Heat vs. Nets Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview

Heat vs. Nets Odds

The Miami Heat travel to Brooklyn to face off against the Nets in both teams' last game before the All-Star break. The two teams are separated by just 1.5 games in the Eastern Conference standings with less than a quarter of the season left.

Can this new version of the Nets hold off the Heat in the Eastern Conference standings? Here's a look at the odds and a betting prediction for Heat vs Nets.

Miami Heat

The Heat will limp into the break with Tyler Herro (knee), Victor Oladipo (ankle), Kyle Lowry (knee), and Nikola Jovic (back) all missing tonight's game and Duncan Robinson (finger) is questionable. Miami will need strong efforts from both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in this contest.

The Heat have struggled offensively all season and it has pulled down their overall advanced metrics. On the season, Miami is 18th in Adjusted Net Rating despite having the fourth-best Adjusted Defensive Rating (111.4). They simply cannot score efficiently and have the 21st-ranked Adjusted Offense (113.3), per Dunks And Threes. Miami did nothing to address these offensive deficiencies at the trade deadline so we will keep tabs on how that works out for them.

Miami has found success with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo on the floor though, with those lineups holding a +9.2 point differential. The problem? As soon as you removed Tyler Herro from that equation those lineups plummet in rating to +1.6. Herro is arguably Miami's best offensive player and without his contributions, this team will struggle to score.

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Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have completely revamped their roster at the trade deadline and I wrote about that at length in my Weekly Player Props Forecast. The team is now headlined by Spencer Dinwiddie, Mikal Bridges and Nic Claxton and this team's defense has the potential to be excellent.

Seth Curry's return, albeit on likely limited minutes, would cut into Cam Thomas, Royce O'Neal, and Joe Harris' time on the floor. We've already seen Ben Simmons have his minutes dramatically slashed, I'm curious if he gets an opportunity at all tonight or if the team may remove him from the rotation entirely.

Since the trade deadline, Brooklyn is just 1-2; however, they ran into both the 76ers and the Knicks, two teams that are both in the top 10 in Adjusted Net Rating. Those were going to be tough games for a team that was just completely restructured.

The Nets are trying to figure out what exactly works for them and that type of instability and lack of chemistry can lead to breakdowns offensively; however, with so many strong individual defenders, the defense has held up.

These are all admittedly small sample sizes; however, when Dinwiddie, Bridges, and Claxton have shared the floor the Nets are allowing just 94.9 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. Dinwiddie is not a strong defender; however, he plays enough team defense for this to be notable.

Heat-Nets Pick

This matchup pits two teams that struggle to score against each other. Additionally, Miami plays at one of the slowest Paces in the league and Brooklen has played at the fifth-slowest Pace since the trade deadline, per NBA Advanced Stats.

I expect points to be at a premium tonight as both teams search for offense with more defensive-minded players on the floor. I took the under at 217.5 in what should be a slow-paced game, but that line is down to 212 across the market. However, I think there's still value on the Heat team total at 106.5.

Pick: Heat Under 106.5

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