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Miami Heat
Win Total: 45.7 | Moore's Projection: 42
Bet/Lean/Pass: Bet to Miss Playoffs (+360)
Handicap
You can have the best mechanic in the world, but eventually, if you can't get new and better parts for your vehicle, it's going to slide out of being drivable.
Miami snuck into the playoffs last season and finished with a respectable 46-36 record. They were 21st in offense, which felt right, and fifth in defense. Jimmy Butler missed a bunch of time, and when he was out, he showed up at tennis events and enjoyed life off the floor in the middle of the season. When he did, Heat podcasts often asked, "When is Playoff Jimmy going to show up?"
He never did.
In that absence, Bam Adebayo took a step forward offensively as a playmaker and expanded his shooting range, but the limits of what Adebayo can provide as an offensive hub were also plainly exposed. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus didn't have good seasons for the Lakers and Cavaliers respectively, but the Heat still clearly missed their contributions.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. was the good new. The rookie showed a combination of both energy, pop, and control early on. He hit a rookie wall late, but Jaquez figures to be a big part of their future. Nikola Jović never felt like he contributed anything of meaning when you watched, but every single advanced number suggests he's a positive impact player who helps your team have more points than the opponent by the time he goes to the bench.
However, some of the Heat diamond-in-the-rough projects they usually succeed with failed last season. Haywood Highsmith is fine, but replaceable. The Heat's big move at midseason wound up being Terry Rozier, but Rozier was hurt for the playoff run. The numbers with Rozier, notably, were good.
Duncan Robinson and Kevin Love both had outstanding seasons last season, but it's fair to wonder if they'll repeat those seasons or if it was a wasted effort.
And then there's Butler. He wanted a big-money extension for what would have likely been the last contract of his career. Miami passed, and Butler passed on whatever discounted, shorter-year offer they had in mind. So instead, the two are playing it out and saying how they're totally good with the arrangement. It's not quite a divorced couple living in the same house, but it's not very far from that.
If things go great early on and Butler looks like the All-World talent he has been in a few playoff runs, they might pony up to keep him and all's well that ends well. If the Heat struggle out of the gate and it looks like it's time for a hard reset if not rebuild, then Butler is going to be a premium trade target at the deadline.
Part of this comes down to the question of whether Butler's issue is one of effort and conditioning — which Pat Riley seemed to challenge him on in post-season exit interviews — or if Butler is just dealing with the reality of being 35 years old after playing for Tom Thibodeau for several seasons and having a lot of miles on him.
What does a successful season with Butler no longer the best player on the team look like? Can you build a good enough offense around Adebayo's skillset without a primary offensive scorer or creator?
Erik Spoelstra's the best coach in the game, no one disputes this. But there are limits to what he can accomplish and you've seen that the past two seasons, even with a fluke Finals appearance.
Miami has a lot of things to reinforce their floor: an elite coach, an elite organization, and an elite defender in Adebayo. They have good talent, they shouldn't be bad. But good enough to make the playoffs is honestly a question mark, and one I'm willing to bet against.
Trends
Since 2011, not including the 2020 COVID-shortened season:
- Bottom-10 offensive teams with top-10 defenses and a win total above .500 the next season are 8-1 to the under (89%).
How It Goes Over
Spoelstra does Spoelstra things. Adebayo takes more 3s and levels up again as an offensive weapon. Butler is reinvigorated with the contract talk and puts in an All-Star season. Jaquez and Jovic cement themselves as starters. And a stable offense with better shooting cruises behind an elite defense.
How It Goes Under
The Butler tension spills into the locker room and sideline as he's unable to recapture the old magic and resents his contract situation. Adebayo stalls as a hub and the young guys aren't ready to take on bigger roles. Love suffers a late-career slide and none of the unproven young players fill the void. The team limps to a .500 season and a play-in exit.
Sneaky Player I Like
I still think Thomas Bryant has good minutes to give a team if he can settle and establish some veteran know-how.
Data provided by NBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
