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Phoenix Suns
Win Total: 47.5 | Moore's Projection: 50.1
Bet/Lean/Pass: Over 47.5
Handicap
I held out as long as I could… but preseason caught me.
This team is buying into Mike Budenholzer's concepts, and that was my only hesitation.
Let's be clear: Frank Vogel got hosed. There was no reason for the Suns to have tuned out and eventually scapegoated Vogel the way they did. Vogel has coached teams to multiple conference championship games and a title. But that's the past and it's done.
My question when the Suns hired Budenholzer was if this team that has steadfastly refused to adapt to better shot selection and commit on defense would do so for a coach who, if you do those things, will help you win 50-plus games minimum. Budenholzer's track record in the regular season is unassailable.
In Budenholzer's first year with the Hawks, they won 38 games vs. a 39.5 win total, an under. But Al Horford, who never missed games at that age, was injured and only played 29 games. They absolutely go over this number if Horford isn't injured.
In Budenholzer's first year with the Bucks? How about 60 wins vs. a 48 win total? Strong evidence that Budenholzer makes an immediate impact.
So far in the preseason, they look like they've adapted all the Bud hallmarks, including most notably a change to volume 3-point attempts. Phoenix is third in preseason 3-point attempts per 100 possessions. Maybe that recedes in the regular season and they return to taking too many midrange shots, but at least there are strong indications they plan to adapt to Budenholzer.
The roster upgrades are significant. Phoenix tried going without a point guard last season and the results were disappointing. They just needed someone to bring the ball up and set the offense. Tyus Jones is perfect for that, the king of assist-to-turnover ratio. He can get things organized and then space the floor while Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal work. Monte Morris provides a better backup point guard. Mason Plumlee is a better backup big, meaning that if Jusuf Nurkić is out or gets into foul trouble, they still have a rim protector big.
Bear in mind that Durant's individual performance last season was incredible. He shot 74.4% at the rim (94th percentile), a mind-breaking 51% from the mid-range (94th percentile), and 41% from 3-point range (84th percentile), putting up 27-7-4 along with great defense.
Booker struggled with injury issues but is due for a bounce-back. Beal seemed content to take more of a supporting background role and never got in the way even if he didn't stand out much, but he had his usual injury issues.
When Booker, Beal, and Durant played alongside Grayson Allen and Nurkić — the intended starting five — the Suns were 23-12, a 53-win pace. When just Booker and Durant played, they were 38-23, a 51-win pace.
Phoenix trimmed a lot of the fat from the roster. They improved the coaching. They still have great stars. As long as they buy in, this is going to work.
Trends
- Teams with an SRS (Simple Rating System, point differential vs. strength of schedule) of 3.0 or greater are 43-35 to the under the following season (56%). But when the win total is below 47.5, it's .500 at 10-10.
How it Goes Over
The Big 3 a) stay healthy and b) buy into Budenholzer's philosophy. They re-engage with better continuity, chemistry, and communication and turn into an absolute monster that wins the division and rolls to 55-plus wins.
How it Goes Under
The Big 3 a) do not stay healthy and/or b) do not buy into Budenholzer's philosophy. They continue to take inefficient shots they are really good at but that limit their 3-point ceiling and wind up staggering to 45-ish wins and a play-in appearance they narrowly avoided last season. The trade demands are swift afterward.
Sneaky Player I Like
I will never give up on Damion Lee — ever (great profile on him here).
Data provided by NBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
