I had a great 2018 betting on props, thanks primarily to our FantasyLabs Tools, so for 2019 I am publishing a quick-n’-dirty daily piece in which I highlight one of my favorite props for the day.
A quick note on props: When a line is terribly wrong, I usually don’t even get the chance to write about it, because the line will have corrected by the time most people read the piece.
So the props I’ve written about this year haven’t truly been my favorites or the ones in which I’ve most heavily invested. Rather, they’ve been ones that offer an edge but not one that’s obvious or large enough to be immediately exploited by the market.
That distinction might not matter to readers, but I want to be transparent. For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
4-5-1, -0.9 Units
- Golf: 1-1-0, +0.25 Units
- NFL: 1-2-0, -0.85 Units
- NBA: 0-1-0, -1.0 Units
- NHL: 2-0-1, +1.7 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet for Thursday, Jan. 10: Andre Drummond Over/Under 14.5
The Pick: Over 14.5 (-145)
There are only four NBA games tonight, but there's still value to be found on this slate.
In the Kings-Pistons game (10 p.m. ET), Detroit center Andre Drummond will match up against Willie Cauley-Stein, and his rebounding prop looks low. In the NBA Props Tool, we have Drummond projected for 18.1 rebounds.
Drummond leads the league with 15.0 rebounds per game, and he has an elite matchup tonight: The Kings allow an NBA-high 48.5 rebounds per game to opponents.
Specifically, the Kings allow a league-high 12.9 defensive and 5.5 offensive rebounds per game to opposing centers. (Thanks to Action Network Analyst Jay Persson for pointing that out to me.)
In the FantasyLabs NBA Models, Drummond is projected for a robust 36.5 minutes. He should see enough playing time to get his rebounds.
This line is available at Sportsbook. At -145, I’d bet it to 15.0. At 14.5, I’d bet it to -165.
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
