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Memphis Grizzlies
Win Total: 47.5 | Moore's Projection: 49.4
Bet/Lean/Pass: Lean over, pass.
Handicap
Memphis' win total is a popular over bet because oddsmakers are stuck in the dark trying to find the right number. Three seasons ago, the Grizzlies won 56 games against a win total of 41.5 with effectively the same core as they have now. Two seasons ago, they won 51 against a win total of 49.5. Then the wheels came off, Ja Morant was suspended for 25 games, everyone got hurt at once, and the Grizzlies had a year from hell last season.
So now the win total is somewhere in the middle. Their current win total of 47.5 is two lower than their win total in 2022 when they were younger and less developed, and 8.5 below how many wins they had in 2022.
It's natural to look at that and want to bet over. Morant is back after missing essentially the entire season after the suspension and then a labrum injury (and notably not a lower body injury which is the big concern with his explosive play). Jaren Jackson Jr. is a better offensive player than he was two years. Desmond Bane only played 42 games but got better as a player having to face teams as the best perimeter option when he was available.
The bench is better. Memphis found some diamonds in the rough in Vince Williams, GG Jackson (out until January this season with an injury) and Scottie Pippen Jr.
Marcus Smart is back. They added top-ten pick Zach Edey at center to give them a great screener and rebounder who can contribute offensively. Brandon Clarke is fully back after recovering from an Achilles tear and still coming back late last season.
Taylor Jenkins has put a lot of attention on the halfcourt offense, with a reshaping of the assistant coaching staff.
The Grizzliesshould be good and 47 wins is what counts for good in the West (as opposed to around 45 in the East).
Will they be?
That's where the uncertainty comes in. The Grizzlies players are a year and a half older than the last time they were the overly brash junk-talkers in 2023 that got served their comeuppance by the Lakers. People grow and change, mature even. And while that's a good thing, it changes the chemistry. The attitude that made Memphis so electric won't be the same now that Morant and Jackson are 25, Bane is already 27.
That doesn't mean worse, it could be better. But it's not the same thing. Some of the veterans are gone from those teams like De'Anthony Melton, Tyus Jones (who was vital when Morant was out) and Kyle Anderson.
Memphis isn't the same team they were, and their being the same team they were is the best logic for the over. It's just uncertain.
Talent wise, Memphis is probably somewhere between fourth and fifth in the West. Jenkins is a top-10 coach. Injuries always seem to loom for them with Morant, Jackson, and their disastrous history last season.
(Side note: if you were curious, the data over the last decade or so doesn't suggest a snapback for teams that have outlier bad injury seasons. They don't go over or under at any significant rate.)
One thing that should be the same is their defense. Even with all of last year's injuries, Jenkins and Jackson pulled that group to 12th in defensive rating. Jackson not having to play center will allow him to roam which should make them even better.
A very easy way to an over? Be a top-five defense. Top-five defenses are 43-17-1 (70%) to the over since 2011.
Memphis isn't just trying to runback who they were two years ago; they're trying to be better. But that often takes growing pains, and it might this season. If Memphis winds up a better and more dangerous playoff team than they were two years ago, that's a win for the franchise, but it could cost them getting to 48 wins.
The counter is that they could realistically miss the playoffs at 46-47 wins if the other teams in the West are all as good as expected.
I don't know how you find a way to want to bet the under with how talented this team is and how good it could be. But I don't have the appetite to invest on a long-term at this number, either.
TRENDS
Since 2011 not including the COVID-shortened 2020 season…
- Memphis is only the second team in that span to win fewer than 30 games and then have a win total above 47.5, after the 2012-13 Knicks, and that Knicks team won 36 games in the 66-game lockout-shortened season
- Teams with a win total of 47.5 or higher are 59-45-1 to the under (56%)
- Teams who won 10 or fewer games than the previous season are 24-17 the under the following season, but make it 20 or fewer games less than the previous season, and they are 5-3 to the over the following season
How It Goes Over
The team gets good health finally and a group of talented players anchored by an elite defense make strides in their offensive execution. The bench is not longer a tire fire and Memphis surges to 52-plus wins and is neck and neck or outright wins a very tough division with a top-three seed.
How It Goes Under
More injuries disrupt their continuity prompting questions about the training staff. The halfcourt offense remains stuck in neutral, suggesting this team can't solve the problems they need to with these player under this coach. Memphis lacks an identity now that they're no longer the young disrupters they were, and they wind up good-not-great at 41-44 wins.
Sneaky Guy I Like
All of our international basketball sickos at Action are raving about Yuki Kawamura so I just wanted to toss his name in. But I'm a Brandon Clarke sicko. Clarke is a ferocious smallball weapon who can clean up the glass and switch onto most players in the league. Not only does he allow the Grizzlies to slide to smallball with Jackson at the five if the situation calls for it, but Clarke will fit nicely next to Edey in bruiser lineups. The spacing might not be great, but the ability to just bully smaller teams with that combo for stretches will be. Clarke's a Dog.
Data courtesy ofNBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
