The Atlanta Hawks (40-42) will visit the Orlando Magic (41-41) for the first matchup of the NBA Play-In Tournament tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the Kia Center in Orlando, Florida. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Magic are 6-point favorites over the Hawks on the spread (Magic -6), with the over/under set at 219 total points. Orlando is a -230 favorite to win outright, while Atlanta is +190 to pull off the upset.
The Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament is basically “the Southeast Division Tournament” at this point. It seems like every year, teams from this division are pitted against each other for the right to get squashed by the top seeds in the opening round, and this year appears to be no different.
Let's get into my Hawks vs. Magic predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, April 15.
Hawks vs Magic Prediction
My Magic vs. Hawks best bet is on the Under at 219 total points, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Under 219 (-110)
Hawks vs Magic Odds, Picks, Spread
| Hawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 219 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 219 -110o / -110u | -230 |
- Hawks vs. Magic spread: Magic -6
- Hawks vs. Magic over/under: 219 total points
- Hawks vs. Magic moneyline: Hawks +190, Magic -230
- Hawks vs. Magic best bet:Under 219 (-110)
Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic NBA Play-In Tournament Preview
This season hasn’t gone how either of these teams had hoped. Orlando suffered injury-after-injury and wound up with the same broken offense they had last season despite hoping the addition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope would boost them.
The Hawks lost Jalen Johnson, which killed the momentum of their youth group, even as they kept hanging on in the East playoff race until the last of the season. Now these two meet, and we’re faced with a conflicting set of trends to try and sort through.
First off, favorites of less than three full possessions (7 points) are 13-8-1 ATS in the Play-In Tournament. The Under in such games is 15-7 (68%).
The Magic are also an absolute wagon at home. Orlando is 49-32 (61%) ATS at home since the start of last season. But after the All-Star Break this season, the Magic are just 4-4 as home favorites and 6-8 ATS overall. They lost their mojo.
This is just the third game Hawks game this season with a total below 220. The total is 1-1 in those games, and the Hawks are somehow 2-0 ATS in those games, despite not having a great defense. The Magic are 34-33 ATS in such games because in the mud is where they live, like Florida alligators.
Seven seeds are 6-2 in the tournament overall.
Now, let’s talk about some matchups. Orlando’s defense remains elite, especially at preventing three-point attempts. When Atlanta makes fewer than their season average of 13.5 three-point makes, the Hawks are just 15-23 ATS.
Atlanta, meanwhile, is bottom-three in opponent rim field goal percentage and three-point percentage. They allow a ton of shots at the rim, and their only strength, limiting three-point attempts, is only moderate at 13th in 3-point rate.
Orlando is 23-5 this season SU with a +3.7 spread differential (per Cleaning The Glass) against bottom-10 defenses. Their offense is still underwhelming at 22nd, but their defense against those bad defenses is the best in the league. The Hawks are middle of the pack vs. elite defenses, going 11-15 SU with a +0.5 spread differential.
The trends scream that this is a Magic win in an Under game.
My only problem is that full-season numbers don’t support that. Based on full-season power ratings, I make this game Magic -2.5. If this were just a normal regular-season game, I’d be betting on the Hawks. I make the total 227. Even if we just use market ratings, this only tops out as Magic -4.
I’m giving Orlando three full points of bump for having Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner back in the lineup, and I still can’t get to a place where this spread makes sense. Atlanta is also extremely annoying as a road underdog at 18-12 ATS. They just hang around in games they have no business hanging around in.
Hawks vs Magic Betting Predictions
The spread is untouchable. Can't do it. The total, however…
Orlando is just an Under team. Either they’re going to limit the Hawks to less than their team total or the Magic will score under theirs. One way or another, this total is going Under based on all evidence we have.
From there, we look at SU performance. In Play-In games when a team has a better point differential than their opponent and is a favorite at home, they are 11-3 SU. (KillerSports)
Orlando moneyline combined with the Under comes out at +165 as a same game parlay at BetMGM. I like that. But let’s add one more leg on a prop.
The Magic are No. 1 at defensive rebounding. They allow the fewest second-chance points in the NBA per 100 possessions. Onyeka Okongwu is getting all the big minutes.
Taking Okongwu under 14.5 points and under 11.5 rebounds along with Magic moneyline and the Under gets us to +550, which gives us a well-correlated, strong game script parlay for tonight.
Hawks vs Magic Best Bet
- Under 219 (-110)
Hawks vs Magic Parlay Picks
- Magic Moneyline
- Onyeka Okongwu Under 14.5 Points
- Onyeka Okongwu Under 11.5 Rebounds
- Under 219
Parlay Payout: +550
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Magic vs. Hawks Betting Trends
