Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -114 | 228 -110 / -110 | +176 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -108 | 228 -110 / -110 | -210 |
Here's everything you need to know about Warriors vs. Mavericks on Friday, April 5 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.
The Warriors have won six straight, capping off what's been a massive run to boost their playoff odds with a commanding win over the 11th-placed Rockets on Thursday. Now, the test will get tougher on the second night of a back-to-back against the surging Mavericks.
Will Golden State ease off the gas after establishing a four-game cushion in the playoff race, or will it come out hungrier for more in Dallas?
Let's break down the best way to bet on this one below.
Golden State Warriors
Despite losing Jonathan Kuminga to injury, and perhaps Andrew Wiggins as well after the wing played just 23 minutes on Thursday, the Warriors look stronger than ever heading into a crucial part of their schedule. It mirrors their promising run in February to even get into the playoff conversation, though unlike that stretch Golden State hasn't had the benefit of facing some poor or shorthanded teams.
Golden State, aside from wins over the Spurs and Hornets, have run through a gauntlet of opponents over the last couple of weeks and produced some excellent marks defensively. In this time, its defensive rating has plummeted by roughly seven points to grade out as the fifth-best in the NBA, led by some solid defense around the perimeter.
Though they rank around the middle of the league in 3-point defense for the last 14 days, too, the Warriors have had to face some of the strongest teams in the league from outside and have stood up admirably. Given Dallas ranks first in the NBA from long range over the last two weeks and ninth for the season, they'll once again be put to the test.
On the other side of the ball, the Warriors have knocked down 37.8% of their looks from deep to rank just outside the top 10 in the NBA during that time and sit fifth in rim scoring.
It's simply been more of the same in those areas for the 2022 NBA Finals champs, though knocking down 48.6% of shots on the road against a stellar 3-point defense on Thursday was certainly head-turning.
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Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks, as they always have seem to do, are living and dying by the long ball. Their 3-point defense continues to be one of the worst in the league, but they've more than made up for that by shooting 38% from deep on offense and now 42.6% over the past two weeks to sit atop the NBA for that period in time.
Considering nearly half of their shots come from this range, it'll be the most important factor in this matchup, and for that reason I'll have to head to the season series for further examination.
On the surface, you'd have to feel excellent about the sixth-best 3-point defense in the NBA holding Dallas at bay, but given they haven't totally been able to neutralize the 3-ball over their winning streak I think we have to look at how these two sides have matched up.
Well, as fate would have it, both of these teams have shot exactly 39.8% from deep against one another — though Dallas has taken two of the three meetings. Dallas did manage to take its one game at home during this series, shooting just 22.2% from 3-point range to Golden State's 32.1%.
The margins are very slim here, and could come down to the injury report.
Warriors vs. Mavericks
Betting Pick & Prediction
The injury to Kuminga can't be stressed enough as we examine this matchup. Sure, the Warriors managed to edge the Mavericks at home without him, but they still allowed nearly 38% shooting to a visiting team and needed an overwhelming number of triples to drop on their own end to win that one.
Kuminga has ranked inside the top 20% of defenders in terms of Estimated Plus Minus over at Dunks and Threes, and without the luxury of having him switch on to Dallas' many shooters, I think we will see Dallas win what should be a high-scoring shootout.
The season splits would tell you that the Mavericks haven't really had a considerable edge at home, but since the break they are 6-2 straight up with a 1.4 point increase in their shooting accuracy.
Potentially down Wiggins as well after he was eased out of action on Thursday, a tired group of Warriors on the second night of a back-to-back should ultimately succumb to Dallas — something that really should have happened a few nights ago at home anyway as the Mavs rained in threes late to make it a game.
