The Miami Heat (21-20) and Milwaukee Bucks (24-17) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EST at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Bucks are 7-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Bucks -7), with the over/under set at 224 total points. Milwaukee is a -270 favorite to win outright, while Miami is +220 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Bucks predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, January 23.
Heat vs. Bucks Picks, Prediction
Spread
The thing to note first in this game was that it was originally supposed to be a back to back spot for Milwaukee, but their game against New Orleans last night was postponed for snow.
The Bucks come into this without the expected rest disadvantage. We also know Jimmy Butler was suspended for another two games.
These factors caused the line to move from the open at Bucks -5.5, to now Miami +7.5. I see the change and actually want to fade the movement and back Miami +7.5.
Moneyline
The moneyline of Heat +220 also stands out to me.
Considering the line movement and direction towards Milwaukee, I have not played this yet, but I do plan to before tip off or when a resistance point is met in the market.
Miami has always played the Bucks very well, and they are now clear of the distraction of Butler.
I expect a motivated Miami squad vs. a team a bit out of sorts in Milwaukee. Miami first half and full game moneylines are also very intriguing to me.
Over/Under
The total for this game is 224, and I think that is perfectly priced.
When the Heat are without Butler, they play faster, shoot more 3s, and play worse defense. These are all boosts to the over.
The Bucks are also attempting a ton of 3-pointers with the way they are playing the last six weeks, really since emerging out of their early season hole.
This total is about 3-4 points higher than I would have expected to see it a month ago, and I think the price is right there. No play for me on the total.
My Pick: Heat +7.5 (-115)
Heat vs. Bucks Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 224 -110 / -110 | +220 |
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 224 -110 / -110 | -270 |
- Heat vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -7
- Heat vs. Bucks over/under: 224 points
- Heat vs. Bucks moneyline: Heat +220, Bucks -270
- Heat vs. Bucks best bet: Heat +7.5 (-115)
My Bucks vs. Heat best bet is on Miami to cover the spread at +7.5, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Heat vs. Bucks Preview
My favorite bet for this game is Heat +7.5, which can be found at -115 at a handful of sportsbooks.
Miami has always played Milwaukee well, they have a distinct coaching advantage, are looking to put their distractions behind them, and play really good basketball through Tyler Herro.
I will look to play some ML, some first half exposure, and possibly even some alternate lines.
This is a get-right and upset spot for Miami, as well as a possible distraction-spot for Milwaukee, dealing with a postponed game and a record snow storm while they were already in New Orleans.
Upset alert in Milwaukee.
Heat vs. Bucks Prediction
My same game parlay for tonight's contest is going to be Heat moneyline, as well as some player props featuring their stars to preform.
Tyler Herro is likely on his way to an All-Star game, and I think he can easily put up 30+ in this matchup.
Bam should grab 8+ rebounds, especially if the Heat can keep this close.
I expect Adebayo to put extra emphasis into rebounding going against a Giannis-led Bucks squad, where possessions will be a top priority.
Best Bet: Heat +7.5 (-115) at BetMGM
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Heat Moneyline (+220)
- Tyler Herro Over 24.5 Points (+120)
- Bam Adebayo Over 8.5 Rebounds (-115)
Parlay Payout: +674
Bucks vs. Heat Betting Trends
