Heat vs. 76ers Prediction, Picks | Best Bet for Wednesday
Here's everything you need to know about Heat vs. 76ers on Wednesday, Feb. 14 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
Both the Heat and 76ers enter this Valentine's Day matchup on the heels of upset victories. Miami prevailed on Tuesday night in Milwaukee as a 7.5-point underdog, while Philadelphia won in Cleveland on Monday as an 11.5-point underdog. Both teams won without Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid available, and both superstars remain out for this matchup.
Which team has the edge when these shorthanded Eastern Conference foes clash on Wednesday night in Philadelphia?
Let's get to our Heat vs. 76ers prediction and pick below.
Heat vs. 76ers Prediction
Pick: Over 224
Heat Need Herro to Step Up
The Heat should hang in this matchup because of this vulnerable 76ers defense. With Tyrese Maxey, Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne absorbing the majority of guard minutes, the 76ers point of attack is extremely vulnerable.
However, the Heat don’t have a ton of perimeter creators outside of Tyler Herro, as Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier remain out. The Heat will be almost completely reliant on Tyler Herro to make plays at point guard, and Herro has been far from reliable this season. He did finish the Celtics game on an absolute tear as he nearly led the Heat back for the win in the fourth quarter.
The Heat need Herro and Bam Adebayo to shoot efficiently and be aggressive here if they want to pull off this upset. Adebayo has also struggled offensively this year as he ranks third worst in the NBA amongst bigs who have played at least 1100 minutes in Effective Field Goal % (50.7%), above only Jabari Walker and Paolo Banchero, according to Cleaning the Glass.
76ers Offense Remains Efficient
The new-look 76ers picked up a much-needed road upset over the Cleveland Cavaliers as 11.5-point underdogs on Monday night. Hyper-efficient performances from Kelly Oubre and Hield led the way as each scored 24 points on 70% from the field.
The 76ers must be consistently hyper-efficient on offense to win as long as De’Anthony Melton, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington and Joel Embiid remain out of the lineup. Those include arguably their three best defenders, and the 76ers have only further exacerbated their defensive deficiencies by adding Payne and Hield to their rotation.
Nonetheless, this team has a chance to be a top-three offense in the NBA when Embiid returns to the lineup because of Hield's addition. The 76ers currently rank seventh in Offensive Rating, but after adjusting for their easiest schedule of opposing defenses, they fall to 11th in Adjusted Offensive Rating, according to dunksandthrees.com.
Still, with Hield on the floor so far, the 76ers have an Offensive Rating of 121.2 and a Defensive Rating 122.6. This matchup projects to be a favorable spot for the 76ers offense as the Heat allow a ton of 3s and are fairly devoid of guard defenders following injuries to Josh Richardson and Rozier.
The Heat's injury report has resulted in extended minutes for Herro, Duncan Robinson and Jaime Jaquez Jr., all subpar defenders at best. The Heat roster is devoid of speedy guard defenders right now, and that is a problem when trying to matchup with the speedy trio of Maxey, Payne and Hield.
The Heat also rank 28th in opponent 3-point Attempt Rate Allowed, so this should be a favorable spot for 76ers shooters.
Heat vs. 76ers Prediction, Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -108 | 225.5 -112o / -108u | +130 |
| 76ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -112 | 225.5 -112o / -108u | -155 |
Expect points in this one as the 76ers defense is devoid of quality perimeter players while the Heat have similar defensive perimeter shortcomings and are on the second leg of back-to-back games.
The Heat offense just hung 123 points on a the Bucks defense on Tuesday, and they can replicate that efficiency against a worse 76ers defense. As long as Nikola Jovic and Kevin Love continue to be featured for Miami, I will gladly take this over at 223.5.
