The Miami Heat (24-23) and Chicago Bulls (21-29) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at the United Center in Chicago, Ill. The game will broadcast live on CHSN.
The Heat are 4-point favorites over the Bulls on the spread (Miami Heat -4), with the over/under set at 228.5 total points. Miami is a -174 favorite to win outright, while Chicago is +146 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Bulls predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, February 4.
Heat vs. Bulls Picks, Prediction
Spread
The spread for this game opened at Heat -4, which was an immediate best bet for me. The Miami Heat are playing well, have won three of their past four and are taking on a Bulls team that just traded its best player — Zach LaVine.
The Bulls received back Kevin Huerter, Tre Jones and Zach Collins, but I don't expect them to be active right away. The Bulls should have a shortened rotation while adjusting to the loss of their most talented player. If you analyze the deal, it was made to lose now and build for the future.
The Bulls enter tank mode while Miami is still very engaged. In fact, it is probably a boost for Miami to be on the road right now because they get to get away from all the Jimmy Butler drama and be isolated with the guys they know are going to be there.
Moneyline
The moneyline is priced at Miami -174, and while I really like Miami, I much prefer to play this against the spread at -110. Moneyline and spread values are proportionally priced, meaning the value of laying four points roughly equates to the added 50 cents in the vig.
However, since the Bulls play with the a top-three pace in the league, and since 1-3 are not key numbers in the NBA, the variance in outcomes is higher and it is unlikely this lands 1 through 3. I am probably typing it into existence and jinxing myself, but the value play here is clearly the spread.
Over/Under
The total for this game is 228.5 and I would only look toward the over. The Bulls play so fast and the Heat should be expected to remain a faster team without Butler, who is an efficient scorer, but slows the game down and is also an elite defender.
When Butler is out, the offense runs through Herro and Rozier, which speeds the game up, and includes Duncan Robinson on the wings, who is always ready to catch 3s and put them up quickly.
My Pick: Miami Heat -4
Heat vs Bulls Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 228.5 -108o / -112u | -174 |
| Bulls Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 228.5 -108o / -112u | +146 |
- Heat vs. Bulls spread: Heat -4
- Heat vs. Bulls over/under: 228.5 points
- Heat vs. Bulls moneyline: Miami -174, Chicago +146
- Heat vs. Bulls best bet: Heat -4
Heat vs. Bulls Preview
Lets talk about the LaVine trade. The most notable aspect for Chicago was a move to get rid of its best player, and return their own pick for this upcoming draft and remove the protections they had on it.
The Bulls just took talent off their roster and exchanged it with unimpacted rights to their own draft pick. They are signaling that the rebuild is starting now — finally!
Bulls fans have been clamoring to turn the page for years, but they were stuck as a play-in team, unable to dip back or step up. They have chosen a path, and its going to be a step back. Lets get in front of the market adjusting to this and play Heat ATS.
Heat vs. Bulls Prediction
I am always watching basketball, so I have seen a couple of the Heat games since the story dropped about Rozier and the betting scandal related to Jontay Porter. Rozier is still playing, and I think he knows he is being watched closely right now, because he is noticeably playing so hard.
It's not narrative, its incredibly obvious when watching the games. Against the Bulls, who play fast, there should be a lot of counting stats put up. If you are into parlays, stack some Rozier overs with Miami to cover.
Best Bet: Miami Heat -4
Same Game Parlay Picks
Heat -4
Rozier Over 14.5 Points
Parlay Payout: + 237 (FanDuel)
Bulls vs Heat Betting Trends
