The Memphis Grizzlies (44-32) and Miami Heat (35-41) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Grizzlies are 4.5-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Grizzlies -4.5), with the over/under set at 224.5 total points. Memphis is a -192 favorite to win outright, while Miami is +160 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Grizzlies vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, April 3.
Grizzlies vs. Heat Picks, Prediction
Given the Grizzlies' recent form of just one win in their last eight games, it's difficult to justify laying 4.5 points with them on the road against a Miami team that's starting to peak late in the season. I would not rule out a Heat outright victory in this spot either, as my model makes Memphis only a 1-point road favorite.
My Picks: Heat +4.5 (-110) | Heat Moneyline (+160)
Grizzlies vs. Heat Odds
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 224 -110o / -110u | -192 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 224 -110o / -110u | +160 |
- Grizzlies vs. Heat spread: Grizzlies -4.5
- Grizzlies vs. Heat over/under: 224 total points
- Grizzlies vs. Heat moneyline: Grizzlies -192, Heat +160
- Grizzlies vs. Heat best bet: Heat +4.5, Heat ML
My Heat vs. Grizzlies best bet is on Miami to cover the spread, with the best odds available at Fanatics. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Grizzlies vs. Heat Preview
I'll be the first to raise my hand and acknowledge that I was wrong after backing the Celtics against the Heat last night. Boston never seemed to get going as Miami jumped out to a 20-17 lead in the first quarter and never looked back. Miami's perimeter defense was tremendous, limiting the Celtics to just 12-of-43 (27.9%) shooting on 3-pointers.
At times, you'll get those games from Boston where it just can't seem to find the cup from beyond the arc. The gamble, of course, is that, over time, Boston's aggressiveness from the 3-point line will overwhelm their opponents.
But we must give some flowers to Miami's head coach, Erik Spoelstra. After a 10-game losing streak, Spoelstra has led the Heat to six straight wins by double-digits. During this run, Miami ranks first in Net Rating (+22.2) and Offensive Efficiency (126.6), and it's second defensively (104.4) behind the Thunder.
There's a more controlled aggression with this Heat team, as it seems to be more productive despite attempting fewer shots. For example, since the winning streak, Miami ranks 26th in 3-point attempts (32.0)—five fewer than its season average of 37.3. However, Miami is getting better shots, as it's shooting a league-best 46.9% from long range during that span.
Those numbers highlight an offensive improvement the head coach can tease out of his players. Spoelstra's continuity as Miami's head coach has led to a calmness around the team, even when the future hasn't always looked so bright.
Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, they could use a little bit of patience with their season seemingly spiraling out of control. They recently fired their head coach, Taylor Jenkins, just nine games before the start of the postseason.
In February, the Grizzlies were the second-best team in the West (35-16) thanks to a unique style of play centered on floor spacing and players quickly attacking 1v1 matchups against opponents without a screen so defenses can't get set.
However, despite the initial success, this strategy also led to fewer touches for their best player, Ja Morant, with him having to do more of his scoring off the ball, such as in catch-and-shoot scenarios.
The problem is that Morant is at his best when the ball is in his hands more often, and the offense is run through him. He has never been a great jump shooter, and while the Grizzlies' regime might have concocted this scheme to protect Morant from injuries by limiting his drives to the paint, he has still struggled to stay on the court, appearing in only 46 of the Grizzlies' 76 games.
Currently, there's an internal battle within the Grizzlies on whether they'll carry on with their new playing style or revert to the more traditional pick-and-roll scheme used around the league. That indecision makes the Grizzlies a liability until we see a clear direction of how they plan to move forward.
Grizzlies vs. Heat Betting Predictions
While I like the Heat to win the game, I'll exercise some caution by backing them on the point spread when building my same-game parlay. The second leg of my parlay involves Miami's Bam Adebayo going over his steals + blocks prop of 1.5.
Adebayo has cleared this line in four of his last five games and three previous meetings against the Grizzlies. In those three games, he outperformed this projection by averaging 4.67 steals + blocks. If Morant gets his way and the Grizzlies allow him to take more drives inside the paint, Adebayo will be right there to challenge him.
This Miami team still has very strong defensive principles, and they do an excellent job in funneling their opponents into the paint, where Adebayo awaits as their rim protector. The Kentucky product is a four-time NBA All-Defensive Second Team recipient, and last season he was on the NBA All-Defensive First Team.
Look for Adebayo to continue to be a deterrent as Miami tries to extend its winning streak to seven games.
Best Bets: Heat +4.5 (-110) | Heat ML (+160)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Heat +4.5
- Bam Adebayo Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks
Parlay Payout: +225
Heat vs. Grizzlies Betting Trends
