Realistically, the Dallas Mavericks are still in a hole, and blew a quality opportunity to win Game 2 on the road.
Man, at 1-1, this would've looked drastically different.
But alas, Kristaps Porzingis is injured again. In Game 2, he suffered the setback with 3:27 left in the third quarter, according to the Boston Celtics themselves.
Celtics announce Kristaps Porzingis torn medial retinaculum allowing dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon in his left leg at 3:27 of the third quarter of Game 2. They say the injury is unrelated to Porzingis’s prior right calf injury.
According to the Celtics, after…
— Jared Weiss (@JaredWeissNBA) June 11, 2024
Jeff Stotts (@InStreetClothes on Twitter) summarizes the injury in a Tweet saying, "The medial retinaculum is connective tissue that serves as the roof of the tarsal tunnel (think carpal tunnel but in the foot). It anchors multiple structures in place, including the tendon of the posterior tibialis."
In a follow up, he notes, "If the retrinaculum is torn, the tendon can shift out of place (dislocate), causing pain and instability of the ankle and foot."
After being initially listed as day-to-day, Porzingis has been ruled out for Game 3.
So, how do we bet Game 3 with Porzingis out?
Here are bets we are eyeing for Game 3 in the wake of Porzingis' injury:
More Minutes for Luke Kornet and Opportunity for Dončic?
By Joe Dellera
When Porzingis missed time so far during this postseason, one of the biggest changes was that Tatum saw swing in his first quarter minutes and was generally playing the entire first quarter as opposed to eight or nine minutes.
These extra minutes generally resulted in him scoring at a higher clip and he exceeded his 6.5 first quarter line in eight of 10 games without Porzingis this postseason.
Tatum struggled so far the series, but having the swing and a decrease in the number of schemed plays for Porzingis should open up some more opportunities for Tatum to score in the first quarter.
Additionally, Al Horford probably doesn’t see too significant of a change in his role given that he’s already playing about 30 minutes per game. Without Porzingis he averages 10.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 2.1 assists compared to 7.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.8 assists when playing alongside him during this Postseason run.
Horford props will probably be overpriced.
My initial inclination would be that we see more Kornet minutes and that should open up more opportunities for Luka Dončic as he can exploit that drop coverage that he generally plays.
Can the Mavericks Have A Solid Start?
I already played Dallas -0.5 in the first half of Game 3 before the injury, and I'll like this even more if he sits.
The line, as of this writing, is a consensus Mavs -1.5 in the first half, and the game spread tilted to -2 to -2.5 with Porzingis status in question.
KP has been a walking mismatch and first-half monster this series.
In Game 1, KP led all players with 18 first half points, shot 7-of-9 from the field and blocked three shots. Worth noting that he was 2-for-3 from deep as well. In Game 2, he had 10 points on 3-of-4 shooting in the first half, hit all four free throw attempts, and blocked a shot.
So 28 of Porzingis 32 points in this series have been in the first half of games. That's 87.5 percent.
If the Celtics are possibly losing that, I think Dallas finally has a start worth being happy about, and on their home floor.
How This Impacts the Celtics Lineup?
By Matt Moore
The only thing for certain with Tuesday's news is that the information the Celtics provided is likely inaccurate. Either the injury is considerably worse than they are allowing, with Porzingis talking about how he'll "die to be out there" and how he is day to day when in fact he is out for the series, or Joe Mazzulla's description of it as a "serious injury" is over the top and Porzingis is fine.
The Celtics were pretty nonplussed about it at media on Tuesday, with Jaylen Brown saying it was "business as usual" as they've played without him and have worked hard to be able to play well if a guy can't go.
Porzingis has been a huge factor in the first two games but it's important to note that without him, they are a net neutral. He has not been the sole reason Boston is 2-0, nor can Boston not adjust without him. Their rim protection has been more a product of their scheme and guard play.
If Porzingis is unable to go, the Celtics will still play 5-out, still switch everything, and will likely play more small-ball. Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively have been unable to take advantage of Boston pre-switching with Jayson Tatum on them, and any post-ups for the two in the size mismatch is a definite win for Boston.
It's possible that this changes everything and turns the entire series around, a dramatic moment that could decide the NBA Finals. But Boston is still at an advantage in the series, and the market is still overvaluing Dallas after line movement following the injury report. We'll see if Porzingis plays, and how he plays, but always be cautious when it comes to injury gamesmanship in the NBA Finals.
