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How do you define a top rookie season? Is the NBA Rookie of the Year (ROY) the player with the best stats? Is it the rookie who makes the biggest impact on a winning team? Does ROY go to the rookie who most outperforms expectations? And how do we know which rookies are best to bet on?
We can learn a lot about what awards will be given out in the future by starting with looking at the past. History correctly led us to Paolo Banchero at +460 last year, an easy ROY futures cash.
Let's build a historical Rookie of the Year profile by looking back at past winners, then consider the three clear favorites one by one, then other sleepers to monitor heading into the new season.
What sort of player wins NBA Rookie of the Year, and whom should we bet on?
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Who Wins NBA Rookie of the Year?
Here are the 10 most recent Rookie of the Year winners:
- 2023 Paolo Banchero, Magic
- 2022 Scottie Barnes, Raptors
- 2021 LaMelo Ball, Hornets
- 2020 Ja Morant, Grizzlies
- 2019 Luka Doncic, Mavericks
- 2018 Ben Simmons, 76ers
- 2017 Malcolm Brogdon, Bucks
- 2016 Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves
- 2015 Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves
- 2014 Michael Carter-Williams, 76ers
Looking back at the last couple decades of ROY winners, I've composed four main rules for betting NBA Rookie of the Year.
1. You have to score a lot of points.
As usual, points are king.
Since LeBron James won it in 2004, all but one Rookie of the Year scored at least 15 PPG, so that's a clear floor. That's everyone but Malcolm Brogdon (10.2 PPG) in 2017, 18 of the last 19 winners (95%).
The average Rookie of the Year during that span scored 17.7 PPG, and 14 of the last 21 ROYs led all rookies in scoring, exactly two of every three.
If we can predict which rookie will lead all debutantes in scoring, we have a pretty good shot at predicting Rookie of the Year.
2. Points + Rebounds + Assists is more predictive than just points.
Just picking the PPG leader isn't always enough. Four of the last six ROYs didn't actually lead in scoring. With heliocentric offenses and higher usage roles, ROY increasingly goes to a player who racks up high points + rebounds + assists (PRA).
ROYs led in PPG 67% of the last two decades, but 16 of the last 19 — 84%! — led in PRA, and two of the non-leaders won ROY mostly because PRA leaders Zion Williamson and Joel Embiid got hurt.
All but two ROYs since LeBron had at least 25 PRA, so that's our floor. Our last five ROYs averaged 18.0 points, 6.4 rebounds and 5.3 assists. That's 29.7 PRA, so we should target about 30 PRA.
3. It’s not about defense, efficiency, or wins.
Unlike other awards, there's typically no real emphasis on intangibles or winning with Rookie of the Year. It's mostly just a counting stats award.
Since Emeka Okafor won ROY in 2005 as a great interior defender, defense was only a meaningful part of the ROY case for maybe three or four players.
Using Box Plus-Minus (BPM) to measure efficiency, only five of the last 15 ROYs led all rookies in BPM. Under half of them finished in the top two, and the average ranking was 3.9. Voters forgive rookies for shooting inefficiency, turnovers, and bad defense.
They don't penalize them for playing on bad teams either, which makes sense since the top rookies are usually drafted by bad teams.
The last 15 ROYs averaged a 33.7-win pace and a 10.7-seed. Only four (27%) were on a top-eight playoff seed. In many ways, it's almost better if a good rookie is on a bad team since it probably means a bigger role and more rope for the youngsters.
4. Always bet on a top draft pick — like, a really top pick.
It probably won't surprise you to learn that ROYs are usually high draft picks, but you might be shocked to see just how high.
Since the 1950s, only four Rookies of the Year were drafted outside the top 10: 2017 Malcolm Brogdon (No. 36), 2011 Michael Carter-Williams (11), 1988 Mark Jackson (18), and 1974 Jamaal Wilkes (11). That's 61 of 63 ROYs drafted in the top 11 (96.8%), with only one ROY ever drafted outside the top 18.
