What does it take to win MVP in the NBA today?
Many NBA awards often come down to a narrative, and MVP is no different. Last year was largely a referendum on 2023: after Joel Embiid won over Nikola Jokic, Jokic tore through the playoffs and won the NBA title in 2023. Going into last year, the Nuggets had a fantastic season, Jokic put up similarly great stats, and won his third NBA MVP.
- They put up numbers: Scoring matters: Steve Nash is the only MVP to average less than 23 points per game of the last 30. Every MVP has also averaged at least 11.7 rebounds + assists, and 17 straight have averaged at least 1 steal per game.
- They are in their prime: By basketball reference age, 16 of the last 18 MVPs have been between 24-28 in the season when they won. We have one MVP at 22 (Derrick Rose, when LeBron was a villain) and Kobe Bryant at 29.
- They were great the prior year: Other than Derrick Rose, every player finished top 9 in MVP voting the year before, and they finished on 1st or 2nd team all NBA. Players don't come out of nowhere.
- They were the clear #1 on their team: 16 of the last 18 MVP winners had the second leading scorer on their team score fewer than 1500 points on the season. The two exceptions are Steph Curry's MVPs. 1500 points is less than 20 points per game.
- Their teams are good: Even though we have now had a few MVPs from lower seeded teams, every winner's team has won at least 47 games.
- They are efficient: 15 of the last 18 MVPS have had a true shooting percentage of at least 60%, and all 18 have been at least 2% points over the league average. The last 12 MVPS have all had a percentage of at least 60%, and at least 6% over the league average. Last year, the league average was 58%, so the ideal candidate we'd expect to shoot 64%.
- They made a huge difference on the team: Going by plus/minus on cleaningtheglass.com, the average on/off differential for the MVPs was +12.3. 16/18 had an on/off +/- of at least +5, and 12/18 were at least +10. If you instead look at how well the team played when they were on the floor, the team's net rating was at least +7 in 17/18 winners. For reference, only three teams had a +7 net rating last year. 15 players in the NBA finished with an on/off differential of at least +10 last year.
The ideal candidate will meet all of the criteria set by the league and the standard of previous winners, plus have room to improve, and be poised to see the narrative. Who are the candidates? Let's run through them, divided into categories, with their best odds and age this upcoming season:
Didn't Make All NBA 1st or 2nd Team Last Year:
Joel Embiid (+650, 30): I covered this last year, but there have only been 2 MVPS who played 70 or fewer games (or equivalent) and won MVP: Embiid (66 in 2023), and Bill Walton (58 in 1978). Embiid's career high for games played in a season is 68. We should not expect him to play over 70 games, and it would be foolish for the 76ers to push him, as they are contending for a championship and he has never been healthy for the playoffs. He should be closer to +3000.
Victor Wembanyama (+2500, 21): Wemby is a real candidate for this award. He is incredible, will undoubtedly take a leap in his second season, and was already amazing last year, finishing second in DPOY. The Spurs, however, don't look like a playoff team, even with his brilliance, and he is still really young. It may be inevitable he wins in the future, but not yet.
Ja Morant (+5000, 25) and Zion Williamson (24, +10000): They both fit in the age range and are poised to be the key players on good teams. But both have struggled with health and staying on the court. I think they could have huge seasons. Their supporting casts are stronger than usual for an MVP candidate, and combined with the constant questions surrounding these two, I don't think either is bettable at this moment.
Tyrese Haliburton (+10000, 24): Haliburton was incredible before his injury last season. The Pacers were an offensive powerhouse, and he was efficient and elite. It's not hard to see Haliburton winning an MVP one day in a similar vein to Steve Nash: as an incredibly efficient point guard on a great team.
But Haliburton has injury problems, struggles to stay healthy, and is a pass-first player. It's also easy to remember Nash, but Chris Paul had incredible season after season as a pass-first point guard and never won an MVP.
Glaring Flaw All-NBA:
Kevin Durant (36, +8000): Durant is way past his prime, and would be the oldest MVP we've had. The chances are done.
Kawhi Leonard (33, +10000): Kawhi is past his prime, and consistently struggles to stay healthy. Last year's 68 games were his highest since 2017.
Anthony Davis (31, +15000): AD is the second-best player on his team, not an offensive fulcrum, and doesn't meet the age.
Jayson Tatum (26, +2800): Tatum was +900 entering last season and is coming off an NBA championship. How could his odds be longer? Tatum is a perennial all-NBA candidate, but he has a strong supporting cast and didn't win either playoff MVP award last year. Whether or not it's true, the gap between him and Jaylen Brown doesn't seem large, and barring too many injuries to the rest of the guys, he won't win.
Past MVPs:
Giannis Antetokounmpo (30, +750): Giannis has now finished top 5 in MVP 6 times in a row. The Bucks were a disaster last season, especially from a coaching standpoint, and with the steadiness of Doc Rivers it seems likely the team will be better.
I have a few real reservations which led me to pass on betting on Giannis. First, he has two high-scoring running mates in Middleton and Dame. Second, his health track record isn't great. He has played 73 or fewer games in each of those 6 seasons, and similar to Embiid, after an injured playoffs the goal is for him to be healthy by the time the playoffs arrive. Third, Giannis is just outside the age curve (which also goes back to health). Finally, Giannis struggles from a narrative: voters have already given him 2 MVPs, and it would take an outrageous season for them to give him another.
