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Dallas Mavericks
Win Total: 49.5 | Moore's Projection: 55.4
Bet/Lean/Pass: Over 3u, No. 1 seed +700 1u, Under
Handicap
Yeah, I'm pretty high on the Mavs this year.
When I started doing work on projections and win totals, I was looking for ways to fade Dallas. The Mavericks' postseason run was … well, fluky is a strong word. It's also not an inaccurate one. They ran into a Clippers team that was without Kawhi Leonard, but had answers for Dallas early before falling apart.
Then they faced the Thunder, who were in their first playoff run together and super young. But even that series really came down to shooting variance as PJ Washington turned into Rashard Lewis for four games, and the Thunder, who shot well all season, just couldn't buy an open 3.
Dallas made the conference finals, and instead of a Nuggets team that was matched up to wreck them, they got a Wolves team that was a perfect matchup, which is why I bet and wrote about how strongly I liked Dallas in that series.
And then they played Boston and got absolutely destroyed. No shame in that, the Celtics were better than everyone last season.
Dallas was a good-not-great top-four seed that had things fall right for it last season. In particular, its defense leapt from being below average for the past several seasons to elite late in the year after the additions of Washington and Daniel Gafford, neither of which are considered elite defensive players.
So, I wanted to fade the Mavericks.
But look at their offseason.
Two things can be simultaneously true:
A. Klay Thompson is defensively pretty close to washed and when he has bad offensive games, like the play-in loss to the Kings where he went 0-for-10, it's really bad.
B. He's still an impactful player and a significant upgrade for the Mavericks.
I grade Thompson as worth 1.1 points to the spread and worth almost three wins as an upgrade. Quentin Grimes, Naji Marshall and Spencer Dinwiddie are all quality additions, and Josh Green (who I like as a player) and Tim Hardaway Jr. both grade out as additions by subtraction via their departures.
The Mavericks are absolutely better on paper.
But that's on paper.
The worry has to be that they changed what worked for them late in the season, which was gritty defense. Marshall and Grimes can defend. Dallas still has most of its rotation from the late season and playoffs and Thompson won't be atrocious every game.
But the Mavericks fundamentally disrupted the combination that was working with Derrick Jones Jr.'s physicality. If that defense slips back, will they still be elite?
The upside is that the offense (seventh last season, schedule-adjusted) likely regresses positively. The offense was good last season, but didn't feel like it had a solid floor or a high ceiling. Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic had an offensive rating in their lineups together of 120, which is excellent. It's also not elite, and not as elite as you would think that combo would be.
There's a good reason to think that improves and gets back to what you would expect, which is molten lava.
But the biggest reason I'm in on this team to hit all sorts of thresholds is … Dereck Lively II.
I can rave to you about Lively's athleticism and finishing ability paired with Doncic and about how Doncic has never had a rim runner like Lively. I can wax poetic about how good Lively's early career defensive instincts are and how he plays under control despite his age. I can laud his professionalism and maturity as a great sign for his career arc.
But let's just keep it simple and talk about cold hard wins and losses.
When Doncic and Lively played together last season, the Mavericks were 34-17, a 66% win percentage that was good for a 54-win pace.
The Mavericks had bad injury luck last season and, as I've mentioned in other previews, the data does not support the idea that there's a snapback in that category. But with an improved roster, that should shore up some of those problems. The Mavs got both better and deeper in the offseason, and that's how you put up wins in the regular season.
Dallas was 25-5 vs. teams under .500 last season, 25-16 at home and 11-5 in the division. The Mavericks win the games they need to.
I remain a skeptic of Jason Kidd as a head coach, but I also have to admit last year was by far the best coaching job of his career. His assistants bring a lot to the table and he managed both egos and preparation better. Dallas had way fewer games where it was apparent it was out on the town the night before than in previous seasons.
Doncic is the consensus second-best player in the league, coming into camp in shape and is basically a lock for a top-3 MVP finish if healthy.
They have the guy. They have the roster. They have the schedule, even in a tough West.
I'm all in on Dallas.
TRENDS:
- Teams to lose the Finals are 5-5 to the over/under in the past 10 seasons, but the loser has gone over the past three times (Suns '22, Celtics '23, Heat '24).
- Teams that went under, then over the following season, and have a win total north of 47 the season after have gone 18-7-1 to the under (69%).
How It Goes Over
The offense reaches another gear behind Luka-Lively pick and roll. Better health leads to better stability night to night. The defense matches last year's results with a less junkyard identity and Thompson's spacing puts them into top tier status.
How It Goes Under
Injuries continue to pester at Doncic thanks to his otherworldly usage, which grinds down him and everyone around him. Thompson turns out to be totally washed. The defense takes a step back with a change in identity and once again Doncic's incredible numbers don't translate to actually winning his minutes by as much as you would want from a superstar. The team limps to a 43-46 record and a play-in spot.
Sneaky Guy I Like
Dante Exum. He is already banged up to start the season, but was so good last season for Dallas, winning several key games for the Mavericks. He's found a 3-point stroke, has the athleticism to get to the rim and defends at a high level. After such a bumpy NBA road, he's one of the most fun bench players in the league, a modern day Shaun Livingston.
Data courtesy ofNBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