That already whittles the field dramatically, but we're not done yet. Only 13 of those 63 ROYs were even drafted outside the top five. That means almost four of every five (79%) ROYs were top five picks!
Since 1990, 24 of 35 ROYs (69%) were drafted in the top three, and nearly half (46%) went No. 1. In other words, just blindly betting the first rookie drafted every season versus the entire field would still be nearly a 50/50 +EV decision.
In just the last 15 years, nine ROYs (60%) went top three, and three of those misses were due to injuries, or it might have been 80%.
The evidence is overwhelming, and it's selection bias working in our favor. High draft picks are drafted so high because they're better and more prepared to contribute. They're also going to the worst teams, most in need of a high-usage player.
History says our Rookie of the Year will likely be drafted in the top five, probably top three, and that we should default to the No. 1 pick unless there's a good reason not to.
Our Winning Most Improved Player Profile:
We're looking for a rookie drafted in the top five who can put up at least 15 PPG and 25+ PRA, and we don't need to worry about efficiency or winning.
Now that we have a profile, let's look at the field.
There's one clear favorite and two other names at the top of the list. We'll get to those three and which one is my pick, but let's start with a handful of longer shots to keep an eye on heading into the new season.
Odds are the best available as of Oct. 15.
7 Long Shots to Keep an Eye On
Bilal Coulibaly, Wizards (+10000, BetMGM)
Coulibaly was the hot riser in the draft and ended up picked at No. 7, but he's being completely overlooked and doesn't even have odds at PointsBet, which is downright insulting.
He's looked good in camp and should get plenty of minutes for a rebuilding Wizards team, and he had 12 points, 5 rebounds, 4 steals, and 2 blocks in his second preseason game. What if he just keeps rising?
Jarace Walker, Pacers (+8000, FanDuel)
Walker should start and be an immediate impact player for one of my favorite sleepers, but he's not the right ROY profile because he's just not a counting numbers guy, at only 11.2 PPG in college.
The whole point of Walker is that he defends well, plays with energy, and does all the little things not measured in a box score. He's a winning player, but that's not a winning Rookie of the Year profile.
Sasha Vezenkov, Kings (+6000, PointsBet)
Vezenkov finally comes over to the NBA and has reportedly been shooting the lights out with Sacramento. If you're the best shooter on a court with Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk, you're doing something right.
The Kings are really deep, though, and Vezenkov may have to fight for regular bench minutes, let alone any shot at starting. He's an immediate impact rookie at age 28 but probably not a ROY pick.
Ausar Thompson, Pistons (+5500, FanDuel)
There's talk that the Detroit Thompson twin could end up starting as the fifth man glue guy for the Pistons. That role would suit Ausar, a tenacious defender who moves the ball quickly and does the little things.
If that sounds a lot like the reason we're not betting Jarace Walker, you're right. Thompson should have more opportunity later in the year in Detroit but he's still a long shot.
Keyonte George, Jazz (+5500, FanDuel)
George is by far my favorite long shot on the board. He was outstanding at Summer League, shocking scouts with the muscle tone he'd added and the improved passing and creation ability and averaging 21.7 PPG on 44% 3s with 6.3 APG.
At Baylor, George was a microwave scoring two guard. If those point guard skills are real for a Jazz squad without a true PG, he could rack up points and assists for a team built to showcase him late in the season.
History says it's extremely likely that one of the four guys at the bottom of this article will win Rookie of the Year, but I don't mind sprinkling George at +5500 just in case the top guys disappoint. He was +8000 at BetMGMwhen we took him as a sleeper on Buckets.
Cam Whitmore, Rockets (+5000, BetRivers)
Whitmore slid in the draft but immediately looked like a steal at Summer League. He's super athletic and can score a heap of points in a hurry, though the secondary numbers are lacking.
Whitmore's ROY case has two big problems, though. The Rockets are deep with are a bunch of players, young and old, ahead of Whitmore in the pecking order. Second, one of those players is a higher draft pick on his own team, so there's a good chance Whitmore won't even be the Rookie of the Rockets.
