Check out this post for updated season win total and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.
Warriors Win Total Odds
The Case for the Over
Let’s talk about this in the context of an 82-game season. The pre-free-agency number for the Warriors for an 82-game projection at PointsBet was 49.5. Then Klay Thompson got hurt and the number is 43 for an 82-game season.
But that’s minus Thompson, plus Kelly Oubre and Kent Bazemore.
Thompson is worth a major drop-off. He’s an All-Defense player and the second-best pure shooter in the NBA behind Stephen Curry. But Oubre and Bazemore are going to bring probably 70% of Thompson’s defense at the very least. They’re both plus-defenders.
Bazemore shot 34% from deep last season as he bounced around on bad teams, Oubre shot 35% in Phoenix. I’m not expecting either to crack 40% — but if both got around 37% I wouldn’t be surprised, and that’s all you need.
I tend to think of Andrew Wiggins as a net negative. He has bad defensive instincts and shot selection. But another season in the Warriors' system, and him adopting more of a small forward role, could be huge for the former No. 1 pick.
Speaking of huge, the young man has been in the weight room:
back in business pic.twitter.com/6zHsv88vp6
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) December 3, 2020
Oh, and there’s Curry. There’s been talk of “The Warriors’ stars are in their 30’s now” as if this is somehow meaningful. By 34-36 there’s typically a drop off, but most stars are good up until that point these days with where training and diet can push them.
Curry remains the greatest shooter in NBA history and the most impactful player in the NBA over the past six seasons. The Warriors are simply another monster when he’s on the floor, and he’s expected to be on the court this season.
There were reasons to pull back on both he and Green last year, the plan was always to tank for this year. Thompson’s injury changes their outlook, but the Warriors can’t just pass up this season. They have enough horses to make a run and on any given night; Curry surrounded by good defense can get them a win.
Another way to put this into perspective? The Blazers’ lowest over/under is higher than the Warriors’ highest on the market. How on Earth does that make sense?
The Case for the Under
In the limited sample size of useful minutes from last season, the were not a great team, or a good team, or a decent team with Curry. They lost by 19 to the Clippers on opening night, 28 to the Thunder, and after beating the Pelicans, they lost to the Suns by 11. Then Curry got hurt and the wheels fell off.
In the 139 minutes Curry played last season, the Warriors were outscored by 15 points per 100 possessions. There has long been a debate about whether Curry could raise a terrible team the way other superstars do, even if he raises a great team to best-team-in-the-league status. The returns last season were not good, albeit in just 139 minutes.
The depth still isn’t great.
You can view Oubre and Bazemore as C-grade replacements and maybe that’s the difference. Draymond Green showed signs of defensive degradation in the past few season, and the league is more big-heavy than it was in the Warriors’ heyday.
Golden State plays in the toughest division of the tougher conference basketball and will need to push Curry and Green long minutes to be able to win most nights.
One Curry injury and it’s curtains.
Golden State Warriors Win Total Bet
Over. Over. Over.
I love this over. LOVE it.
Truth be told, I did this last year. I did not expect them to fall apart immediately and then tank the whole year.
But it’s tough to do that two years in a row. Punting on the revenue, in particular, is tough for a franchise in a new swanky building.
Curry is still a top-five talent in this league. He makes everyone better. There are players the Warriors have found last season who range between useful and good (Eric Paschall and Damion Lee). They have enough depth to survive any injury but Curry.
The number on the over is one game above.500. Do you really think the Warriors with Curry are going under .500?
What are we doing here?
