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Los Angeles Clippers
Win Total: 39.5/49.5 | Moore's Projection: 39.3
Bet/Lean/Pass: Too much steam on the under, pass; small play on Harden to average 20+points, 10+ assists, and Clippers to make playoffs +1300.
Handicap
This win total actually opened all the way up at 42 wins, and the market basically threw up all over that figure. Then Kawhi Leonard was announced not to be ready to participate in camp fully and is out indefinitely. So now it's moved 2.5 wins south.
Your crucial question betting on this team is if you think Paul George was worthy of the downgrade from 51 wins and the division winner to 39.5 wins. After the market wisely weighed in, this number is probably an overreaction.
The Clippers did add some talent to backfill George in Derrick Jones Jr. who had a marvelous season for the Mavericks in a defensive stopper role. They bring back Nicolas Batum who continues to make lineups better with his floor spacing, defense, and positional versatility, and reinforced the depth with Mo Bamba and Kris Dunn. Dunn, in particular adds a lot as a more solid reserve guard than the volatile Bones Hyland.
James Harden has vowed to be aggressive this season, no longer having to fit in next to George and Leonard. There's a lot of meat on this bone. Harden isn't the same Harden he was in his MVP-candidate prime between 2015 and 2020. He's a little worse and his bad games are much worse. But night to night, he can still throw up 25-12 if need be.
The question is whether the schedule will open up enough opportunities for them to sneak out the wins to get over this number. If they do, if they land 41 or higher, they are likely in the play-in tournament and have a real chance at making the playoffs.
That's why I like that DraftKings bet I mentioned above. Harden will put up numbers, the only drag on his usage is Leonard and who knows how many games he plays.
In the games where Leonard does play, Harden will fit in better. I don't love the Harden-Zubac pick and roll combo as much as some of Harden's other options through the years but Zu is more than capable and it'll work well enough. I don't love the Clippers' shooters, and Ty Lue's message of wanting the team to shoot more 3-pointers has simply not gotten through the last few years. But Jones and Mann help and Norman Powell shot 44% from 3-point range last year.
Defensively, the Clippers have the most upside. Paul George is a good defender, but replacing an older PG with DJJ, Batum, and Dunn is a net defensive upgrade. If the Clippers stick to the formula — good switching defense and volume 3-pointers — that can get them through the regular season to the over, even if Leonard misses his usual allotment of games.
Let's talk on a more intangible level, though. The leadership structure for this team is now Kawhi Leonard and James Harden.
Yikes.
Leonard is not a leader. He's quiet and when he does speak he's usually making a joke, often at someone else's expense. Leonard doesn't communicate with the team often and that makes it hard for him to keep other players engaged. Harden is a guy who players will fall in line behind when things are going well, but he's not a vocal leader; he leads by example. That absence of a strong voice in the locker room from the best players on the team weakens the locker room infrastructure.
Effectively, if you gave me any other superstars in the tier of Leonard and Harden as the best players on this team, I'd love an over. But these two in particular do not make me feel good about leading a ragtag bunch through the Western Conference death gauntlet.
I'll sprinkle on Harden 20-plus points, 10-plus assists and the playoffs at +1300 and leave this team alone. But at the current number, it's over or nothing.
TRENDS:
Since 2011 not including the COVID-shortened 2020 season…
- Teams who went over the previous season and saw their win total drop by six or more wins are 8-4 to the over
- Teams whose win total is 10 or more lower than their previous season wins are 20-10 to the under. (The logic is that the market can accurately predict when teams are going to fall off)
How It Goes Over
Leonard has a season of mostly availability closer to last year. Harden plays floor general for a team that shoots a lot of threes and switches well to handle the defensive side. The team benefits from Ty Lue's coaching more than previous seasons and they land in the Western Conference playoff picture with 46-49 wins.
How It Goes Under
Leonard has his usual lack of availability. Harden puts up numbers but the team winds up right where the win total suggests, a net-neutral team with an average offense and defense. A disappointing season in the brand new building leads to major offseason changes as the wheels come off late and they finish below 39 wins.
Sneaky Guy I Like
Keep an eye on two-way guy Jordan Miller. Lot of buzz there after a fantastic summer league.
Data courtesy ofNBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