Amen Thompson, Rockets (+4000, FanDuel)
Thompson is an absolutely electric athlete who will enter the league as a top 10 NBA athlete, and 10 is probably too many. He's going to have some incredible dunks and highlights, no doubt.
But like Whitmore, Thompson could struggle to find enough playing time. Houston has a pretty clear starting five with Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks in tow. Thompson could struggle to find minutes, touches, and shots for a team that wants to win now.
This is Matt Moore's favorite ROY long shot, and I don't hate it. Thompson looks like a future star. I just worry it could be a tough transition from Overtime Elite and that the numbers won't be consistent enough.
Two Former No. 2 Picks with Wildly Different Odds
Chet Holmgren, Thunder (+320, FanDuel)
Holmgren was drafted No. 2 in 2022 but missed his entire rookie season with a foot injury, so he counts as a rookie this year, and he's the second favorite on the board. But he shouldn't be.
Look, I'm a Chet guy. I love Holmgren and had him all alone at the top of my draft board last summer, ahead of Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith. Holmgren has preternatural defensive instincts and shot blocking abilities, and he has an incredibly fluid dribble and shot for a player his size.
I absolutely expect Holmgren to be a significant winning player if healthy once his body fills out. But those two qualifying statements are a major concern. Holmgren's body type makes him a significant injury risk, even after adding 10 pounds of muscle since last summer. He's a risk to miss time resting or injured and will probably see plenty of short-minute games with foul trouble too.
There's one other potential Rule No. 5 I've yet to make official for Rookie of the Year. Five of the last six ROYs functioned as the hub or engine of the offense, with the ball in their hands all game, making plays for themselves and for others.
We've seen only three big man winners the last 18 years (17%) but Paolo Banchero broke that mold last year by being an Orlando engine. Holmgren will not be that for Oklahoma City. He'll likely start as a play finisher, either at the rim or taking an open jumper, with a glut of other Thunder youngsters handling and creating.
That limits usage and counting number upside, and between that problem and the potential minutes and games issue, Chet Holmgren is a clear no bet as the second favorite. He doesn't fit the profile and just isn't a value at +320.
Brandon Miller, Hornets (+2800, FanDuel)
History says Rookie of the Year goes to a top-three pick 69% of the time since 1990. This year we have four top-three picks because of Holmgren, but it appears his presence has bumped this year's actual No. 2 pick, Brandon Miller, off the radar.
Miller had an incredible freshman season at Alabama, scoring 18.8 PPG on 38% 3s at volume and adding 8.2 RPG en route to a consensus All-American season. He can fill up the scoring column in a hurry when the shots fall, and he could get a lot of rhythm 3s catching passes from LaMelo Ball in what should be a very fast-tempo Hornets offense.
Charlotte has seven starter-caliber players (assuming Miles Bridges plays) but it looks like Miller will start. He's a bit of a chucker and won't get many assists or secondary stats, but it's easy enough to see the counting numbers adding up at points and rebounds if Miller plays 30 MPG for a fast team.
I don't think Brandon Miller wins but I can't blame you for adding him to your portfolio. This number (+2800) is insulting for a guy that just went No. 2 overall. Does Miller have better than a 3.4% implied chance of winning Rookie of the Year? I'd certainly rather bet that than Holmgren (implied 23.8%).
The Two Rightful Favorites
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs (+125, BetMGM)
We've come to the favorite. Victor Wembanyama was the No. 1 draft pick and he's favored at every book, with minus odds at some of them.
Wembanyama might be one of the most hyped prospects in American sports history. He's unlike any player you've ever seen, standing 7-foot-4 with an eight-foot wingspan and a standing reach near 10 feet.
Wembanyama can touch the rim without jumping. He swats shots into the stands like he's playing against toddlers, and his dunks look like he's playing on a Nerf hoop. But Wemby isn't just tall. He's incredibly fluid for a guy his size, with a nifty handle and a silky smooth jumper. He takes runners and step-back 3s. He grabs the rebound and nonchalantly brings the ball up the court, running point.
