The Atlanta Hawks (18-17) and Los Angeles Clippers (19-15) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Clippers are 7-point home favorites over the Hawks on the spread (Clippers -7), with the over/under stationed at 227.5 total points. Los Angeles is a -278 favorite to win outright, while Atlanta is +225 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Hawks vs. Clippers predictions and NBA picks for Saturday night.
Hawks vs. Clippers Picks, Prediction
Spread
This point spread has moved from -3 to as high as -7.5 based on the speculation that Kawhi Leonard will make his season debut. However, given the uncertainty of what we can expect from Leonard following an eight-month hiatus, the point spread is an easy pass for me.
Moneyline
Both teams are desperate for a win, considering they've lost back-to-back games by 17 or more points. While the Clippers look like the side most likely to get the victory tonight, there's too much of a premium associated with Leonard's return to warrant a play.
Over/Under
The current total of 227.5 offers some promise. This Clippers team has the fourth-best defense in the league, and since they also rank in the bottom-third in tempo, the under is an angle that may have some value.
My Pick: Under 227.5 (-110)
Hawks vs. Clippers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Hawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 227.5 -110 / -110 | +225 |
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 227.5 -110 / -110 | -278 |
- Hawks vs. Clippers spread: Clippers -7
- Hawks vs. Clippers over/under: 227.5 total points
- Hawks vs. Clippers moneyline: Hawks +225, Clippers -278
- Hawks vs. Clippers best bet:Under 227.5 (-110)
My Clippers vs. Hawks best bet is on the Under at 227.5 total points, with the best line currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Los Angeles Clippers Preview
It's not often that we've seen a Clippers total as high as this one. The only time the Clippers closed with a total of 228 or more points this season was a Dec. 23 game against Memphis.
It's worth noting that if we include that game and the three others for the Clippers that closed with a total of at least 226 points, all four managed to stay under the number.
The average total this year in NBA games is 225.1, yet there's a reasonably wide margin with the Clippers, who come in at 219.2.
Nonetheless, Los Angeles is still one of the two most profitable teams for under-bettors, tied with Charlotte at 63.6% (21-12-1).
Much of the Clippers' defensive success is due to their perimeter defense. Los Angeles ranks fifth in 3-point field goals allowed (12.7), and third opponent 3-point percentage (34%).
When you combine those numbers with an offense that plays slower, you can see why the Clippers tend to play lower-scoring games.
Another reason to like the under is the situational spot, with the Hawks on short rest.
Historically, when Atlanta plays a second game in as many nights on the road against a Western Conference team, the total is 59-46-2 to the under (56.2%). Interestingly, on the two occasions this season when teams faced Los Angeles on the second leg of a back-to-back, the under is a perfect 2-0.
Opposing teams will need some time to get used to the Clippers' new home in Inglewood. The Intuit Dome has all the makings of a proper home-court advantage, with 51 rows of uninterrupted seats (4,500) that make up "The Wall," a section specifically dedicated to only those who can pass a screening test to qualify as the most passionate and rowdiest members of the Clipper fanbase.
Since opponents have to shoot on the opposite side of their bench in the second half, fans within The Wall are incentivized to make as much noise as possible throughout the game, especially when opposing players are shooting fourth-quarter free throws.
Should a player miss two consecutive free throws, attending fans can receive a free chicken sandwich redeemable from Chick-fil-A the following day.
You have to give the Clippers some credit for leaving no stone unturned in constructing their new arena. They will gladly welcome any distraction if it means a more difficult night for the opposition.
Hawks vs. Clippers Predictions, Best Bets
Despite Leonard's likely return, sportsbooks have not posted props for the two-time NBA Finals MVP.
Even if he has fully recovered from his knee injury, it wouldn't surprise me if Leonard shows a bit of rust as the Clippers try to work him back into the mix. Such a scenario should also bode well for this game to stay under the total.
Unfortunately, there aren't many options that jump out to me in terms of putting together a lengthy same game parlay because Leonard is a player I was hoping to fade.
However, one option that piqued my interest is to combine our play on the under with Clint Capela to record one or more turnovers.
Capela has registered at least one turnover in 20 of 35 (57%) games this season, slightly better than the 66% rate he had in the previous campaign. He particularly struggles against defenses ranked in the top 10 for forcing turnovers, as he's committed an error in his last five games in this spot.
Moreover, the Clippers force the third-most turnovers among centers (3.76), making Capela an even more susceptible target.
Combining Capela's turnover prop with our play on the total would result in odds of +170 on our parlay.
Best Bet: Under 227.5
Hawks vs. Clippers Parlay Picks
- Clint Capela Over 0.5 Turnovers
- Under 227.5
Parlay Payout: +170
Clippers vs. Hawks Betting Trends
