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New Orleans Pelicans
Win Total: 46.5/47.5 | Moore's Projection: 49.1
Bet/Lean/Pass: Heavy Lean Toward The Over.
Handicap
I wish they had a center. I wish they didn't still have Brandon Ingram. (He's good, but he just doesn't fit and holds them back.)
I just can't get why there's this idea they're an also-ran.
The Pelicans slipped to the play-in tournament in the last four weeks of the season and were without their best player (again) in the playoffs. But there was a stretch in March where it looked like the Pels were nearly a lock for a top-six seed. They finished with the 13th-best offense and sixth-best defense.
Head coach Willie Green has a proven track record on the defensive side with back-to-back top-six seasons defensively. They have multiple plus defenders in the elite Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, Jose Alvarado, and surprisingly, Zion Williamson, who was really good on that end last season. Whether that carries over is a question, but it was a thing.
There's also reason to believe they had some luck defensively. New Orleans gave up the ninth-worst location expected eFG% in the league but the 10th-best actual eFG% last season. They gave up the second-worst 3-point rate. That's likely to come back around. They also lost their third-, fourth-, and fifth-best players in defensive EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus).
They added Dejounte Murray. If you think Murray was the problem in Atlanta and that his defense last season was about him and not playing with the Hawks, then it's natural to fade this team. But Murray still grades out as a net positive player for me, worth roughly 7.5 wins last season.
The possibility of a lineup of Murray-Jones-Murphy-Williamson and a center — really any center whatsover — is very tantalizing. That provides defense, spacing, speed, athleticism, and shooting.
Again, this is not to suggest that Ingram is "bad" because he's not; he's very good. But the fit is tough.
Williamson is such a weapon. He's singularly more athletic and explosive than any big that can guard him and so strong that any guard or wing will simply get bullied into oblivion. He started as a good and willing passer, and he's approaching great in that category. Point Zion with shooters is a formula that works.
Surrounding Williamson with a non-ball-dominant point guard in Murray who can run with him and two elite wings who can shoot in Jones and Murphy makes sense. Add a five with any floor-spacing ability and you have a nearly perfect optimization of the Pelicans' best player.
But Ingram remains in New Orleans, despite no extension deal being reached. Ingram had his best playmaking season of his career last season. He genuinely looked for Williamson consistently and the team was better with him on the floor. But look at these splits for the two of them:
That evidence suggests the team would be better off moving Williamson and building around Ingram, but everything about the skillsets suggest otherwise.
So yeah, Ingram is still kind of a jam in what this team could be. But he's also a really good player and if the Pels can figure out how to make it work with Murray, Ingram, and Williamson, it could really work.
Playing Williamson at center — and they are despite this nonsense "Herb Jones is the center" talking point — will exhaust him and lead to a higher risk of injury. Daniel Theis or rookie Yves Missi need to fill the void — and if not, they should go small-ball with Jeremiah Robinson-Earl as the actual center. (I actually think that would work since JRE is a beast physically.)
Maybe the Pelicans flip CJ McCollum for a center at some point. That seems like a very logical move to make, but trying to pry centers loose in the trade market has proven difficult.
The floor for this team is really low, as in sub-.500. The ceiling is incredibly high, 50-plus wins and potentially the division title. I had anticipated wanting to go in on their high-end outcomes. There's a lot that works here. Their bench is venomous with Alvarado as the head of the snake.
But they're still a team that's not done building its final form, that made the Murray move to reshape their identity but only took the half-measure. With that, I'll remain on the sideline and hope they decide to commit to one version of this team or another.
Trends
Since 2011, not including the COVID-shortened 2020 season:
- Teams with a top-10-but-not-top-five defense (good but not overrated) with a win total below 49.5 are 20-15 to the over.
- Teams that went over the prior season and saw their win total close lower than their previous season wins are 30-24 (55%) to the under; the logic is that the market is directionally correct on teams. Of those 54 teams, teams with a win total over .500 (41 wins) are 22-14 to the under (61%).
How It Goes Over
The team's defense holds up as Williamson maintains his effort and performance there. They find a center option that works and the team becomes a top-10 team in net rating and cruises to a top-six seed with 48+ wins. Alternatively, they trade Ingram for multiple rotation pieces, including a center upgrade, and Point Zion lives up to his potential as New Orleans finishes with 50+ wins and contends for or outright wins the division.
How It Goes Under
Outside of the usual injury concerns with Williamson, the team's defensive luck runs out and a mediocre offense with clunky components holds them back and they remain in stop-and-start mode, winding up in the play-in again with 40-45 wins.
Sneaky Player I Like
Look out for Jordan Hawkins, who was an electric shooter last season and then lost his spot to more experienced players. He's lighting up preseason again and looks primed for a bigger role.
Data provided by NBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