It's easy enough to see why Wembanyama is the betting favorite for Rookie of the Year. The hype is both wildly out of control and yet somehow merited. Wemby has lived up to the hype so far in preseason. Every few plays is another highlight clipped all over Twitter as fans and media alike buzz. He's a star personality on and off the court. It's absolutely possible he could just run away with Rookie of the Year.
But I'm not betting on it.
History says defense is not really part of Rookie of the Year, so that potentially kills a huge chunk of Wembanyama's value. And like Holmgren, Wemby's physical body will need a ton of work. He comes straight from the French league and is barely over 200 pounds. He's going to get pushed around in the paint and will no doubt take some big hits and serious falls.
The new 65-game-minimum rule doesn't officially apply to ROY per NBA bylaws, but it would still be easy to see Wembanyama struggling to play enough to stay in the Rookie of the Year race. Of all teams, you would expect the Spurs to be smart enough to know what they've got and play the long game, which probably means resting Victor on some back-to-backs and giving him plenty of time to get healthy on any injury. This is also a similar body type to Anthony Davis, a guy who frequently misses games and often leaves games early, hurting his per-game averages.
Will the counting numbers be there? I'm not convinced they will be, or that Wembanyama is ready to act as an offensive engine or hub, at least not yet. Remember, we need at least 15 PPG and 25 PRA, probably more like 18 and 30 in what should be a strong ROY race.
Wembanyama has been compared to players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, and Anthony Davis. Antetokounmpo is an engine now, but it took him three seasons to post a 17/8/4 line. He had 6.8 points and 4.4 rebounds as a rookie. Durant cracked 20 PPG as a rookie but did so on awful shooting with only four rebounds a game. Davis posted a modest 13.5/8 as a rookie. These thin frames take time.
That Davis line could be a nice proxy expectation for Wembanyama, and I'm not sure that would be enough. For all the hype and excitement, there's no way I can bet Wemby at effectively even or minus odds.
Wembanyama is a clear no bet for me. He's actually not even my outright favorite for the award.
Scoot Henderson, Trail Blazers (+370, FanDuel)
Henderson is my pick for 2023-24 Rookie of the Year, and he's my outright favorite to win the award. I give him at least 40% odds at the trophy, nearly double the 21.3% implied by the +370 at FanDuel.
Scoot might enter the league as a top 20 point guard right now. And unlike the other rookies, Henderson has already been leading a professional offense the last two years in the G League. At Summer League and so far in preseason, Henderson barely even looks like a rookie — not by body type, nor by playing speed. He just fits in like an NBA-ready player right now.
Henderson is the full package as a point guard prospect. He's a big personality and a born leader, a highlight waiting to happen both as a scorer and a passer, and a guy everyone in the media will love. He has a confident jumper and a creative handle and plays with both power and finesse. Henderson pops as an athlete and has great body control and finishing ability, and he's got that dawg in him.
With Wembanyama, you can't help but wonder, because we've never seen anything like him. With Scoot, you can see him walk into an NBA offense tomorrow because we know exactly what he can be. He looks like the next superstar point guard.
Now that Damian Lillard has been traded, the Blazers are Henderson's team going forward. Lillard's absence vacates 32 points, five rebounds, and seven assists, and Henderson is in line to soak up a huge chunk of that usage and counting numbers. I project him around 17 points, 4 boards, and 7 dimes as an immediate starter, which puts him in line to lead all rookies in both scoring and PRA.
Scoot Henderson has been my Rookie of the Year pick from the jump. I bet him in June at +600, and though the odds have since dropped, they're still too high, especially now that Lillard is gone.
It won't be easy. Holmgren looks great and Wembanyama is already getting crazy buzz and posting nightly highlights. But at the end of the day, Scoot Henderson is the rookie I trust to play the most and post the best, most consistent numbers as the rookie most ready to make an immediate NBA impact.
Bet Scoot Henderson to win NBA Rookie of the Year now at +370 while you still can.
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