The Denver Nuggets followed up their 2023 title run with a disappointing postseason collapse. Most of the Western Conference improved this offseason, especially Oklahoma City.
Will the Nuggets return to the NBA Finals despite stiff competition? Here’s why they are worth betting to win the West at their current price.
Why You Should Bet Denver To Win The West
The Nuggets are currently priced at +550 on FanDuel to reach the NBA Finals, which has an implied probability of 15.3%. It will be a rigorous road through the West, but that’s a line worth taking.
Let’s address the elephant in the room: Orlando poached starter Kentavious Caldwell-Pope this offseason. His ferocious on-ball defense and efficient 3-point shooting played key roles in Denver’s 2023 championship run. He’s certainly a significant loss, but it’s not the end of the world like some have made it out to be.
KCP was their fifth-best player who averaged 10 points per game, and Christian Braun looks ready to step into his role. While Braun is a weaker 3-and-D version, his superior passing and athleticism add new dimensions. It’s still a decline in two-way impact, but the gap will not be close to team-shattering.
According to Cleaning the Glass, Denver’s starting lineup with Braun instead of KCP scored 132.7 points per 100 possessions last season. Granted, it was only a 52-possession sample, yet the unit’s future appears bright.
Nikola Jokic is one of the top floor-raisers in NBA history who consistently ensures optimal shot quality. Jamal Murray’s off-ball shooting and ability to take over games via dribble jumpers make him a perfect secondary scorer. For those doubting Murray based on his 2024 playoffs and Olympics stinkers — he wasn’t healthy! Turn on the 2023 tape to see his effectiveness.
Aaron Gordon brings a vertical dimension to the offense, and he’s still a versatile defensive chess piece. Meanwhile, Michael Porter Jr. has been phenomenal during preseason action. He looks explosive, crisp, and ready to have a career year. If this is the new MPJ, then Denver’s offense will be unstoppable when healthy.
Now, the bench must answer questions. Can Peyton Watson be passable on offense? Will Russell Westbrook’s shooting woes be too damaging? Are Dario Saric and Zeke Nnaji capable of holding their own against playoff bigs? Is Julian Strawther ready?
The Nuggets don’t need to check all of these boxes, but striking out isn’t a viable option either. If a few of these issues are resolved – or Denver makes a trade using Nnaji’s contract and a future first – then they are the clear second-best team in the West to me behind only Oklahoma City.
Plus, Minnesota lost its Towns-Gobert duo, which gave the Nuggets more issues than anyone.
The best version of the Nuggets can topple anyone. They are hungry, experienced, and have an energizer bunny leading the locker room in Westbrook. It doesn’t hurt to have the best player in the world, either.
And despite Murray’s injury and an overall lifeless performance last postseason, Denver still had a huge lead in Game 7 versus Minnesota and likely would have defeated Dallas to reach the NBA Finals.
Fade them at your own peril.
