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Cleveland Cavaliers
Win Total: 48.5 | Moore's Projection: 48.5
Bet/Lean/Pass: Lean over, bet tail end outcomes of division winner +250, under 5.5 seeding -125 (DraftKings), Kenny Atkinson Coach of the Year +3500.
Handicap
The Cavaliers are an annual candidate for the breakout. They've got four star-caliber players (though Darius Garland has some work to do; we'll get to that). They have had an elite defense for multiple seasons. They have a top-level offensive engine in Donovan Mitchell and have added better depth over the past two seasons.
Last season, they were an als0-ran, which I think is impacting both the win total line and my projection, but it's based on last season, which was quite frankly bizarre. Evan Mobley and Garland both missed significant time in the early-to-midway part of the season. While they were out, the Cavaliers thrived by playing Mitchell-Jarrett Allen high pick-and-roll offense with three shooters. Cleveland went 17-5 with Mitchell-Allen and shooters.
Then Mobley and Garland returned, the Cavs got a little worse but were still good. Then Donovan Mitchell got hurt. Then they had a chance at a. winning the division (and cashing a few bets for yours truly) and b. landing the 3-seed and staying out of Boston's bracket. Instead, the Cavaliers mystifyingly tanked the last game of the season, wound up in a tough series vs. the pesky Magic, and then getting trounced by the Celtics after Mitchell and Allen were hurt.
Like I said, it was weird.
The big change in the offseason wasn't roster; they return basically the entire team from last season. But they let JB Bickerstaff go and hired Kenny Atkinson.
Atkinson's Nets teams were optimized with less talent than this team, and that's what you're hoping for if you're betting Cavaliers. From 207-2019, the Nets were top-10 in three-point rate and often top-five. The Cavaliers were 7th last year, it's not something missing but it might improve even more. That's exciting from the perspective of what it could do for for Mitchell, Allen, and players like Max Strus and Dean Wade. It's less exciting for Garland and to a lesser extent Mobley.
I have the Atkinson shift worth about 0.8 wins which doesn't sound a lot but it's a solid upgrade that reinforces their floor.
Mobley shot more 3's after the All-Star Break but shot worse. His defense really leveled up from an already high level. As a floor spacer he fits better with Jarrett Allen. The future of Mobley might be him at the 5, but he's not ready for it. So him adapting more as a stretch four is a great development.
Garland looked lost last year. He was tentative and confused at times, struggled to fit next to Mitchell, and dealt with excessive injuries on top of it. It was a lost seasonf or Garland, which individually isn't terrible. The problem is his role and presence for the Cavaliers means that not only is a season where he struggles a net neutral, it's actively harmful.
The odds are higher that he bounces back than replicates that kind of season, with the caveat that injuries are impossible to predict.
The floor for Cleveland is probably 45 wins if Atkinson doesn't improve the offense and injuries pester them without sinking them again. The ceiling, though… the ceiling is the ozone layer.
If the defense stays elite with a great structure of Allen's rim protection, Mobley's versatility, and good defenders at the wing spots, the 3-point rate and efficiency bumps them up along with better overall structure gets them into the top 10 and Mitchell has a typical Mitchell season, then this team could win well north of 50 games.
There's real danger when you take a team who should have won more last season and expect them to improve. But Cleveland statistically actually won one more game than they "should have" by Pythagorean expectation. So we dodge that bullet.
In betting, you're always looking for the "spot" to bet a team. The season-long spot for the Cavaliers is excellent and plays to the higher end outcomes. I'll bet division and Atkinson Coach Of The Year. If you want something more conservative, Cavaliers seeding under 5.5 at DraftKings is -120. I'll sprinkle on Cavaliers +850 2nd seed as well.
TRENDS:
- Teams that went under last season but made the playoffs (so underperformed but not enough for a disaster season) and had a win total between 40 and 49 the following season (expected to be good, not great) have gone 15-12 the over.
- Top 10 defenses who went under the previous season with a win total less than 50 are 14-7 to the over.
How They Go Over
Atkinson puts the offense into better situations, several players have positive regression shooting seasons, and the defense remains elite.
How They Go Under
Mitchell gets banged up again, the supporting shooters struggle again, Dean Wade gets hurt, and nothing comes together in a season of change.
Sneaky Guy I Like
DEAN. WADE. The Cavaliers were +8.3 in net rating with Wade on the floor last season and -0.1 with him on the bench. He shoots 39% from 3 at 6-9. He averages five points per game. I'm not sitting here saying he's a star in the making but the Cavaliers are objectively better when he plays and when he's on the floor. Go watch the Celtics games for a look at what he can provide.
Data provided by NBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
