The Nuggets and Mavericks face off in NBA Cup play on Friday night. Here's how to bet it, depending on whether Nikola Jokic plays.
Mavericks vs. Nuggets
Injuries and uncertainty are the name of the game here. Luka Doncic is out for Dallas with a wrist injury, which obviously impacts the spread. However, here are two key stats to question that adjustment to Dallas' power rating:
- The Mavericks, since the start of last season, are 7-6 ATS when Doncic doesn't play and 3-1 ATS when Doncic is out but Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively play.
- Dallas is way better with Doncic on the floor this season compared to previous seasons, but the Mavericks are still +2.4 without him. They've been good even when he sits.
The same is not true for the Nuggets without Nikola Jokic.
Jokic remains questionable due to personal reasons, which haven't been disclosed. But, oh baby, when he does return, will it be a welcome site for Denver as the Nuggets are 26.2 points better in net margin per 100 possessions with him on the floor this season. I don't even know how to contextualize that figure. It's bonkers.
There's no indication that the situation Jokic is dealing with is severe or even negative, and with this being a home game, there's a good chance he returns.
If he does, this line jumps somewhere between four and seven points. And that's too far.
With Jokic in and Doncic out, I make this Nuggets -2.4, so a slight edge to the Mavericks. If Jokic is out, that moves to Mavs -4. That's how important Jokic is.
Now, this line might be straddling the two outcomes, where if Jokic is out, it moves to pick 'em and if he plays it moves to Nuggets -5.5. If this line does not expect Jokic and he plays, then this jumps to Nuggets by somewhere between 7 and 10 points.
I'll wait to find out Jokic's availability, then bet Dallas either way. Don't bet Dallas at +3 if Jokic is in until after the line has moved. If Jokic is set to play and the line doesn't move, indicating the books set this with the expectation Jokic would play (which is unlikely), then it's fine to play Dallas, but make sure you give the market time to adjust.
Meanwhile, I have a prop play.
Denver is giving up the sixth-most points in the paint per 100 possessions. With Jokic, the Nuggets struggle with backline rotations, particularly with Aaron Gordon out for this game. On the bench, they're severely undersized. Rebounding has also been an issue as the Nuggets are 19th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Our Scores And Odds crew projects Gafford for 19.6 points and rebounds. That's good enough for me to back.
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Prop Pick: Daniel Gafford Over 16.5 Points and Rebounds
Jokic's Status:
If Jokic plays: Wait for the line to go up, bet Mavericks
