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Charlotte Hornets
Win Total: 30.1 | Moore's Projection: 29.1
Bet/Lean/Pass: Lean over, pass.
Handicap
I'm very much left helpless trying to decide what to do with the Hornets.
The vibes with new coach Charles Lee are immaculate. They've upgraded the roster with more veteran talent, Brandon Miller should pop even more in Year 2, and LaMelo Ball once again has a chance at being healthy.
Ball, Miller, Josh Green (or Cody Martin), Miles Bridges and Mark Williams is a group with NBA experience coming into their own. The depth is not great, but there are some opportunities for players like Nick Richards, Grant Williams, and rookie Tidjane Salaun to have moments.
LaMelo has played 58 games across the past two seasons. The numbers say that when he's on the floor, his offensive impact has been great. If he can refine his shot selection which borders not on reckless so much as mystifying, and embrace this as Miller's team, he can reclaim his status as a premier talent.
There's shooting in this group from the starters through the back end, and if Lee takes what he learned in Milwaukee and Boston as an assistant and just has this team maximize its mathematical edge in shot selection, it will give them chances to outscore teams. The defensive side is likely to be rough.
Williams got hurt early and then never returned, he also had some issues being in Steve Clifford's doghouse. But word around the league is the front office is very committed to Williams who shows a good range of skills for a modern big man.
Everyone's looking for the right Southeast team to take as a long shot. Most will take Atlanta, but Charlotte seems very attractive at long odds with a not-untalented roster.
But trying to figure out how to get this team to make any sort of jump is hard. They were the worst team in the league last season by net rating, and that includes some truly awful squads.
They need to be upgraded for their offseason and coach, and I've done that. I still wind up slightly under. I don't find their chances of getting past Orlando or Miami good, nor do I think they are a strong contender for a play-in let alone playoff spot. The most likely scenario is that Charlotte is a good team to play night by night, but let's wait until we see what this looks like in the early season before buying any futures.
Trends:
Since 2011 not including the COVID-shortened 2020 season:
- Teams with a bottom-five win total — the very definition of buying low — are still 31-26 to the under.
- BUT teams with a bottom-five win total who were bottom-five in both offense and defense are 9-6 to the over.
- Teams overall who were bottom-five in both offense and defense are 15-6 to the over; it's hard to be that bad in back-to-back seasons.
How It Goes Over
Charles Lee and some selective subtraction of various immature players turns this team into a professional basketball club. LaMelo has a full season to break out. Miller avoids a sophomore slump, and a 3-point balanced attack makes them a tough enough team to make the play-in.
How It Goes Under
The team stalls out as a decent collection of talent with a first-year head coach who don't know how to win together. They gather some momentum but ultimately decide to trade some of the veterans for future assets (something they've indicated league wide they're willing to do) and position themselves to add a third star in a loaded draft.
Sneaky Guy I Like
I'm tempted to take Nick Smith Jr. who has flashed some potential in summer league, but I'll go with a safer choice in Josh Green. Green was good (at times) for the Mavericks, especially before Kyrie Irving arrived. He got lost in the shuffle for a playoff team, but Green has that dog in him and will compete, something the Hornets have needed.
Data provided by NBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
