This year's rookie of the year race is completely wide open.
Since 2008, every favorite for the award has been +400 or shorter to win before the season. This year, the shortest you can find for any player is +500. If you bet every player with the five shortest odds each season to win Rookie of the Year, the sportsbooks would give you odds of -400 at best. This season, you could bet the top five odds at -120.
None of the rookies may have a great season. In 2017, Malcolm Brogdon won while coming off the bench for most of the season and averaging only 10.2 PPG in 26.4 MPG. But that season is largely anomalous. A good analysis should focus on the likelihood someone emerges, which they have in 20 of the last 21 seasons. What does a rookie need to win Rookie of the Year?
- Rookies need opportunity: Each winner played at least 28 minutes per game, and the average minutes of a winner were 34 minutes per game. While that average has gone down over the last 5 seasons, we are still looking for a rookie who is going to start most games and play real minutes.
- Only five rookies per season played 28 minutes per game over the last 21 seasons. On average, 3.4 of them made first team all Rookie. What separates the players who made it from those who didn't?
- Rookies need to be productive: Each winner had a PRA of at least 23.5, and the average was 29.5. Over the last 21 seasons, only 43 rookies have played 28 minutes per game and had a PRA of at least 23.5. 4 of them did not make the rookie first team.
- Rookies need to contribute towards winning at least a little bit: This is hard to quantify, as everyone defines this differently. Here are some comparison averages for 28 mpg rookies who made the all-rookie first team versus those who didn't:
- Wins: 32 (first team) vs. 25 (not)
- Win shares (via basketball-reference): 4 vs. 1.4
If the PRA is on the lower side, players can make up the gap by being productive and playing for a winning team. This past season, the difference between Brandon Miller and Chet Holmgren was pretty small from a statistical perspective, but Chet was a key contributor on a one-seed and was a near-unanimous second in voting for Rookie of the Year.
Other than Brogdon, all of our winners have been in the top 10 in odds posted by the time the season started. 16 rookies are +4000 or shorter everywhere, and that's where we are going to start with our research. Six of them I think are almost locked into no real chance:
Fringe rotation:
- Terrence Shannon (+4000, Minnesota Timberwolves)
- Tidjane Salaun (+3500, Charlotte Hornets)
- Jaren McCain (+4000, Philadelphia 76ers)
These three guys all have a fair amount of players in front of them that it would take multiple injuries to get up to enough minutes.
Too many injuries away:
- Cody Williams (+2500, Utah Jazz)
- Kel'el Ware (+3500, Miami Heat)
- Dalton Knecht (+1000, Los Angeles Lakers)
Williams has a great chance to be the first wing off the bench, but the scoring punch is concentrated in too many other players ahead of him on the rotation.
Ware already has established young players in front of him in Nikola Jovic and Jamie Jaquez. He will see time, but not enough to put up impactful stats.
Knecht is in a similar boat, where time played is likely, but it's going to be hard to generate enough stats on the Lakers.
Rookies Who Are Unlikely To Start
Ron Holland II
+2000
I'm high on Holland as a prospect. But there are a lot of players in front of him in Detroit's rotation and he has a ways to go to be more efficient, not to mention the Pistons profile to be terrible.
I'm keeping an eye on him for when he gets minutes, but this is not the spot, even as a long shot.
Rob Dillingham
+1700
Dillingham is locked into the backup point guard spot for the Wolves and they will give him every opportunity there. If Mike Conley misses time, he will have the first crack at starting.
Minnesota still has a lot of mouths to feed and I think there is a real chance Dillingham pops up and somehow steals this starting spot. However, I'd put it in the 1-2% chance and not enough to bet here.
Donovan Clingan
+2000
Two years ago, Walker Kessler started on the bench before emerging as a starter for Utah based on elite defense. In 2015, Nerlens Noel started 71 games and provided solid defense for the 76ers. Both players finished third in Rookie of the Year but didn't ultimately figure because their points were too low.
Clingan is in the same mold, and will probably be the best defensive rookie center we have seen. He may not begin the season as a starter, but he will probably close as one. Clingan has a good chance to make the Rookie First Team and he has a great chance at getting on the ballot, but very low chances of winning.
Credible Rookies To Bet On
Alexandre Sarr
+1000
As a lifelong Wizards fan, I think they are on the best path they have been on in my lifetime. The Wizards haven't had a top-10 NBA team in 40 seasons and for the first time, they have some players that give them a chance to get there.
