The Miami Heat (0-1) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (1-0) will meet for Game 2 of their first round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Cavaliers are 12-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Cavaliers -12), with the over/under set at 212 total points. Cleveland is a -700 favorite to win outright, while Miami is +500 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Cavaliers predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, April 23.
Heat vs Cavaliers Picks, Prediction for NBA Playoffs Game 2
Spread
This all comes down to whether or not the Heat will manufacture the three-pointers necessary to compete. Last game, they didn't, and it came back to bite them.
Thirty-one of the Heat's 80 shots came from deep in that game. That isn't enough. They shot 43 of their 75 shots from beyond the arc in a Game 2 road spot in Boston last year, their only win of the series.
I'm not moved by the spread, but the moneyline is intriguing to me.
Moneyline
I'm tempted by the moneyline (again) because of the variance Miami could attempt to create, Erik Spoelstra being… well… Erik Spoelstra, and the fact that I think the Cavaliers drop one here en route to a 4-1 winner.
I'm passing for now, but may log closer to tip.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the total in this Game 2 matchup.
My Picks: Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Rebounds (-115), Tyler Herro Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-105)
Heat vs. Cavaliers Odds for Wednesday, April 23
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 212 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 212 -110o / -110u | -700 |
- Heat vs. Cavaliers spread: Cavaliers -12
- Heat vs. Cavaliers over/under: 212 total points
- Heat vs. Cavaliers moneyline: Heat +500, Cavaliers -700
- Heat vs. Cavaliers best bets: Tyler Herro Over 2.5 3PM, Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Rebounds
Heat vs. Cavaliers Game 2 Preview
I like two props in this game. The first is Tyler Herro over 2.5 3s. I outlined the variance earlier. He would be a big part in why the Heat would attempt more triples.
In fact, Herro went 3-for-6 last game in a low-volume affair from the perimeter, and in last year's upset over Boston, where the Heat jacked up 43 three-pointers, Herro went 6-for-11 from downtown, shooting roughly a quarter of the team's attempts from long range.
I'm expecting him to be around that 8-10 attempt mark at least, so three makes is in range again.
I also like Jarrett Allen over 10.5 rebounds. This may be an Allen rebound leader series.
Evan Mobley could always get his, but Allen is going to be home (inside the paint) more and have those opportunities on the glass. Allen is also just the best rebounder in the series.
The Heat start Bam Adebayo and Kel'el Ware. Ware is an inconsistent (and very talented) rookie who may get shelved again like he did in Game 1 when he played just 20 minutes and was a non-factor.
This reverts back into the old Heat defense where Adebayo is switching like a madman while attempting to cover up everyone's mess — and he often does because he's a walking top-10 defense.
All of that bodes well for Allen on the glass. There's also the possibility that Allen could push Ware around with less Adebayo in the paint.
Heat vs. Cavaliers Best Bets for Game 2
- Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Rebounds (-115)
- Tyler Herro Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-105)
Heat vs. Cavaliers Game 2 Parlay Picks
- Tyler Herro Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
- Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Rebounds
Parlay Payout: +274 at DraftKings
Cavaliers vs. Heat Betting Trends
