Check out this post for updated season win total odds and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.
Golden State Warriors
- The pick: Under 62.5
- Confidence: 3 out of 10
The case for the under: The Warriors don't want to. They don't care. It's just not useful to them to burn that energy going for wins they don't need. They didn't have homecourt last playoffs, didn't matter. They had injuries last season, didn't matter. The Warriors have no real incentive for avoiding bad losses or pushing for good wins.
Even their usual penchant for punishing would-be contenders fell by the wayside last season with losses to Oklahoma City and Houston. The passion just isn't there anymore. Counting on this team to basically half-ass its way to winning 77% of its games is too much to ask.
The case for the over: The Warriors are the best team on the planet, and they added DeMarcus Cousins. They screwed around all of last year, with significant injuries, and won 58 games. They do not have to try to win 60.
It is here that I want to talk about China, which you may recognize as the most populous nation on Earth. The Warriors visited China for the NBA Global Games last preseason.
Coming off their third straight Finals appearance, the team got very little downtime, almost no practice and conditioning time, and no real rhythm.
The under for win totals on teams that went to China since 2007 went 13-8-1, and 8-3-1 since 2007 via Sports Odds History.
The reality is that the Warriors can not take the regular season seriously, not give their best effort, have injuries, and still cruise over 62.5 wins.
If they decide they want to go for it, they can win however many games that they want (up to about 67).
The verdict:
The Warriors have made the championship race moot, and along with it, it's no fun to really pursue the under or the over. It's either watching another series of blowouts or frustrating losses where clearly the team could try more and does not.
The number is high, the team is bored, but too good to fade. Ugh.
