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Denver Nuggets
Win Total: 51.5 | Moore's Projection: 49.5
Bet/Lean/Pass: Thunder Division -150.
Handicap
This team is basically a cage match between two sides.
In one corner, you have Nikola Jokic, 3-time MVP, Elite 100 No.1 player, consensus Best In The World, and Michael Malone, whose Nuggets have never gone under their win total in his nine seasons with the team (outside of the voided COVID-shortened season).
On the other, you have an undeniably worse roster after losing starting shooting guard 2-guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and a patchwork bench of inexperienced players like Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther, Russell Westbrook with all his pros and cons, Dario Saric, and several players who simply may not be NBA players within the next three years.
Then you have the fact that Denver has consistently outperformed what its point differential says it should because Denver doesn't win big. They win medium and lose small.
Denver's win profile showed cracks last season. Denver dominated vs. the bad teams which got them to 57 wins at 28-2, but had to push unnecessarily hard to get to only one more loss at home than their title season, and they went 10-6 in division. Tiebreaker lost them the 1-seed to OKC, and nearly tossed them to 3rd vs. the Wolves.
The bigger problem was vs. the good teams. The Nuggets went 11-14, straight up, vs. the other Western Conference playoff teams. That's not good enough for an over in most years. (And yet they won 57 games last year; this is the paradox with Denver.)
The rotation isn't a mess; if the playoff started tomorrow, Denver would be fine and dangerous. It's when regular season rest and injury get thrown in. Everyone misses games in the regular season (except Jokic who almost always only misses for rest).
Murray-Christian Braun-Michael Porter Jr.-Aaron Gordon-Nikola Jokic
Peyton Watson, Russell Westbrook, Dario Saric, Julian Strawther (primed for a good leap)
That makes nine, and the top nine is solid.
But if Murray misses time, the point guard rotation is Westbrook and… Strawther at point…?
If Aaron Gordon misses time, MPJ can slide to the 4 — the team has talked about wanting him there more often this season– and Watson can slide in at the 3. But then the backup small forward is… Hunter Tyson?
There's no depth behind Jokic. Saric would start if Jokic misses time, with DeAndre Jordan behind him (or vice versa to keep the bench lineups intact.)
It gets dicey quickly.
Most top-heavy teams have these issues, though few have their fifth-highest paid player, Zeke Nnaji in this case, outside of their rotation.
But Denver ran out of gas last year in the futures/nba-to-make-playoffs-odds">playoffs. Specifically in Game 7 of the Wolves series in the third quarter after leading by 20, but signs were there before. They need to get their starters rest.
Can they do that with this roster and still pull off 52 wins?
Michael Malone has been coach of this team for almost 10 years. That's a long time for anyone to coach an NBA franchise. We have some exceptions in Erik Spoelstra and Gregg Popovich, but that's the level we're talking about, and both of those teams have reinvented themselves to prevent staleness. This isn't the same core from the Nuggets' first playoff run in 2019, but it's a lot of the same stuff for many years in a row.
The vibes are not tremendous. Jokic seems more and more fatigued by life in the NBA. He loves basketball but is largely bored with the NBA regular season. Malone has pretty well-established conflicts with the front office's direction. Jamal Murray had issues staying healthy last year, struggled in the postseason mightily (and threw a heating pack?), and then struggled even more in Olympic play. No one knows what to expect from him at this point; he always starts slow on top of it.
All of the trends, vibes, roster construction leans to a heavier tail end of unders.
But… Jokic.
Jokic may just be 50 wins on his own as long as he plays 60-plus games. There was a 52.5 in the market early and I bet the under there, but at 51.5 I've lost my appetite. I'd rather bet against their division chances.
One more note: the idea of the Nuggets' window being closed is absurd. If Denver gets to 47 wins and a 5-seed, they are going to be a smash spot if healthy for title futures. The regular season is about surviving the attrition. The playoffs are about problem solving. And when you have Nikola Jokic, you can solve about 95% of your problems. Do not get caught up in the idea that Denver is out of the title picture, even if they're not a buy right now.
TRENDS
Since 2011 not including the COVID-shortened 2020 season…
- Teams to win 57 or more the previous season are 16-7 to the under the following season
- Teams with win totals of 49.5 or greater are 43-29 (59%) to the under
- Teams with win totals of 49.5 or greater after having a Pythagorean differential of +2 or more (won more games than they "should") have gone 11-14 to the under (69%).
How It Goes Over
Jokic Jokices. The team stays a normal level of healthy. Their record vs. the West playoff teams stabilizes since those are closer to coin flips and their performance vs. bad teams and while at home remains elite. Murray takes even a small step forward in performance and consistency. The young kids, particularly Strawther or Watson, pop in a big way.
How It Goes Under
The team is forced to load manage a team that has played an incredible amount of games over the last five years, and that drag pulls them into a sub-50 level. Coin flips don't go their way and their seemingly excessive clutch numbers go the other way after years of defensive dominance.
Sneaky Guy I Like
I legitimately think Peyton Watson can be a three-level scorer. His defensive aptitude is through the roof; he makes 2-3 "wow" defensive plays every game. There's a reason so many players, coaches, and trainers think he has All-Star potential.
Data courtesy ofNBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
