The Memphis Grizzlies (15-8) and Boston Celtics (19-4) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from TD Garden in Boston. The game will be broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Celtics are 7.5-points favorites over the Grizzlies on the spread (Celtics -7.5), with the over/under set at 236.5 total points. Boston is a -290 favorite to win outright, while Memphis is +235 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Grizzlies vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, December 7.
Grizzlies vs. Celtics Picks, Prediction
Spread
Considering that my model projects Memphis closer to a 5.8 underdog, I have a slight lean toward the visitors at +7.5.
Moneyline
Using a spread of +6, the Grizzlies should be closer to +195 on the moneyline. With BetMGM hanging a rogue number of +220, there is value in Memphis to pull off an upset.
Over/Under
My Celtics v. Grizzlies best bet is on the total at over/under 236.5 points. Given my projection of 232.5 points, I will be taking the under. Although the market has lifted this number up to 236.5, I'm willing to pay to see which side is correct.
My Pick: Under 236.5
Grizzlies vs. Celtics Odds
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 236.5 -110 / -110 | +235 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 236.5 -110 / -110 | -290 |
- Grizzlies vs Celtics spread: Celtics -7.5
- Grizzlies vs Celtics over/under: 236.5 points
- Grizzlies vs Celtics moneyline: Celtics -290, Grizzlies +235
- Grizzlies vs Celtics best bet: Under 238.5
Grizzlies vs. Celtics NBA Saturday
Boston enters this contest on a three-game winning streak and has won 10 of its last 11 games. And while the Celtics remain prodigious with a 19-4 mark, it's not quite to the same extent that we saw last season. For example, Boston's +10.1 point differential is slightly lower than in the previous campaign (+11.4).
Perhaps more importantly, there's even less of a gap between the Celtics and other teams around the league. Last season, only Oklahoma City finished within four points in terms of point differential from Boston. But now, there are as many as six teams within that same range of four points, whether higher or lower than the Celtics.
Therefore, it's reasonable to think that the league may have narrowed the gap against this Boston juggernaut. Nonetheless, I'm fully aware that the Celtics were without their starting center, Kristaps Porzingis, for much of the season due to a foot injury. The Latvian is back with the team but missed Friday's game against the Bucks.
Porzingis hasn't shown much of a drop-off since in the four games he's played thus far. He's averaging 21 points and 7.8 rebounds—slightly higher than his output in the previous campaign (20.1 points, 7.2 rebounds).
The big challenge for the Celtics will be trying to replicate the same hunger and desire that propelled them to their 18th NBA title.
As for the Grizzlies, they finished 13th in the Western Conference last season after back-to-back second-place finishes. Their best player, Ja Morant, missed the start of the season due to a 25-game suspension. By the time Morant returned to action, the Grizzlies were 6-19, and he had managed only nine games before suffering a season-ending injury.
Morant has missed his share of games throughout his young NBA career, and he recently stated that he would no longer try to dunk the basketball due to the risk of injuries to his wiry frame. While NBA fans might bemoan his decision, one can't ignore that Morant is displaying a certain level of maturity to try and remain on the court to help out his teammates.
Even with Morant averaging fewer points (20.9) than his peak from 2021-2023, when he averaged 26.8, the Grizzlies still have a higher Offensive Efficiency than in those two seasons (114.5). As a result, this is a more balanced Grizzlies unit that's still having success without being as reliant on Morant.
Grizzlies vs. Celtics Predictions, Best Bets
With my power ratings pointing to a slight edge on Memphis, our position might be strengthened even further with Boston playing back-to-back nights and having its third game in four days. However, I will not take this Celtics team lightly, as they're a perfect 4-0 when facing a similar spot this season.
However, all four of those opponents (the Nets, Hornets, Clippers and Heat) have a net point differential of -7.8 or worse when compared to Boston.
While I expect the Grizzlies to put forth a more significant effort, I prefer to add a bit of insurance in the form of a BetRiverssame game parlay that takes the Grizzlies up to +10 paired with a play on the under after increasing the total up to 242.
Although I'm still suspicious of this market move that took the total from 232 to 238.5, this is one of those spots where you might want to wait as late as possible before getting involved if the market continues to pile in on the over. The combination of this same game parlay would boost our odds to +150, making it well worth our consideration.
Best Bet: Under 236.5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay: Grizzlies +10, Under 242 points (+150)
