The start of the NBA season is just a few days away, and we’ve got you covered with how to bet every single team in the NBA to get started. Here’s a guide to every NBA win total, with this entry on the…
Chicago Bulls
Win Total: 27.5 | Moore's Projection: 25.7
Bet/Lean/Pass: Hard pass.
Handicap
Uncertainty creates opportunity for bettors and there's a lot of uncertainty here. I'm too torn on the extremes to find value but that doesn't mean you won't.
Here's the key question:
Do you think that the Bulls can find a way to merge a younger roster and get solid-to-bounceback seasons from Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic for as long as they have them on the roster?
If you think Zach LaVine is washed or a complete negative, then this is an easy play on the under. They moved DeMar DeRozan and have gone all in with Coby White, Patrick Williams, a castoff from the Thunder in Josh Giddey who has real questions about shooting, and Ayo Dusunmu along with rookie Matas Buzelis (who the Bulls are actively tempering expectations on).
First I lauded how Nikola Vucevic was underrated in Orlando. Then I defended him against accusations of being overrated or overpaid. I justified the Bulls' trade for him.
But that was several seasons ago. Take a look at Vucevic's EPM career chart over the past six seasons:
It takes a lot to get me to say any player is absolutely and completely "washed."
Nikola Vucevic is washed.
If he has to play for this team, that's bad. Especially because one of the sneakiest gets for the Bulls in the offseason was Jalen Smith, a versatile stretch five.
LaVine is so much more complicated. He's dealt with injury issues, and there has to be real concern those will continue. He also obviously lost the faith of the franchise as they were openly trying to trade him to no avail. There was reportedly real work done to try and repair their relationship going into this season and LaVine has said all the right things.
Here is where I'll make a push for a player I've liked since he was traded to the Bulls. LaVine was tracking towards being an All-NBA level player before DeMar DeRozan joined the Bulls. DeRozan is a good player who is beloved by teammates. He's a clutch monster and mid-range beast. But there's a concerning trend of other supporting star-level players getting worse next to him. Kyle Lowry's numbers were always a little worse when sharing the floor with him. LaMarcus Aldridge's were outright bad with him.
That doesn't mean DeRozan was the problem or that LaVine will bounce back. But it's also not the craziest idea to think a more wide-open, better-spaced team could lead to a rejuvenation.
That said… do the Bulls want that? Do they want to win? If LaVine looks great and the Bulls are tracking towards being .500… do they trade him when the value is finally higher? This draft class is really great and if you've already let DeMar DeRozan walk, why are you not pivoting towards the draft?
This team's profile is also awful. Chicago was dead last in opponent 3-point attempt and make rate last season. They were 28th in offensive 3-point attempts and 20th in makes. They lose the math game every possession on average. Does removing DeRozan fix that?
One of the issues with the market is that it doesn't present you a chance to play these tail ends. The high end is great. Bulls to win 35+ games is +360, 40+ wins is +900. Bulls to make playoffs is +700. (All of these at DraftKings.) All sorts of good ways to play this.
But the tail end is tough. Under 24.5 wins at Caesar's is +160. You'd have to be certain that the Bulls won't win more than 25 or less than 35 more than half the time to bet it based on the implied odds, and that probably doesn't work out.
So you're better off finding one end you like more than the other and dabbling on that, or you can be a coward like me and just stay away from Chicago.
TRENDS:
Since 2011 not including the COVID-shortened 2020 season…
- Teams who saw their year over year win total drop by at least five wins are 38-26 to the under (59%).
- Teams with a 5+ drop in win total with a win total below 41 wins are 19-12.
- Teams who were 16th or worse in both offense and defense with a win total between 25 and 40 (bad but not awful teams) are 33-22 to the under (60%).
How It Goes Over
LaVine has a bounce back season, Vucevic gets contract-dumped and Coby White, Ayo Dusunmu make a leap. Buzelis pops and Donovan coaches a team up for the first time in four years.
How It Go Under
LaVine isn't able to return to form or has more injuries, Vucevic has to play because of contract which drags down the starters too much, White regresses, and the team pivots to Gag For Flagg By January.
Sneaky Guy I Like
Ayo Dosunmu was 60th percentile in defensive EPM last season while shooting 40 percent from 3-point range last season. He's crafty and knows how to play within what the game asks for him. Bulls were right not to sell their stock on him in trade.
Data provided by NBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
