The Phoenix Suns (26-26) and Memphis Grizzlies (35-17) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET from the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Grizzlies are 4.5-point favorites over the Suns on the spread, with the over/under set at 246 total points. Memphis is a -192 favorite to win outright, while Phoenix is +160 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Grizzlies vs. Suns predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, February 11.
Grizzlies vs. Suns Prediction
Spread
After opening as a half-point favorite, the Grizzlies have moved to as high as -5 at one sportsbook. While I agree with the move, my model projection tops out with Memphis at -3.5.
Moneyline
The best moneyline available for Memphis backers is -185 at bet365. While this price might be a bit steep, it could offer some value as part of a same game parlay.
Over/Under
The total piques my interest, considering that it's been bet up as high as 246. In this preview, I'll explain why such an aggressive line move feels too aggressive, particularly in a game involving the Suns.
My Pick: Under 246 (-110)
Grizzlies vs. Suns Odds, Lines, Picks
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 246 -110 / -110 | -192 |
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 246 -110 / -110 | +160 |
- Grizzlies vs. Suns spread: Grizzlies -4.5
- Grizzlies vs. Suns over/under: 246 total points
- Grizzlies vs. Suns moneyline: Grizzlies -192, Suns +160
- Grizzlies vs. Suns best bet:Under 246 (-110)
My Suns vs. Grizzlies best bet is on the Under at 246 total points, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Phoenix Suns NBA Preview
Bookmakers are making it more expensive to back the over in games involving the Memphis Grizzlies. Although Memphis is the second-most profitable team for over-bettors (33-19, 63.5%) behind Cleveland, its average total (234.5) is actually five points higher than that of the Cavaliers.
Tuesday's matchup will be the second meeting between the Grizzlies and Suns this season. Memphis won the earlier encounter on the road, 117-112.
As for the Suns, they're right at .500 (26-26) for their over-under mark, with an average total for the campaign of around 228.1.
I must admit that I was a bit surprised the game stayed under the total (239) when the two teams met on New Year's Eve.
However, Phoenix did a decent job of limiting the Grizzlies to just eight fastbreak points, considering they average 16.8 fastbreak points per game—the eighth-best mark in the league.
Another factor that could help the game stay under is the Suns' ability to play at their own pace. Phoenix averages 98.42 possessions at home and 98.56 on the road. Those numbers suggest the Suns are a difficult team to speed up, meaning they have a greater chance of dictating the game's pace.
Moreover, if we look at the historical results of Memphis games where the total was bet up after opening at 241.5 or higher, our Action Labs database shows the over is just 1-4.
While it should still be a high-scoring affair, my model projects a total closer to 238.3, giving me a significant value on the current number at 244.5.
My same-game parlay for this matchup is relatively straightforward, as I plan to pair the under with a Grizzlies moneyline victory. We're seeing some buyback on the Suns, with +3.5 and +4 now available in the market.
As stated earlier, +3.5 is right around the number my model suggests, and given that there's not much leeway on the point spread, the moneyline becomes a more viable option.
It's also worth noting that the Suns will be without one of their key players, Bradley Beal, due to a toe injury.
Beal's absence only strengthens our case for the Grizzlies to pull off the road win. Should the game become a one-sided affair, there's always a chance that both teams will empty the bench in the final quarter and just play out the string.
Grizzlies vs Suns Best Bet
- Under 246 (-110)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Under 246
- Grizzlies Moneyline
Parlay Payout: +200
