The NBA season is back! So of course, the Sixers are injured.
The Philadelphia 76ers announced Monday that two of their three big stars will miss Wednesday's season opener against the Milwaukee Bucks. Neither Joel Embiid nor Paul George will play.
Embiid is reportedly "ramping up" to play after playing for Team USA in August, and George suffered a knee injury late in the preseason. Embiid is expected to miss at least the first week of the season, while George will be re-evaluated later this week.
So, how should you approach betting on the Sixers this week?
A power rating is a projection of how much a team should be favored against an average opponent on a neutral court.
Last season, using Estimated Plus Minus and Estimated Wins data from last season at DunksAndThrees.com, I projected Embiid to be worth 4.4 points to the spread. That's lower than some of his MVP contemporaries, but it's impacted by his minutes and game limitations. I projected him to lead the league in spread value at 11.5 points per 36 minutes. That number is impacted by a weaker schedule in the games he played, however, so we're going to use the 4.4 figure.
That doesn't mean you should just drop the Sixers 4.4 points for Embiid, however. Embiid's backup, Andre Drummond, was worth +2.2 to the spread last season per 36 minutes and will now see more minutes. That leaves us with a -2.2 off the Embiid injury, which is probably a little light, but the Sixers do have some other talent.
George was worth 5.4 points to the spread last season for the Clippers, but played a larger role than he will this season with the Sixers. Kelly Oubre Jr., who should get most of George's minutes, along with Eric Gordon, was worth +1.2, while Gordon was worth +0.8.
So in total, the Sixers are losing roughly 9.8 (with Embiid likely worth more than the 4.4 and George worth a little less on this team), with a +4.2 positive adjustment for the replacements (again, that's based on last season's numbers).
That gives us a -5.6 downgrade to Philadelphia, which seems right. (You can bump Embiid up or George down based on whatever process you want.)
For my current power ratings, that makes the Sixers +0.5 against a neutral team, expected to win 42.4 games across the course of 82 games under those conditions.
If you think that per-36 number for Embiid at 11.5 is closer to his value, that would make the downgrade a full 12.7 points to the spread. (Again, this data is messy with George in a different role and Embiid playing against a weak schedule early in the season before his injury.)
The opener for Bucks-Sixers on Tuesday opened at Sixers -4.5 and moved to Sixers +3.5 after the injury news came out, reflecting an eight-point adjustment to the spread. That's going to put value on the Sixers per my adjustment of 5.6.
Last season, without Embiid and with Tyrese Maxey (who is expected to play Wednesday), the Sixers were 14-20 straight up and 16-18 ATS. That, however, doesn't account for George's injury, as the players whose salary he replaced are elsewhere.
After adjusting for Khris Middleton's injury absence, I make this line Bucks -2.3, putting about a point of value on the Sixers, which isn't enough to get me involved. If you think any of those above calculations should be higher or lower, that should impact your betting.
However, one more interesting trend. When Embiid didn't play last season, the under was 22-12 (35.3%). Fully healthy and based on last season's numbers, I have the total at 234 vs. a total of 225, but Embiid and George make up a huge chunk of the Sixers' offensive advantage. They're both also good-to-great defenders, which counter balances.
I lean toward the under for Sixers vs. Bucks and slightly toward the Sixers, especially if they are bet up north of four points. But all of this goes to show how complicated it is to get an accurate assessment of the Sixers and who they will be this season.
