The Memphis Grizzlies (26-15) and San Antonio Spurs (19-20) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Grizzlies are 2.5-point favorites over the Spurs on the spread (Grizzlies -2.5), with the over/under set at 239 total points. Memphis is a -135 favorite to win outright, while San Antonio is +115 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Grizzlies vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for Friday, January 17.
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Picks, Prediction
Spread
With the spread for tonight's matchup close to a pick'em at Memphis -2.5, I prefer to pass on the spread altogether and back the Grizzlies on the moneyline.
Moneyline
Memphis at -135 on the moneyline is too good to pass up. The Grizzlies have won nine of the last 10 meetings in this series, and if they can control the glass, they'll have a good chance to come out with a victory.
Over/Under
Given my projection of 238.6 points, I prefer to pass on the total, with the current number sitting at 239.
My Pick: Grizzlies Moneyline (-135)
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Odds
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 239 -110 / -110 | -135 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 239 -110 / -110 | +115 |
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs spread: Grizzlies -2.5
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs over/under: 239 total points
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs moneyline: Spurs +115, Grizzlies -135
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs best bet: Grizzlies ML (-135)
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Preview
After a day off on Thursday, the Spurs will host the Grizzlies again for the second time in three days. San Antonio lost the earlier meeting 129-115 despite holding a double-digit lead at halftime. Memphis would outscore the Spurs 78-52 in the final two periods.
The Grizzlies can raise the tempo of a game in the blink of an eye, given that they lead the league with 105.1 possessions per game. Even the Spurs, which rank in the top half (13th) of the league defensively, could do little to slow the visitors down.
Memphis did a tremendous job in stifling San Antonio's best player, Victor Wembanyama. The 7-foot-3 center managed only 13 points on 5-of-19 shooting. Wembanyama's 24.7 points per game are almost 10 more than San Antonio's second-leading scorer, Devin Vassell (15.8).
Therefore, if you can slow down the Frenchman, your chances of defeating the Spurs will increase dramatically.
The problem for Wembanyama is that Memphis has a roster that is well-suited to keeping him at bay. While many teams around the league have adopted the idea of playing with a non-traditional center, the Grizzlies have three different 7-footers on their team: Zach Edey (7'4"), Jay Huff (7'1") and Santi Aldama (7'0").
All three players feature regularly for Memphis and average at least 8.8 points per game.
Edey is a rookie, while Aldama is in his fourth year with the Grizzlies after they completed a draft-night trade for him with Utah in 2021. As for Huff, he's on his fourth team in four years but seems to have found his footing in Memphis after the team upgraded his two-way contract to a four-year deal.
These players highlight how well the Grizzlies have recruited and identified talent.
Let's not forget, many pundits felt the Grizzlies reached by selecting Edey with the ninth overall pick. Aldama was the 30th pick in the first round, while Huff went undrafted out of Virginia.
The three players are all of tremendous size and can even offer a perimeter threat. However, neither shoots below 39% from beyond the arc.
Thus, Memphis is very much like a non-traditional team with a bit of an old-school feel in this modern era of basketball. Despite having so many lumbering 7-footers, the Grizzlies still get up and down the court in transition, ranking sixth in fastbreak points (17.2).
Moreover, they're the second-best rebounding team (48.1) in the league and exceptionally skilled on the offensive glass (ranked second), which explains why they trail only the Rockets in second-chance points.
The Grizzlies doubled up San Antonio 14-7 on the offensive glass in the last meeting, and if that trend continues to hold, you have to like their chances in this spot.
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Prediction
After making a case for the Grizzlies to win on the road, I've identified two correlated player props to add to a DraftKings same-game parlay that would boost our odds to +420.
Wembanyama is a player I'd target with his points + rebounds prop available at 29.5. The former first-overall pick hasn't exceeded this number in five straight games and has covered this projection once in five meetings against the Grizzlies.
We highlighted that Memphis has various centers that can defend Wembanyama, which could make it somewhat difficult for him to get into a rhythm.
Wembanyama's season average of 24.7 points and 3.7 assists would fall below this prop line, and against this solid Grizzlies' defensive frontcourt, I think we have an even better chance that he will stay under.
Another Spurs player I'm looking to fade is shooting guard Stephon Castle, who has a rebounds + assists prop of 7.5. Castle's average for this prop is 6.08, with a median of six on the year.
Since he's 6-foot-6, he probably should do better rebounding as a guard. However, if he has yet to show much of an appetite to crash the boards, it's difficult to expect him to make a massive leap against this Grizzlies team that's so dominant on the glass.
Castle is still very much a raw player at just 20 years old. He's shooting just 25.2% from the perimeter, so when he gets the ball in his hands, he's more likely to try and use his quickness to beat his opponent off the dribble and drive into the paint.
With the Spurs running much of the offense through their veteran point guard, Chris Paul, Castle is unlikely to rack up the assists in this spot.
Best Bet: Grizzlies Moneyline (-135)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Grizzlies ML (-135)
- Victor Wembanyama Under 29.5 Points + Assists (-120)
- Stephon Castle Under 7.5 Rebounds + Assists (+105)
Parlay Payout: +420
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Betting Trends
