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Detroit Pistons
Win Total 25.1 (low 24.5, high 25.5) | Moore's Projection: 29.3
Bet/Lean/Pass: Over 25.5 5-Unit Max Play
Handicap
My favorite win total on the board is for the team that set the record for most consecutive losses last year.
It's not about just buying low on teams at their nadir. Yes, the Pistons have one of the lowest win totals on the board, but those teams don't go over at a super high rate (check the trends below).
But the key question with teams in the Pistons win total range is their intention. Do they want to win? Or do they want a top-3 lottery pick?
There are teams making their intentions very clear towards the Cooper Flagg draft (Nets, Blazers). The Pistons are not one of them. Detroit spent money in the offseason on Tobias Harris and Malik Beasley. Those are actual NBA players in the starting lineup, among the very few Cade Cunningham will have played with in his NBA career.
Harris was pilloried in Philadelphia for his high salary relative to his production. But Harris is still a plus player, averaging 17.5 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. Just that base level of competency is higher than what Detroit had last season.
The Pistons have cleared out most of their failed project draft picks and trade targets like Killian Hayes and James Wiseman. They only have five players with less than two years of NBA experience, and that includes rookies Ron Holland and Bobbi Klintman and second-year defensive menace Ausar Thompson.
Cade Cunningham figured out his jumper last season and is everything he was hyped to be as a passer (35.9% assist percentage, 98th percentile). He's a great engine and his scoring started to figure itself out last year. He still needs to improve at the rim, but with better spacing and better offensive structure there's a high chance he does.
The coaching upgrade is going to matter here. Monty Williams is a great coach if you have a proven roster with stars and are looking to win a title. He coached the Suns to the best record in the league in 2022 and a Finals appearance in 2021. However, he's not someone who maximizes his team's offensive profile in the regular season.
Williams' teams finished dead last in expected eFG% the last two seasons. Some of that is that the Suns could take tough shots with their personnel, but Detroit doesn't need that, Detroit needs more easy shots and higher efficiency profiles.
That's a specialty of new coach JB Bickerstaff. Bickerstaff's Cavaliers finished top-11 in expected eFG% based on shot location the last four years.
So a better shot profile with better offensive weapons with another year of growth for Cunningham and and a salary that suggests they want to win.
The bar here is also incredibly low, but rising; the Pistons are tied for the biggest increase from their win total opener at 22.5. If this were to get to 27.5, I would no longer like the play but it would be a strong lean.
I'm torn on whether to play tail-end outcomes like play-in tournament or playoffs. If I don't think their ceiling is 35-40 wins, is the margin high enough to trust the over? The East is so bad and so many teams will be scrambling for Cooper Flagg, a play-in spot is possible. But the Pistons' 2nd-best player is still Tobias Harris, their centers are all young, and this team was bottom-10 in both rim and 3-point shooting.
For now, I'm content with just banking on them getting above 25 wins.
TRENDS
Since 2011, not including the 2020 COVID-shortened season
- Bottom-three win totals are 17-15 to the under (including ties)
- Teams who have won fewer than 20 games are 7-3 to the over the following season, although that includes last year's Pistons team.
- Teams with a win total of 22.5 or lower are 9-7 to the over
- Teams to finish bottom-10 in both offense and defense with a win total below 25 are 8-4 to the over; the idea here is that it's very hard to be this bad for long stretches
How It Goes Over
Better coaching for personnel, a Cade jump, veteran competency, and simple regression from last year's outlier disaster leads them to 30 wins with some optimism for the future.
How It Goes Under
Oh no, they suck again.
Sneaky Guy I Like
There's a lot of angst about which center the Pistons should go with between Beef Stew Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren. I like Duran as well but Stewart makes the lineups better. Detroit was 7.5 points per 100 possessions better with Stewart on the floor. He's good on cuts, he screens well. Interesting note: Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren together as a four-man unit won their minutes (13 games, 221 minutes).
Data provided by NBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
