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We are BACK with the NBA Player Props Forecast for the upcoming season. Last year we smacked a few ladders (see also Rudy Gobert and Nikola Jokic), and some Playoffs Series Leader Bets (i.e. Jamal Murray Points) but for those that are new here, this is my way to preview spots I'm eying before the week starts whether it is due to a matchup, an injury, or some other change in circumstance. This allows you to get the best of each line because you know my targets before the lines even drop.
The New Look Phoenix Suns
Schedule: Oct. 24 at Warriors | Oct. 26 at Lakers | Oct. 28 vs. Jazz
The Suns had an eventful offseason, acquiring Bradley Beal, Jusuf Nurkic, and Grayson Allen while shipping off Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. Couple all of these changes with Frank Vogel being hired as the new head coach and its nearly an entirely different team even with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker remaining on the roster.
While there is a thought that Booker or Beal may be the biggest beneficiaries to see their assists numbers climb, the surprising target from a betting perspective is Jusuf Nurkic. Deandre Ayton is a better player than Nurkic, and I think it will impact their defensive flexibility significantly; however, the one thing Nurkic does better than Ayton is operating as a secondary facilitator. He is a solid wheelman and can dish out of the post in a variety of different actions. In 40 Games last season with Damian Lillard, Nurkic averaged 2.9 assists per game and had 3 or more in half of those games. Here, he gets an even more overpowering offense that he can contribute towards. While he did not record any assists against the Lakers in their last preseason game, in the previous three he logged 5, 2, and 3 without ever playing more than 21 minutes but more importantly, he had 5 and 3 in the games he played with Booker, Durant, and Beal. Last season, he averaged 26.7 minutes per game and I'd be surprised given Phoenix's relative lack of depth that he would see fewer minutes this season. His prop has opened at over 2.5 assists (+125 DK) and that is absolutely a bet. I would consider 4+ (+230 FD) and 5+ (+575 DK) as well.
One player that may have a slightly different role is Devin Booker. Last season, he averaged 2.2 3s on 5.9 attempts per game with only 28.9% of his shots coming from beyond the arc. In the preseason, Booker played 3 games and drained 2, 3, and 4 3s on 4, 6, and 6 attempts. These attempts comprised 45.7% of his shot profile in the preseason where he never logged more than 21 minutes. This coincides with comments Vogel has made throughout the preseason. It is evident that the lack of 3-point shooting hurt them against Denver and getting 3s up has been a priority in Suns practice. Booker's 3 point prop has opened at 1.5 (-160) but I think there is more value on 3+ (+200), 4+ (+525), and 5+ (+1425) all at Bet365.
How to bet Victor Wembanyama's Debut
Schedule: Oct. 25 vs. Mavericks | Oct. 27 vs. Rockets | Oct. 29 at Clippers
The Spurs secured the #1 Pick in the NBA draft and took the alien that is Victor Wembanyama. Victor is a disruptor, and no player has entered the league with the same type of build and skills that he has. He stands at 7'4" with a preposterous 8′ wingspan and he has made his presence known throughout the preseason. In his most recent professional season for Wembanyama averaged 21.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game while he lead the Metropolitans 92 to the Finals.
In four preseason games, Wembanyama has averaged 19.25 points, 4.75 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, 2.75 blocks, and 2.75 turnovers in 21 minutes per game. His rebounding numbers are significantly down from when he played overseas; however, he played 32 minutes per game there. Overseas he averaged 0.325 rebounds per minute while in preseason he averaged .226 rebounds per minute. I am uncertain how he will adapt to a full game in the NBA for his rebounding. One thing that did stand out to me is his turnovers. 2.75 turnovers in 21 mpg is approximately 4.55 turnovers per 36 minutes. Those never translate perfectly but the idea here is while he has looked exceptional defensively due to his length, that same length may make him more prone to turnovers. One comparison point is Kevin Durant.In Durant's rookie season he averaged 2.9 turnovers but in his first month he averaged 3.5 per game as he adjusted to the the league. In preseason, Wembanyama struggled a bit with double teams and given his length, I expect him to have difficulty handling those situations where he could have his pockets picked.
Wembanyama's block potential is incredible though. Our Brandon Anderson discussed this on Buckets and in his Season Long Article. On Bet365, there is a special for Wembanyama to Record 5 Blocks in Any Game (-300). He just did this in his last preseason game against the Warriors. This bet will hit this season and (-300) is only 75% implied odds. Per Brandon, "last season, 27 different NBA players recorded 5 blocks in a game. 17 of them did it multiple times and Jaren Jackson Jr did it 14 times." Wembanyama might get 5 blocks in a single possession, let alone once during the entire season. Even though this is a significant -$ number, it's a must bet.
Draymond Green's Absence Could Prove Difficult for the Warriors
Schedule: Oct. 24 vs. Suns | Oct. 27 at Kings | Oct. 29 at Rockets
The Warriors shook up their roster this offseason and shipped Jordan Poole to the Wizards while bringing on Chris Paul as he continues his pursuit of a ring. It is a bit unclear whether CP3 will start for the Warriors; however, one of the major difficulties the Warriors will have with him is a significant lack of size at the guard position if he starts alongside Steph Curry.
From a Pace perspective, Chris Paul's general need for the rock in order to facilitate may slow down the Warriors' Pace in the minutes he is on the floor. He is used to playing in half court sets and I have slight concerns with the fit because of Golden State's offense that has thrived on perpetual motion. That being said, his uncanny ability to make the right basketball play should take a significant weight off of Steph Curry, especially if Draymond Green misses time to start the season. I'd look to bet his assists, which has opened at 7.5, a number he exceeded in 63% of games last season while averaging 8.7 per game. He will have some absolutely elite shooters in Steph and Klay to convert those opportunities.
Draymond's absence could be extremely significant. He's the heart of the team and his defensive prowess continues to be transcendent. If he does not play, this is a downgrade for the Warriors' defense and I'd expect teams to be able to score effectively against them. Furthermore, if he is out, we should expect more minutes from Jonathan Kuminga who has developed some rapport with Chris Paul during the preseason. Kevon Looney also saw an uptick in his rebounding numbers from 9.1 to 10.8 in games without Draymond last season. I'd look for his Rebounds prop if Green misses time; however, he has not had great success against Nurkic, so I would likely wait until their next game against the Rockets to target that play.
