany Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -115 | 178.5 -113o / -113u | +470 |
Anderson: Listen, Team USA isn't losing to Dennis Schroder. I’m sorry, they’re just not.
There’s one thing we know about all of these players, and it’s that they play with great pride — perhaps in their country, perhaps in themselves. Regardless, there's no way a team this talented is going to risk going back to the NBA and facing Schroder and Daniel Theis knowing that they choked against them on the world stage.
That means intensity and it means being locked in on defense. That’s the angle I’m playing.
Team USA has allowed 72, 81, 62, 73, 110 and 63 points. Spot the outlier? The 110 was in a loss when the Lithuanians opened the game 9-for-9 from 3. If Germany does that, this bet will be in trouble! But it’s telling that the Americans have allowed just 70.2 PPG outside of that Lithuania game. Players like Anthony Edwards have been able to ramp up their defensive intensity with smaller roles on offense, and it’s noticeable.
It’s been a bumpy road at times, but the Americans are two games away from gold and they can already smell Team Canada in the finals. This is the time to lock in, and I don’t see Germany’s talent level measuring up. I like USA, but prefer this to the spread.
Pick: Germany under 83.5
Fonseca: Team USA isn’t an overwhelming rebounding squad, though it is statistically one of the better teams in this tournament. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been getting worked on the boards and is averaging less than three rebounds per game while logging 16.1 minutes per contest.
That’s fewer rebounds per minute than: Josh Hart, Anthony Edwards, Paolo Banchero, Brandon Ingram, Bobby Portis Jr. and Walker Kessler. That makes him seventh on the team, which has 12 players. But hey, this is y’alls DPOY.
Anyway, Theis has gone over 5.5 boards in back-to-back games and in 3-of-6 World Cup contests. He also had 13 in a scrimmage against Team USA last month.
Theis' boards per minute would be third behind Hart and Portis Jr. on Team USA. He should get this, and shouldn’t be the only German to get their rebounding over in this game.
Pick: Daniel Theis over 5.5 rebounds (-120)
Joe Dellera: Franz Wagner returned in the quarterfinals and made quite an impact against Latvia. He played 24 minutes and logging 16 points, eight rebounds and three assists off the bench. I think he is Germany’s best and most impactful player, so having him for this semifinal matchup against USA is critical for Germany.
One of the obvious concerns when returning from a lower body injury is a player’s explosiveness and ability to cut and jump. While Latvia is one of the worst rebounding teams in the tournament, Wagner still attacked the basket on offense and pulled down eight boards.
In six games (preparation and the World Cup), Wagner has averaged 6.67 rebounds per game and recorded five or more in each of those six games, including 10 against the United States in a preparation contest. Although it was just a preparation game, Germany out-rebounded the United States 46-35 in a 99-91 loss.
It’s obvious that this is a must-win game and it wouldn't surprise me to see Wagner play close to 30 minutes. This 4.5 line (DraftKings) is too low and there is also some value on Wagner's alternate lines. Bet365 has 7+(+320), FanDuel has 8+ (+550) and Bet365 has 10+ (+1550). I would sprinkle on at least the seven or eight if they're available to you.