Sarr, meanwhile, profiles as a potential shooting big who provides solid to elite defense. During Summer League, neither of these showed up with some of the worst shooting performances we have seen. I think Sarr has a good chance to get there someday and he will likely start, but he is way too raw right now.
Carlton Carrington
+1600
Carrington opened at +5000, a price that I know at least some people jumped on. After the Summer League, it fell to +1500, which is about fair.
Carrington could very well start and be given a chance to score and create. He is going to put up numbers on a terrible Wizards team.
Voters recently have shown a level of reluctance to award Rookie of the Year to players on terribleteams, unless they have a vastly superior statistical argument. Carrington might and I give him about a 5% chance to win, which makes this a pass.
Stephon Castle
+1000
Castle is similar to Carrington. He's locked into a chance to compete on a team that seems destined to be bad.
Castle has further to go as an NBA-ready player, as his shot looks poor and his creation isn't as strong. He will have more eyeballs, but just not enough talent at this point to bet.
Reed Sheppard
+700
Sheppard killed it in Summer League and is probably the best rookie in the class.
Houston has a locked-in starting five in front of him that will block a lot of his playing time, but by the end of the season, it will likely be forced to play him for his productivity.
I see Sheppard playing 20-26 minutes per game this season, but just not enough to ultimately win the award. A good comp is Ben Gordon, who averaged 15 PPG off the bench for the Bulls and finished second.
Sheppard could very easily score 15 and suffer the same fate. If Houston makes a trade or clears a spot in front of him, or indicates he is starting, then these odds are way too long.
However, if he's pegged in to play 30-35 minutes and start, he should be in the +300 range. Something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
Matas Buzelis
+1000
To start the season, Buzelis will probably be the second guy off the bench with Ayo Dosunmu — assuming Zach Lavine is playing. If not, Buzelis may get a chance to start on a team needing scoring.
My main fear for Buzelis is that if he is playing more minutes and has an opportunity to score more, I'm not sure it'll go well and the Bulls will probably be worse.
Buzelis has shown an ability to score without always needing the ball in his hands, and he may immediately provide just as much value as Patrick Williams. Buzelis is the toughest pass here, as it's hard to get a read on exactly where he will stand for the Bulls.
Zach Edey
+600
Edey was drafted to start. He was an offensive force in college and may be relied on in the half-court for Memphis. He is probably the only rookie in this entire class who is guaranteed to start when healthy and play real minutes.
Taylor Jenkins took over as the coach in Memphis in 2019. For most of that time, Jonas Valanciunas or Steven Adams were the starters, and Edey was drafted to fill their void.
Jonas averaged 27.7, 26.4, and 28.3 mpg in Memphis, and Adams averaged 26.3 and 27. The Grizzlies wanted a big center who can play hard for almost 28 minutes per game and then go small or rotate through other guys the rest of the time.
I think Edey's MPG limit is probably 30, with 26 being the most likely. There is also a health factor, which is that big men have trouble staying healthy and Edey only made it through a few games at Summer League before an injury.
If that's the case, betting Edey at +600 is tough. He will be given plenty of chances, but it would require consistent high productivity to average enough stats. These odds are too short given all of that.
Zaccharie Risacher
+1300
The last two winners were first overall picks, and 15 of the last 21 were drafted top-four. Risacher's odds are extremelylong for the number one pick.
In the EuroCup last year, Risacher played 24 minutes per game and averaged 13.1 points per game. The Hawks drafted him over Sarr and Sheppard because they were looking for someone to play right now, start and contribute — which is exactly what Risacher did last year internationally.
Risacher is likely locked into a starting role and a part of a forward rotation with Jalen Johnson and De'Andre Hunter. The Hawks don't have their pick, which means they'll be trying to win and develop him at the same time. Risacher doesn't need the ball, but has shown an ability to score when opportunities present itself.
The Hawks also have a massive scoring hole that needs to be filled this season with Dejounte Murray and Saddiq Bey gone.
These odds have gotten longer as we have gotten closer to the season. But Risacher's situation remains the same — he will be asked to be involved, have high minutes and opportunity and has a pretty solid floor for production.
He should still be the favorite or co-favorite and we are getting him at very long odds.
The bet: .5u on Zaccharie Risacher — Rookie of the Year at +1300 on Fanduel/BetMGM.
