The start of the NBA season is just a few days away, and we’ve got you covered with how to bet every single team in the NBA to get started. Here’s a guide to every NBA win total, with this entry on the…
Orlando Magic
Win Total: 47.9 | Moore's Projection: 49.1
Bet/Lean/Pass: Lean over, pass.
Handicap
What does the year after the leap look like?
Orlando made the jump into the playoffs and emerged as one of the nastiest defenses in the league last season. They thrived in ugly rock fights, as their offense struggled, but they beat the teams they were supposed to.
Orlando was great at dictating pace and style, they never got sped up, and you couldn't really bog them down. Paolo Banchero made a jump as the best player on the team and the primary engine, even if his efficiency struggled. Franz Wagner had what feels like an outlier 3-point shooting season that helped hamper the offense. Jalen Suggs emerged as an elite defender and shot 39 percent from 3-point range.
More than anything, the Magic figured out what they didn't have. They started poor rookie Anthony Black in 33 games due to injury and spacing issues with Markelle Fultz (who Orlando let walk). Black wasn't ready and still should turn out as a fine player. But it taught the Magic that maybe they didn't need a scoring point guard after pursuing Kyle Lowry and Chris Paul in trade talks the past two seasons. Instead, they acquired Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency, shifting Suggs to point guard.
The team still doesn't have a burst scorer, and that's an issue. Sometimes, you don't need a lot, you just need a guy who can rattle off 10 points in 8 minutes to help make it a little easier on your defense.
Banchero could make another leap and then the team projects as still a below-league average offense, but not the 22nd-ranked one like last year. If Banchero takes a small but significant step forward in just one area of shooting, and Wagner's shot regresses, that's probably enough to get them over with normal health.
Center is an interesting situation for the Magic. Wendell Carter Jr. started most games when healthy, but had health issues and when he returned, the team had turned to Jonathan Isaac who finally played most of a season. Isaac had gaudy defensive stats and proved his value, but in the playoffs, Orlando turned back to WCJ starting.
Then in the offseason, Orlando handed out contracts to not just Isaac… but Goga Bitadze as well. Goga had incredible advanced and on/off metrics when he played last season, and does bring a different look to the table. But Orlando now has Isaac and Bitadze for multiple seasons going forward, and WCJ and Mo Wagner for the next two.
Follow that up with the news in preseason that the Magic decided to extend WCJ as well, on a deal that will lock him in for the year as un-tradeable.
So what comes next?
There will be teams that need centers. It's the most sparse and sought-after position in the league right now in trade discussions. You'd rather have a cadre of wings for the playoffs, but if you run into a situation where you don't have enough size, suddenly that feels like an incredible priority.
So Orlando might be able to trade for a scorer, especially one coming off the bench. Their starters are locked. Suggs is starting point guard, with KCP who has to start with that contract. Then Franz Wagner and Banchero, their two best players, and insert a center of your choice. That leaves them the ability to trade a starting-caliber center for a bench guard.
CJ McCollum makes a lot of sense as a trade target in New Orleans. The Blazers also have scorers. Washington has a few.
Don't be surprised if Orlando does the maximizing of its roster in-season.
As for the win total, I'd love to buy in on this team. They're fun and disciplined. They're also mentally tough, they do not let go of the rope and have a lot of trust in what they can do if they stick with it. But the spot with an increased win total against a jump that typically spells regression as you'll see in the trends below is a scary proposition.
I think they're properly priced as the division favorite at a best price of -140. They should make the playoffs. This number feels a tad high for their win total but also, teams with their identity (i.e. great defense with a certified star offensive player) tend to win a lot of games.
The problem there as you'll learn in the trends is that defense is rarely sticky enough to bank on.
Orlando might be an in-season play either way. If the offense still looks stuck in the mud, if the Suggs-KCP backcourt combo is junky, if Wagner's 3-pointer and Banchero's jumper are still off, lot of ways to play the under. If things look like they're clicking, though, this team might well throw a wrench in the established convention of the top three in the East being Boston, Philly and New York if one of them slips.
For now, I'll be patient, and respect the trends.
TRENDS
Since 2011 not including the 2020 COVID-shortened season…
- Teams that won 10 more games than the previous season are 51-33-2 (64%) to the under the following season.
- Teams that made the playoffs with a bottom-10 offense are 12-3 (80%) to the under the following season.
- Even those teams with a bottom-10 defense who made the playoffs with a top-10 defense like Orlando are 11-2 to the under.
- Speaking of defense, while top-five defenses are basically a lock for the over, when a top-10 defensive team makes the playoffs, the under is 46-31-1 to the under the following season (59%).
- Additionally, the average defensive rank since 2011 for top-10 defenses the following season is just outside that at 10.8. Only 34 teams with a top 10 defense out of 107 (including ties, 32%) had a top-five defense the following season. Only 58 (54%) had a top-10 defense.
- Teams who won at least 26 games against sub-.500 opponents (75th percentile in that span) and had a win percentage in those games of at least 75% (75th percentile in that span) are 43-31 (57%) to the under the following season.
How It Goes Over
Suggs takes full control of the point guard spot, KCP adds shooting and keeps the defense elite. Banchero's jumper improves as does his shot selection. Wagner's 3-point shot positively regresses, and the team is a 15th-in-offense, 2nd-in-defense monster who beats up on anyone but the elite teams.
How It Goes Under
Banchero continues to struggle balancing usage and efficiency, Wagner's development stalls out. Suggs-KCP doesn't work as a backcourt and they find they need a primary floor general who can shoot. The bench strength fades and all the trends catch up with them as they lose the division to the Heat with 45 wins.
Sneaky Guy I Like
I'm pretty much never gonna give up on Jarrett Culver but the real answer is Mo Wagner. Wagner is my kind of player in that he's a huge pain in the ass to play against and never tries to do more than he should. He plays completely within his role and excels at doing what his team needs to win. He finished 94th percentile in effective field goal percentage and 83rd percentile in defensive rebound percentage. Grab board. Dunk ball. Simpler is better.
Data provided by NBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
