Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Prediction, Picks for Tuesday, Dec. 19
Here's everything you need to know about Grizzlies vs. Pelicans on Tuesday, Dec. 19 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Grizzlies will play the second leg of a back-to-back when they head to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans. Memphis is coming off a 116-97 loss against the Thunder in Oklahoma City.
It was the Grizzlies' fifth-consecutive loss and second-straight game in which they scored fewer than 100 points.
The good news is that Memphis will get some reinforcements, with star point guard Ja Morant set to return from his 25-game suspension. The bad news is that the Grizzlies' playoff hopes look remote following a 6-19 start to the campaign.
Memphis opened as a six-point underdog, and we've seen that number climb to +8 at some sportsbooks as of this writing. In this preview, I'll explore Morant's impact on the point spread and share why this matchup could be ripe for a different player looking to make his mark.
Let's get to our Grizzlies vs. Pelicans prediction and pick.
For extra value betting Grizzlies vs. Pelicans, use our FanDuel Promo Code and get bonus bets as a new user welcome.
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Prediction
Pick: Zion Williamson over 21.5 points (-125)
Grizzlies Betting Outlook
While Morant is only entering his fifth season, one cannot help but wonder if his off-the-court issues have marred his development. He had one of the biggest jumps in production in his third season, increasing his scoring average from 19.1 to 27.4 en route to winning the NBA Most Improved Player Award.
The Murray State product was approaching superstar status until he started landing in the news for all the wrong reasons.
To understand Morant's value to the point spread, I looked at two different Grizzlies datasets dating back over the past two seasons involving games that Morant played compared to games where he was inactive.
On average, with Morant on the floor, the Grizzlies averaged 3.06 more points per game.
While there are certainly multiple ways to try and find his value, this number is probably about right if you consider Morant in the second tier below some of the game's best players like Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid.
All four players are former MVP winners, but you can probably toss Luka Doncic into the mix there, given his overall value as a scorer, facilitator and rebounder.
However, if Morant can somehow catapult the Grizzlies into serious playoff contention, we might need to consider putting him into the top-tier discussion.
Pelicans Betting Outlook
While Morant's issues have been off the court, it's been the opposite for the Pelicans' Zion Williamson, as injuries have largely hindered the former No. 1 overall pick. Since entering the league in 2019, Williamson has reached the 60-game mark only once.
He missed the entire 2021-22 season and twice played fewer than 30 games.
When healthy, Williamson can be a force on the floor. However, questions about his conditioning and motivation are becoming part of his narrative.
His scoring average is down from 26 to 22.5 — the same mark he posted in his rookie season.
New Orleans needs Williamson to find the form that made him one of the most sought-after players entering the NBA. If he can't get motivated for a game like this in a matchup between the top two picks of the 2019 draft, then the Pelicans have an even bigger problem than I could have imagined.
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Picks, Odds
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 230.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Pelicans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 230.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
There's ostensibly an unknown element here with Morant returning from a lengthy suspension. We'll have to see how many minutes he plays and whether he shows any signs of rust.
As a result, I'm not too interested in getting involved with a side or total here. Instead, I'll look for value in the player props market.
Williamson's scoring prop of 21.5 points at FanDuel immediately caught my eye.
He's coming off a 15-point effort in a 146-110 win over the Spurs on the road. But more importantly, he played only 26 minutes in the blowout and should be relatively fresh to play even longer.
While the Pelicans have, at times, utilized Williamson in a point-forward role, I'd expect him to be more aggressive and look for his shot.
I think we're getting a bit of a discount here with Williamson at this price after he went over his prop just once in his last five games.
