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Sacramento Kings
Win Total: 46.5 | Moore's Projection: 45
Bet/Lean/Pass: Lean strongly under, pass.
Handicap
I was ready to buy in. I was looking for the great vibes. I want no part of any "serious" future on the Kings for winning in the playoffs, but an over and division play seemed like a great idea. They added DeMar DeRozan, the Feel Good Hooper. The team wants to respond after a disappointing 2024.
And honestly, if preseason had gone well, I'd probably be buying in and upgrading my projection. We'll come back to preseason.
The offseason moves made them way better. I upgraded them by four points on power rating. The counter is that I have the Kings last season as -1.7 against an average team on neutral court. Their Pythagorean-expected-win-total-based power rating was only +0.7 last season. So they were, at best, a slightly above-average team headed into the offseason.
DeRozan adds a lot. He's a great passer and a total mid-range wizard. He shot 46 percent from mid-range, good for 77th percentile last season. He was 92nd percentile as a scorer in pick and roll, 86th percentile in isolation, and 79th percentile in post-up via Synergy Sports. His defense varies between "pretty good" and "slightly below average" night to night but he winds up net neutral more often than not and very rarely holds his team back.
However, there's a nasty habit of supporting players struggling next to DeRozan. Kyle Lowry was better solo than with him in Toronto. LaMarcus Aldridge was better solo than with him in San Antonio. And a promising Zach LaVine emergence turned into an untradeable nightmare. I'm not worried about Sabonis. I'm a little worried about Fox. I'm especially worried about Keegan Murray whose development may be stunted by the presence of DeRozan.
Harrison Barnes, on the other hand, was atrocious defensively and definitely held the team back last season. The Kings' defense was six points worse with him on the floor. That's mind-boggling for a veteran. (Let's not talk about the Kings' defense being seven points worse with Domantas Sabonis on-court.)
Barnes, Sasha Vezenkov, Davion Mitchell, and Chris Duarte were all negative impact players to the Kings' power rating by my figures. I like Mitchell a lot and think he'll get there, but he didn't help last season. Vezenkov was just not a contributor and neither was Duarte. There's a strong argument that the Kings will improve on last season through addition by subtraction alone.
Conversely, the Kings found a gem in Keon Ellis, an absolute pest who can hang offensively.
The Kings were 14th in half-court offense and 22nd in halfcourt defense last season. You just cannot live on transition alone and hold up in the West.
De'Aaron Fox is an absolute monster. He was 95th percentile in offensive EPM, 87th percentile in defensive EPM. He also had an 87th percentile positive impact on halfcourt offense. He's their best player and anyone who tells you differently is an investor in Sabonis Sham Stock. Sabonis is good, produces, skilled, and helps. He's just not as impactful as Fox.
The Kings are better than last season, but they also overperformed last season. They've probably caught up to the West, but they haven't gotten a leg up.
Trends
Since 2011 not including the COVID-shortened 2020 season…
- Teams who finished outside the top ten in both offense and defense and have a win total of 45 or higher are 19-13-1 to the under.
- Of those teams above, 27 of the 33 teams have missed the playoffs the following season.
- The Kings went winless in preseason. Teams to go winless in preseason are 7-3 to the under since 2013.
How it Goes Over
DeRozan is nothing but additive, being a connector between Fox and Sabonis, anchoring the offense on nights they miss, and the team's defense continues to improve while the offense gets back to how explosive it was in 2023.
How it Goes Under
They still can't get enough stops, DeRozan plays well but the team plays worse, and the Kings face tough choices in the offseason.
Sneaky Player I Like
Trey Lyles is the kind of story I love, a guy who struggled early on his career but learned from every stop and now is a really good contributor as a bench big. I also like Alex Len and think more than one team should be looking to trade for him to add to their center depth.
Data courtesy ofNBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
