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Golden State Warriors
Win Total: 43.7 (42.5 Over, 44.5 Under) | Moore's Projection: 41
Bet/Lean/Pass: Pass.
Handicap
The question here is if you can tell if the core is over the cliff of age before it happens.
The Warriors lost Klay Thompson, a fact that seems impossible, given how integral Thompson was to the Warriors in their dynasty. Some feel that Thompson was washed and that his absence won't hurt the Warriors in a vacuum, especially given their offseason additions of De'Anthony Melton, Kyle Anderson, and Buddy Hield.
Last season, the Warriors won at a near-50 win (49.8) pace when Draymond Green and Stephen Curry played together. That's the lean here. The talking points go like this:
"Look, Draymond gets suspended, but even for him, last year was an outlier with a 25-game suspension. That won't happen again. You still have Steph and Draymond and when they're together (under Kerr), this is a playoff team. The supporting cast is better, the young guys are better, this is a better team than last year."
And that's a reasonable case. Melton is a capable combo guard who defends at a high level, doesn't turn the ball over, can space a little bit and will only do additive things. Anderson is like the C-plus-grade small forward version of Shaun Livingston from the first title runs. Hield is a pure shooter.
The young guys are better. Jonathan Kuminga flashed potential and while he's brash and tired of being overlooked, when he's good he's great. Trayce Jackson-Davis sneakily might have had the actual best season in terms of helping the team win of any of the young guys last year. Brandin Podziemski (Podz) is another additive player who does all the composed, crafty things you want.
If anything, this roster seems much better built to optimize Steph and Dray than ever.
So as long as you still believe in that combo, you're good.
Before January 1st, in the 14 games that Curry and Green played together before Green's suspension, they had a -6.3 net rating together on-court. They lost their minutes, which is unheard of for the Curry-Green combo.
After January 1st when the team took off, they were +9.2, phenomenal.
Here's what's interesting. That coincided with dips in each player's individual impact metrics. Their VORPS and SCHMORPS and EPMs and BPMs and all that all declined over the last half of the season.
Curry had his worst EPM since 2013, his worst BPM season since 2012.
The team played better as the stars played worse. That's a good sign!
But also, if this team is still built around Curry and Green — and it is — then any sign of their dropoff is deeply concerning. As one more point on this, the Warriors were great with Curry on the floor after the All-Star Break, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points per 100 possessions. That's phenomenal.
Except… it was mostly defense. They were 6.2 points better on defense with Curry on than off. As for the end of the floor that Curry actually impacts, the offense? Only 2.3 points better.
It's not a red alert. But it's something to keep in mind.
As for Green, after All-Star, they were still four points better with him on than off, which is in line with his 2022 title-season numbers.
These are numbers for caution, not a fade.
This number believes they will be slightly over .500. Based on last year and losing Klay (who the team was better without than with), I have them right at .500, but I don't want to believe in that figure.
However, this is still a team dependent on 34-year-old Green and 36-year-old Curry.
My question really is about whether there's a dropoff coming.
I understand not wanting to go nerdy too much on the Greatest Shooter Of All Time, but this is Curry's EPM chart game by game last season:
On the surface, it looks like Curry ended on a strong note, but so much of that was the wonkiness of March and April. He peaked in February, an dfor that stretch between January and February, he was the Curry he's always been. But that slow decline until January an that dip between February and that injury absence in March is concerning.
Maybe it was a one-year thing. Maybe Curry puts in another Curry season. That's not unlikely. But it's closer to a 50/50 proposition than it ever has been.
All of this presents as a dangerous proposition. I'm not compelled to take the under, but they are an absolute no on the over.
TRENDS
- Teams with a win total over 41 (over .50) who saw their year over year win total drop by three or more are 16-12 to the over.
- Teams that were top-15 in both offense and defense and saw their win total drop by three or more are 15-9 to the under, however.
How It Goes Over
Curry is still Curry, Steph and Draymond are still Steph and Draymond. Kerr has a bounce-back season, the youngsters take on bigger roles and actually hold up the team while the free agent additions help make the team more consistent.
How It Goes Under
Curry and Green are just a little worse. Not a lot. Just a little. Injuries undermine the foundation and the new additions don't click. Jonathan Kuminga demands a trade because that just seems like something he wants to do.
Sneaky Guy I Like
It's been several years and I still don't understand why Moses Moody can't get more minutes. He's been lapped by veterans, younger players… Seemingly everyone has gotten a chance before him and still Moody shows potential. I'm still not ready to sell Moses Moody stock.
Data courtesy ofNBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
