The start of the NBA season is just a few days away, and we’ve got you covered with how to bet every single team in the NBA to get started. Here’s a guide to every NBA win total, with this entry on the…
Minnesota Timberwolves
Win Total 51.5/52.5 | Moore's Projection: 57.9
Bet/Lean/Pass: Small bet over 51.5.
Handicap
What happens the year after the best year in franchise history?
Last season, Minnesota had the No.1 defense, finished with 56 wins, just two shy of the franchise record, secured the third seed in the brutal Western Conference and reached the conference finals for only the second time in franchise history. If it wasn't the best season in Timberwolves history, it was damn close.
It's reasonable to expect a letdown.
On top of that, the Wolves are not just running it back. Gone is Kyle Anderson who helped shape the bench. Gone are the backup guards in Jordan McLaughlin and Monte Morris.
Oh, and they traded the former franchise cornerstone — Karl-Anthony Towns — to the Knicks for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo.
So yeah, not exactly the pinnacle of continuity.
On top of that, there's ample reason to suspect injuries could catch up with them. Rudy Gobert is 32, Mike Conley will be 37. It's just hard to expect them to play the whole season. Naz Reid can fill the center spot, but the entire team's defensive identity shifts.
Yup, lots of warning signs and red flags.
And despite all that, I have them projected way over, and I've moved them up since preseason.
Gobert with anything resembling at least two capable perimeter defenders is basically a lock for a top-5 defense. Top-five defenses are 43-17-1 to the over. When the win total is 49.5 or higher, typically an under, the over is still 17-7-1.
It's certainly possible the defense regresses to "only" top 10, but given their defensive identity and coaching, it's hard to see it unless Gobert misses months and months, and that has to be part of your risk in betting a future inherently.
The offense is where there's a lot of growth. Minnesota was 17th in offense, schedule-adjusted last season. They didn't shoot a lot of 3's, as you would expect with their personnel (20th in 3-point rate), but they shot the lights out. The Wolves were 3rd best in overall 3-point percentage, but No.1 excluding garbage time via Cleaning The Glass.
They had trouble with turnovers (23rd in turnover percentage), 2nd chance points, and mid-range efficiency (20th). They were dragged down on the margins.
But their overall offensive profile was great, as you would expect under Chris Finch, with the 8th-best location-based expected eFG% vs. the 10th-best actual.
That alone doesn't suggest improvement. But look at the key areas and where they are likely to improve. Anthony Edwards is entering his prime and an easy growth area is his mid-range jumper which he struggled with last season.
The two players with the most turnovers on the Wolves last year? Edwards at 3.1 per game and Karl-Anthony Towns at 2.9. Ant should be more polished and a better passer after facing playoff defenses, and Towns is in New York.
Then there's Donte DiVincenzo.
The reasons for the Wolves trading Towns for Randle and DDV were numerous and largely about salary. However, the big get for them might have been DiVincenzo and not Randle in this deal. Everyone in camp has raved about DiVincenzo even before his spicy preseason performance vs. the Knicks this week.
Towns to Randle and DDV is a downgrade on paper, but might make their lineups better.
With Conley 32, DDV can play "point" with Edwards actually bringing the ball up, and that roster makes sense. That means Conley doesn't have to try and push through. DiVincenzo can also play two-guard in more offensive lineups next to Conley with Edwards at small forward.
This offense might creep into the top 10 with a top-5 defense. That's far from outside expectation.
It's not that things can't go sideways with Minnesota. It's that it would take so much going wrong all at once. I will, with trepidation, bet the over on 51.5.
TRENDS
Since 2011, not including the 2020 COVID-shortened season…
- Top 5 defenses are 43-17-1 to the over (71%) in that season; top-5 defenses are still 17-7-1 to the over vs. win totals of 49.5 or higher
- No.1 ranked defenses are 5-5 on their win total the following season in the last ten season
- Teams with a top-5 defense and offense outside the top 10 are 16-11 to the under the next season.
- Win totals of 51.5 or greater are 36-20 to the under (64%)
How It Goes Over
Ant makes a leap. Gobert stays healthy. DDV boosts the offense. The floor is 50, the ceiling is 60, with nine of eleven outcomes over.
How It Goes Under
Age catches up with two starters, Ant improves but only slightly with the increased star attention. Randle doesn't work with the starters and they can't find a suitable trade, effectively getting stuck with him needing to start but holding them back. The defense slips just a little and they top out between 47 and 51.
Sneaky Guy I Like
Josh Minott. I really think he might be a guy and he's having a great preseason. Hard to get minutes with how good the roster is, but I love his game.
Data courtesy ofNBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
