The Miami Heat (20-17) and Los Angeles Lakers (20-16) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. The game will broadcast live on SportsNet LA and NBA League Pass.
The Lakers are 5.5-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Lakers -5.5), with the over/under set at 216 total points. Los Angeles is a -220 favorite to win outright, while Miami is +180 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Lakers predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, January 15.
Heat vs. Lakers Picks, Prediction
Spread
Given that my model makes Miami closer to a 2.5-point underdog, we're getting some value from the visitors at the current +5.
Moneyline
After identifying an interesting angle involving the Lakers, I will shift my focus on this matchup to the point spread.
Over/Under
Based on my projection of 219 points for this contest, I would lean to the over.
My Pick: Heat +5.5
Heat vs. Lakers Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 216 -110 / -110 | +180 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 216 -110 / -110 | -220 |
- Heat vs. Lakers spread: Lakers -5.5
- Heat vs. Lakers over/under: 216 total points
- Heat vs. Lakers moneyline: Lakers -220, Heat +180
- Heat vs. Lakers best bet: Heat +5.5
My Lakers vs. Heat best bet is on Miami to cover the spread at +5.5, with the best line is available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Heat vs. Lakers Preview
On Wednesday night, the Lakers will play their second game after having two postponed due to the wildfire tragedy in Los Angeles. It would be particularly harsh to fault the players if their minds were on other important matters on Monday against the Spurs when they suffered a 126-102 defeat at home.
The loss extended the Lakers' losing streak to three games and marked a second straight defeat by 20 or more points.
Despite their 20-17 record, the Lakers have the third-highest Luck Factor (+3.4) of any team in the league. And if you look at ESPN's Relative Percent Index, which tracks expected wins and losses, the Lakers should be closer to a 15-22 team.
Thus, you can imagine my surprise when I saw the Lakers laying as many as five points in this spot against the Heat.
During the offseason, there was plenty of talk about the unconventional decision to hire the player turned broadcaster JJ Redick as a first-year head coach. Redick was viewed as a visionary for his ability to break down film and discuss the game's subtle nuances.
However, all that's fine and dandy when giving your opinion outside the fray. Things are slightly different when you find yourself occupying the proverbial hot seat.
The Lakers have the worst Net Rating (-3.0) among teams with a winning record. Their offensive and defensive efficiency metrics have declined since Redick took over for the ousted Darvin Ham. The defense is perhaps the most worrying sign because, at times, it almost boils down to simply giving more effort on the court.
Los Angeles's Defensive Rating went from 17th last year to 24th under Redick, and that's not a characteristic you'd readily associate with a good team.
In recent years, the Lakers' struggles were primarily attributed to injuries to their star players, LeBron James and Anthony Davis. But both players have already featured in at least 90% of the Lakers' games this season.
My handicap is primarily centered on the Lakers because we have a team here that I can't justify laying this many points within such a price range.
The line opened with the Lakers as a -3.5 point favorite, and according to our Action Labs database, they're just 1-8 against the spread this season when they've been bet up in the market. This angle is also on a 0-5 skid.
Lastly, Miami is 2-2 in its last four meetings in Los Angeles, and neither loss was by more than three points.
Heat vs. Lakers Prediction
One thing we know about the Heat is that it will look to stifle the opposition defensively. Miami ranks in the top 10 for Defensive Efficiency (110.6) and the top half for forcing opponent turnovers (14.9).
Lakers power forward Rui Hachimura is a player who could come under pressure from Miami's active defenders.
Hachimura has registered at least one turnover in 22 of 32 games this season, including a streak that dates back nine games.
Moreover, Hachimura turned the ball over at least once in seven of eight games against Miami in his career.
Hachimura's turnover prop is 0.5, and given the opponent in this spot, the over certainly looks attainable.
Although his odds are as high as -170, when combined with Miami to cover the +5 spread, we get a decent same-game parlay boost with odds at +200.
Best Bet: Heat +5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Heat +5
- Rui Hachimura Over 0.5 Turnovers
Parlay Payout: +200
Lakers vs. Heat Betting Trends