Nikola Jokic (29, +360): Last year, I bet Jokic at +450 because he was guaranteed to be the favorite at some point. This could be true again this year.
But the narrative is not in his favor. Voters are once again going to be hesitant to give him another MVP and will look for other candidates as much as possible. I don't think he has enough support and is the clear number one, and is still thought of as the best in the NBA. I think Jokic is likely still the best player in the NBA this season. But 82 games is a long season, and the narrative is against him in every way this year. The Nuggets are going to be worse, and he is going to have less help than ever. In 2022, during the season Jokic won his second MVP, the odds fluctuated all season as voters kept looking to someone other than Jokic to win. Embiid, Giannis, Booker, and Luka got hurt and played under 70 games, and voters reluctantly gave it to Jokic. If there weren't four players below, who were in their prime and ready, I'd be willing to bet him. I have his chances to win much lower than these odds imply.
This brings us to 4 remaining candidates, all in their prime, on good teams, where they are the clear best players, and who made all NBA last year.
Efficiency and Distribution Problems:
Jalen Brunson (28, +3000): Brunson was insanely good last year. He finished 5th in MVP voting and led the Knicks to the 2 seed in the east. The Knicks should be even better, and Brunson carries a big offensive burden. The Knicks are shooting for a championship, and Brunson is the offensive engine. The Knicks were also incredible last year when Brunson played: they were 14.5 points better when he was on versus off the floor (4th in the NBA), and their team net rating was +9.1.
Brunson would need to take another leap to win MVP (which could be possible). His assist and rebounds average is a little low (10.3), and if Randle or Bridges play enough games, either of them could easily cross the 1500-point threshold. Brunson suffers from not being considered as good as the next three players. He is a high-volume, slightly above-average efficiency player, and those players have a hard time winning: he is right under 60% TS most seasons. I'm eyeing the Knicks as a great team, but I can't get on the Brunson MVP train.
Anthony Edwards (23, +1600): Edwards had an incredible playoff, and the impression of Edwards after the Denver series was one of the top 5 players in the NBA. Whether or not to bet on Anthony Edwards for MVP is the most important question when it comes down to voting.
My concerns with Edwards are on the offensive end. Edwards had his best offensive season of his career last year, and had a true shooting percentage of 57.5%, below league average. He has always been higher in the playoffs, but some players struggle to carry that over to the regular season (like Jamal Murray) and I don't expect him to either.
His MVP case actually would look a lot like Derrick Rose in 2011. Rose was the offensive fulcrum for a defensive first team, and they had the best record in the NBA and Rose won an MVP in response. But, Rose also had the backlash of LeBron James in his favor, and I think the last two candidates will benefit more from voter fatigue for Jokic. Rose also had a plus/minus differential of only +1.3: Edwards was at +3.8 last year, well below the expectation for most MVPs.
However, if Edwards's offensive efficiency greatly improves, he would score more, the team's offense would be better, and he'd be a strong candidate. This type of leap is extremely difficult, and don't want to bet on it. Ultimately, Edwards's biggest problem is the two guys below, who will have stronger cases than him at the end of the season, and have no voter fatigue since they have never won. Edwards's time may come: but it'll be in a few years likely.
The Only Two Guys You Can Bet
Luka Doncic (25, +400): Luka is in his prime, just made the finals, has finished first team all NBA for 5 straight seasons, and finished third for MVP last year. Luka is the correct and obvious favorite for this award. The Mavs are also poised to be great. He meets every criterion.
The biggest concerns for Luka are he has started slow, and the Mavs have often had chemistry issues with Jason Kidd. But this roster is overrun with talent which fits with Luka.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (26, +600): Last year, SGA was +2100, and a great bet on a surging Thunder team. He finished second last year and is poised for a huge year again on a team loaded with talent that should dominate the conference.
My biggest concerns with SGA are twofold. First, his offensive burden could go down, as Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren will improve, and Hartenstein will have the ball in his hands. But trading Giddey means there will be more opportunities for everyone involved. My second concern might sound wild, but I think there is a chance the Thunder rampage through the league. This could be a good thing, as it helped Curry win in 2015, even though he only averaged 23 ppg. But it's possible with their depth SGA's minutes and scoring fall from this past year because he doesn't need to play as much.
These two guys should be considered in tandem. Their true shooting percentages are not quite at the 64% mark, but it has improved almost every season.
This is a unique time in the NBA. Embiid, Giannis, and Jokic have won the last 6 MVPS, and all are just aging out of the MVP discussion. The next generation, likely highlighted by Wemby and Edwards, is not quite ready yet and is still improving. Cooper Flagg is coming. The golden generation of Curry, Durant, and LeBron are all at the end of their career.
SGA and Luka are the only guys who are truly top 5 without a doubt, hyper-efficient offensive fulcrums, and playing for great teams. Neither has won MVP yet, and both seem destined to. In my estimation, I think there is over a 60% chance one of the two of them will win MVP.
Currently, you can bet them both in combination for a 35% chance, or +180 odds. While I don't love laying short odds on a future, I think both have immense value.
Ultimately, I think there is a little more value in SGA: the team should be better, and there are fewer potential red flags. His defense is also stronger, after almost leading the league in steals. But I want a hefty investment in both.
Two bets:
- 1.5u on SGA at +600 on DraftKings (bet down to 300)
- 1.25u on Luka at +375 on Caesars (bet down to 300)
