Betting Odds: Golden State Warriors-Philadelphia 76ers
- Spread: Warriors -5
- Over/Under: 238
- Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ABC
>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets
The Warriors dropped two games on their East coast road trip and head into Philadelphia with a half-game lead over the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference standings.
Can the Warriors get a much-needed road win as favorites against the short-handed 76ers?
Our analysts break down all the angles.
Trends to Know
The Warriors have lost back-to-back games for the sixth time this season. Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors have gone 13-4 straight up and 9-8 against the spread in the regular season when on a losing streak. — John Ewing
The Warriors (43-19) and Sixers (40-22) are two of the best teams in the NBA. When two good teams (won at least 60% of their games) play it has been profitable to bet the under presumably because good teams play defense. Since 2005, when two such teams meet the under has gone 871-720-15 (55%). — Ewing
In their last game against the Magic, the Warriors shot 9-of-40 (22.5%) from 3-point range, their third-worst 3-point shooting performance of the season.
Under Kerr, the Warriors have not been able to bounce back and cover the spread efficiently in their next game on the road after a poor 3-point shooting performance in their previous game.
They are 5-11 ATS when they play on the road under Kerr after shooting 25% or lower on 3s in their previous game, losing bettors 6.3 units and making Kerr the third-least profitable coach in the NBA in this spot. — Evan Abrams
Mears: How I'm Betting this Game
It’s going to be really tempting to take the 76ers here. First, the Warriors have been reeling lately, dropping three of their past four and four of their past six. Their last game was particularly brutal: They scored just 96 points in a road loss to the Magic.
Second, Philly got a tough road win the other night in Oklahoma City without Joel Embiid.Further, the Warriors are historically a bad bet because of their overwhelming public support.
They’re just 25-36-1 ATS this season, including 14-17 on the road and 23-33-1 as favorites. If you’ve done nothing but blindly fade the Kevin Durant Warriors, you’ve made some money.
That said, I’m not really buying this improved playing without Embiid for Philly. They happened to catch the Thunder without Paul George, who might be the most impactful player in league.
Without him on the floor, OKC has been 20.9 points per 100 possessions worse than with him on — the highest mark in the league. Embiid’s absence the other night was felt for Philly, but George’s absence was just felt more.
And Embiid is an important guy: Without him, the 76ers have been 15.2 points/100 worse — one of the highest marks in the league. A big chunk of that is on the defensive end, as they really rely on his rim protection in their scheme. If he’s out again today, not having his body patrol the paint against — the Warriors — will be problematic.
Further, the Warriors will get back Kevin Durant (rest) and Andre Iguodala (illness), who are more important than the guys questionable today — Kevon Looney (pelvic) and Klay Thompson (knee). Durant has the highest on/off differential on the team; Klay is actually negative this season, partly due to his defensive slip, but also because of his newfound love of inefficient mid-rangers.
If Durant had played last game and George had played in that Philly matchup, it’s likely the Dubs win and the 76ers lose. What’s the line then for tonight without Embiid — Warriors -7 perhaps?
Just because of those two injuries — which mean nothing for tonight — you’re perhaps getting a little value on the Dubs. As a result, I don’t mind bucking the long-term betting trends on the Warriors and banking on a public/oddsmaker overreaction to the 76ers recent success sans Embiid.
Moore: Why the Value Lies With the Total
With Embiid out, the Sixers aren't the same team. The Sixers' pace has gone up by two whole possessions (which is a lot) in the four games Embiid has missed. Their transition opportunities via Synergy Sports have gone up by nearly one possession per game (again, more significant than it sounds).
Here's the weird thing: the Sixers' offensive rating has been three points worse per 100 possessions with Embiid out of the lineup, and their transition points per possession via Synergy Sports is down to 1.06 from 1.097 for the season. Their defense has been up, giving up 106.4 points per 100 possessions vs. 108.3 on the season.
So you have the Sixers playing at a faster pace with less efficient scoring and more efficient defense. That's just not at all what you would have expected with Embiid out and another reason to always doubt conventional wisdom with the NBA.
The Sixers are averaging 0.743 points per possession in this admittedly small sample without Embiid in pick-and-roll situations. With Embiid out, the Sixers have guys like Mike Scott and Amir Johnson who are slipping most of their picks:
That's making it harder for Butler in pick-and-roll to find opportunities.
The Sixers are also generating three fewer points per game in the post.
Meanwhile, Golden State's defense has been shaky with DeMarcus Cousins on the floor, but so has their offense. The Warriors are 7.7 points worse per 100 possessions with Cousins on the floor offensively. This total at 237 screams some sort of titanic matchup between two high-powered offenses, but in reality, the Warriors have taken their foot off the pedal and the Sixers can't force the same kinds of tough decisions they normally do with their big man.
The under without Embiid has gone 3-1, with the lone over vs. the Blazers with a total of 230. The under since Cousins returned in games he's played in is 9-6.
This looks like a classic case of reality not meeting market expectations based on the standard idea that the defense would be worse without Embiid and the offense maybe being faster. At 238, the under provides the best value based on the trends and the matchup.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
