The Miami Heat (17-17) and Golden State Warriors (18-17) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Warriors are 9.5-point home favorites over the Heat on the spread, with the over/under set at 215.5 total points. Golden State is a -425 favorite to win outright, while Miami is +330 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Heat vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday night.
Heat vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks
Spread
The spread for this game opened at Warriors -7 or 7.5 depending on the book, but has already climbed to -9.5 at most shops as of Tuesday morning. It is the second night of a road back to back for the Heat after playing Sacramento on Monday night, in a game that went to double overtime!
However, it is important to note that the Kings-Warriors back to back for visiting teams requires no travel. The arenas are 40 minutes apart and the team hotel is positioned in the middle, so its the same stay and just different 20 minute team bus ride to the arena.
But it is tough to overcome the fatigue of a double overtime game, especially one that ended in a loss for Miami.
Both teams are struggling right now, and the game is shaping up to be an Under spot, so I like the Heat with the points at these really steep numbers.
I think first half spread is a decent look as well because of the back to back for Miami, perhaps they get tired legs late and we know Golden State is such a strong 3rd quarter team historically.
Moneyline
If I am interested in taking Miami ATS, then I am also interested in tacking on a little moneyline exposure.
As long as the guys are active, the Heat still have an elite scorer in Tyler Herro, an elite defender in Bam Adebayo, and a bevy of role players that can keep up with Steph Curry, Draymond Green and company on the Warriors side.
If you bet on the Heat to cover the spread or Heat 1H ATS, look to correlate that with the same ML position and split up the unit 75% spread and 25% ML.
Over/Under
The total set for this game is 215.5 and seems to be stagnant there. I personally like the over, but think its more of an under market, especially considering the Heat schedule spot, so its a total stay away for me.
The Heat total sometimes drops without Jimmy, but in reality he is a staunch defender, a slow paced offensive player, and gets replaced by more Duncan Robinson minutes which means electric 3-point shooting, quick catch and shoot releases, and worse defense.
Jimmy is an Under player, so I like going Over when he is out. This market likely stays under tonight though, and the reasons are beyond one players impact, so I'll skip a play on the total.
My Pick: Heat First Half Spread +5 (-110)
Heat vs. Warriors Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 215.5 -110 / -110 | +330 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 215.5 -110 / -110 | -425 |
- Heat vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -9.5
- Heat vs. Warriors over/under: 215.5 points
- Heat vs. Warriors moneyline: Warriors -425, Heat +330
- Heat vs. Warriors best bet: Heat 1H +5 (-110)
My Warriors vs. Heat best bet is on Miami to cover the first half spread at +5, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Preview
The big news surrounding the Heat continues to be the Jimmy Butler saga, and despite him not being on the road trip with the Heat, the noise will be loud about Butler all day again Tuesday.
In fact, the Warriors are a team possibly in pursuit of Butler's services!
I do not like the principle of fading the team with public drama, because it can become a very public side.
That being said, the Heat just lost by 40 to the Jazz, and then again on the road in Sacramento in a double overtime game, so it is hard to decipher if this Miami team is truly in turmoil or a good buy-low at the moment.
Because of the strength of Erik Spoelstra's coaching for Miami, I think they get out of the rut sooner than they dig themselves a deeper hole.
Heat vs. Warriors Best Bets, Predictions
My best bet for this game is the Heat +5 on the first half spread.
The Heat will have tired legs on the second leg of a road back to back coming off a double overtime game, and the Warriors historical tendency to be explosive after the halftime break, I'll just stick to playing the front end of the game.
If you want to go for a fun parlay, consider Miami to win the first half but Golden State to win the game at +550. This fits all the schedule and play style criteria and could pay out big if all goes accordingly.
Best Bet: Heat 1st Half Spread +5 (-110)
Heat vs. Warriors Parlay Picks
- Heat First Half Moneyline (+190)
- Warriors Moneyline (-425)
Parlay Payout: +550
Heat vs. Warriors Betting Trends
