J.B. Bickerstaff was a victim of the expectations he himself helped raise.
The Cavaliers were supposed to win 26.5 games by the market expectation based on season win total in 2022. They won 44 instead, narrowly missing the playoffs by losing in the play-in after a spate of injuries. In 2023, the bar was raised to 42.5. After trading for Donovan Mitchell, the Cavaliers won 51 games. The Cavaliers made the playoffs, but got run over by the Knicks' offensive rebound hustle machine.
This season, the bar was raised to 50.5. They missed it by two games after lengthy injuries to all their core four players. They tanked the last game of the season to avoid the seventh-seeded Sixers (or Heat, it was unknown at the time), putting themselves in Boston's bracket. They barely got past the Orlando Magic in seven games, and then, after late-season injuries to Mitchell and Jarrett Allen — I'm sensing a pattern here — they lost to the Celtics in five games.
And so on Thursday, the Cavaliers "dismissed" Bickerstaff after four seasons.
(Note: "Dismissed" is supposed to be the polite way of saying "fired," and yet dismissed is so much worse. People get fired all the time. Getting dismissed makes it sound like you were thrown out the window into a dumpster in the alley.)
The question of what happens next immediately turns to the elephant in the room — Mitchell's potential extension. Owner Dan Gilbert said he thinks the team will extend Mitchell this summer. Mitchell, wisely, has politely sidestepped questions about the decision. He said he's "happy" in Cleveland, which is what so many players who have eventually been traded have said. That's not to say he doesn't stay, just that you shouldn't take it as a sign wither way. It's purposefully non-committal while being kind to the home fans.
If the Cavaliers truly believe Mitchell is re-signing, firing Bickerstaff allows them to reshape the team around him with a coach best suited for playoff success and able to maximize Mitchell's impact.
If the Cavaliers truly believe Mitchell won't re-sign, firing Bickerstaff allows them to redirect the franchise either into a rebuild or into a different phase around Darius Garland and Evan Mobley.
The third option is the concerning one. If the Cavaliers don't know if Mitchell is re-signing, they need to be very, very careful with this next hire
Teams have done this before, where they expect to compete, make a big change, and then their star leaves. They have hired a coach to try and compete with stars and a real contender and instead that coach winds up working with a developmental, rebuilding roster.
Stephen Silas was regarded as a great potential head coach when Houston hired him. He was supposed to coach a James Harden team with a multiple MVP-top-five finisher and one-time winner, alongside veterans like John Wall, a player who was thought to be good at the time (Christian Wood) and some veteran talent.
Instead, he got a rebuilding squad and it was a disaster.
The Cavaliers hired Byron Scott to replace Mike Brown on July 2, 2010 to try and take the team to the next level.
LeBron James sat down for The Decision six days later.
So, the Cavaliers need to fully understand their situation before they make a hire. However, if Mitchell is traded, it'll likely be later in the summer between July and September, and Cleveland has to make a hire before then.
The Cavs need to tread extremely carefully. They need a coach that can help them more in the playoffs, but can also work on developing good habits in young players. They need an innovative offensive mind to deal with their limitations, but it can't be an offensive-only mind given that the strength of the roster is in its defense.
Again, if the Cavaliers know Mitchell is signing the extension, then this is a great move. They know what they're going to have and what they're going to need. They can look for problem solvers with playoff experience (even as assistants) and work with Mitchell on what kind of coach is best for him.
If they know he's not re-signing, then that allows them to plot a long-term future without him and focus on building a sustainable contender with the talent they have, or look to acquire the next franchise cornerstone if they don't believe they have one.
That's not to suggest Cleveland shouldn't have fired Bickerstaff. Bickerstaff deserves a ton of credit for the work he did taking the Cavaliers from a moribund lottery squad into a top-three seed, but his playoff problems were massive and evident. Once the Cavaliers were unable to take either game in Orlando and were blown out in Games 4 and 5, that had to be it for him.
But the issue is the timing of the next hire. Typically in the cycle, teams want to have a new coach in place for the draft so they can work with him and his staff on who to add to the roster. But the Cavaliers' future entirely depends on whether Mitchell agrees to put pen to paper on the extension.
And if Mitchell decides he won't sign the extension, but also doesn't tell Cleveland he won't re-sign, then the Cavs are stuck in the middle and have to hire a coach for two very different futures.
A coach like Denver's David Adelman is a great fit if pivoting to a long-term developmental move. A veteran coach like Kenny Atkinson is great if the Cavs are looking to win now. But the odds are strong that the Cavs will make a hire expecting one thing, then wind up with an entirely different kind of team.
Firing Bickerstaff wasn't a bad decision. But if they don't step carefully, the next decision could have devastating effects.
