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Philadelphia 76ers
Win Total 52.5 | Moore's Projection (If Normal Health): 56.8
Bet/Lean/Pass: Nope, Nope, Nope. Pass, Pass, Pass.
Handicap
In a perfect world, this is my strongest Eastern Conference play. I would bet the over. I would bet alternate overs. I would bet No. 1 seed plays. I would bet most wins. I would bet conference futures. I would bet title futures. I would bet it all.
But that universe is not the one we live in.
We live in the one where Joel Embiid hasn't played more than 68 games in a season and has played fewer than 55 three times in the last five years. We live in the one where an injury to Embiid once again submarined the Sixers' postseason chances at momentum and a run. Embiid has his MVP and would have won another last season if he hadn't gotten hurt. The only focus has to be on the title.
Embiid might still want those bonuses and accolades that come with awards, which means pushing for the 65-game minimum. And the more he pushes, the higher his risk exposure is.
Paul George joins the team as the signature addition, and I'm higher on it than most. George is a swiss-army knife. He's a good-to-great defender. He's a scorer who can get buckets in bursts and then play a lower usage role when the defense adjusts; that's his comfort zone: force the defense to account for him and then let his teammates take advantage. He's a quality passer. You can use him on-ball, off-ball spot up or off screens, as a cutter or in isolation.
That kind of player is the perfect bridge between Tyrese Maxey and Embiid. He'll help in the non-Embiid minutes next to Maxey and help in the non-Maxey-minutes next to Embiid. He will have month-long stretches where he's a top-ten player in the league.
He's also 34 years old with the injuries that come with 14 seasons in the NBA. That's just more risk.
The Sixers last season found the formula. Before Embiid's injury, they were my No.2 team in power ratings and it was neck and neck with them and the Celtics. They had the combination of talent. It clicked.
Kelly Oubre makes sense on this roster and gave them great minutes last season. He knows his role: rebound, cut, get out in transition. He fits very well next to Embiid. Ricky Council IV popped last season and could be a sneaky bench scoring weapon. Caleb Martin was an underrated signing, albeit a former member of the Heat who comes with all the baggage former Heat members do. Andre Drummond is a plus player off the bench at this point in his career. Jared McCain and Adem Bona have rookie pop potential. Kyle Lowry shifts to veteran backup point guard, a perfectly fine role for him.
The Sixers didn't return everything from last season, Nic Batum went back to the Clippers, Tobias Harris departed for the Pistons, and De'Anthony Melton went to the Bay. Buddy Hield, a big pickup at the trade deadline, didn't work out and also went to the Bay.
But the combination of talent remains high, built around Embiid. Which of course, is the issue given his injury history. He's so good the over is a great play if he puts in 60-plus games, and he's so pivotal that the team falls apart if he misses more than 20 games.
The Sixers have won more than 52.5 games just once since 2018. They probably should have won more than that three more times.
Do you want to bet on this being the year Embiid stays healthy and PG stays healthy and everything clicks the way it should?
If they can get this team healthy for the postseason, they have a legit chance at winning the title. But we are so many years into this with the Sixers that you can't say a future bet on them has definable value. Volatility typically works in the favor of bettors, and if you want to take tail end results on this team, there's probably something there. Miss playoffs is +1300, No.1 seed is +500.
But I'll just go ahead and sit this one out and look for specific spots to bet Philly when I know everyone's playing, however rare that will be.
TRENDS
Since 2011 not including the 2020 COVID-shortened season:
- Teams with a win total of 52.5 or higher are 32-18 to the under (64%)
- The Sixers have gone over in three of four seasons.
- Nick Nurse is 3-2 to the under in his caree
How It Goes Over
Embiid plays 65 games, Paul George plays 65 games, and the roster fits together for a well balanced 55-win team.
How It Goes Under
The same injuries that befall them every year.
Sneaky Guy I Like
You have to love President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey going for French Olympics standout and former NBA player Guerschon Yabusele. Yabusele is a truck and should be fun on second units as a traditional power forward next to Andre Drummond. That's a beefy second unit for Philly.
Data provided by NBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
