Taken at face value, Monday's game between the Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers might not stand out among the rest of the games on the schedule.
But tonight's game has a decent chance of deciding the 2022 NBA MVP with about 15 games left for frontrunners Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic.
Embiid entered the game as the NBA's leading scorer (29.8 PPG) and the favorite at nearly every sportsbook, ranging as high as -145 and as low as -115. Jokic was just behind him with odds that ranged from +125 to +150 and leads the league in nearly every advanced metric: Player Efficiency Rating (32.5), Win Shares (12.6), Box Plus/Minus (13.9) and Value Over Replacement Player (8.1).
So how much did their matchup change the MVP odds?
2022 NBA MVP Odds — Pregame
| Book | Joel Embiid | Nikola Jokic |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -145 | +145 |
| PointsBet | -115 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -130 | +140 |
| Caesars | -120 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +145 |
| Bet365 | -130 | +140 |
| WynnBet | -125 | +125 |
| Parx | -125 | +125 |
| FoxBet | -133 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -125 | +125 |
After falling behind by as many as 19 points in the first half, Jokic and the Nuggets came back to make it a game after halftime and eventually got the close win thanks to their bench.
In the battle of the MVP candidates, Embiid had the better scoring numbers head-to-head (34 points to 22 points), but Jokic had the better all-around game with 13 rebounds and 8 assists.
2022 NBA MVP Odds — Postgame
| Book | Joel Embiid | Nikola Jokic |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -145 | +140 |
| PointsBet | -120 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -130 | +140 |
| Caesars | -125 | +145 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +145 |
| Bet365 | -200 | +140 |
| WynnBet | -120 | +165 |
| Parx | -136 | +130 |
| FoxBet | -200 | +160 |
| BetRivers | -136 | +130 |
Generally, odds didn’t move precipitously from market prices pregame.
The most substantial changes came from WynnBet and FoxBet — two of the least popular sportsbooks across the country.
WynnBet currently has Embiid at a similar, -120 line, but Jokic's MVP odds lengthened all the way to +165 from its previous mark at +125. That's, of course, despite the Nuggets victory.
Meanwhile, at FoxBet and Bet365, Embiid went to a whopping -200 from his previous mark at -133. In a corresponding move, Jokic moved from a +150 underdog to a +160 one.
The Sixers have 15 games left for Embiid to make his case, but their remaining strength of schedule (.518, 11th-toughest) is much more difficult than the Nuggets' road over the next 13 games (0.447), which is the second easiest according to Positive Residual.
