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Utah Jazz
Win Total: 28.5/29.5 | Moore's Projection: 22
Bet/Lean/Pass: Under 29.5, Two Units
Handicap
Very simply, they are still a young, rebuilding team with one great star in Lauri Markkanen and several good supporting players, but ones who can't lift the floor.
Ten of the 17 players currently on this roster have three seasons of NBA experience or less. The Jazz need to play Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, Cody Williams, Kyle Filipowski, Walker Kessler and Isaiah Collier. They need to trade Jordan Clarkson, and probably Collin Sexton. Maybe they will, maybe they won't.
However, a team this young will have a hard time winning games in the Western Conference, and once they start losing, the momentum will lean toward protecting their draft pick (1-10 protected in 2025).
Will Hardy had a terrific first season as a coach in Utah, but last season was a mess. Utah finished 16th in offense, but 30th in defense. Utah will likely still be good at home as the Jazz were over six points better in net rating at home than on the road, the best in the league, last season.
But again, if that's not good enough for the Jazz to compete, at what point do they turn toward draft positioning?
The first argument is that the rest of the league will be so bad that Utah can't get to a top-four lottery position, so they can finish with a top-10 spot, keep the pick and win 30-34 games.
The counter argument is that if the Jazz turn on the tank jets, they can easily get a top-six spot and have at least a 9% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, and a 37% chance of a top-four spot with multiple players considered potential franchise stars.
Markkanen can't be traded until after this season based on when he signed his extension. However, with the team committed to him longterm, there's no incentive on either side for him to play and risk injury that could impact a season where the Jazz want to win.
The competition with this team is not if they'll be good, but if they'll be truly bad in a season with so many teams primed for sub-25 wins.
Schedule-neutral, I project this team at 26 wins, but they play in the West and in a brutal division. Utah will very rarely be favored.
This roster also has so many unknowns that it wouldn't shock me if Utah was a surprise team. I still believe Hardy's a good coach and there are a number of players who can make leaps.
But the most likely outcome, the most logical outcome, is for this team to pursue a star to pair with Markkanen through the draft. Progress can be made without wins this season and that leads me to the under at this number.
Trends
Since 2011, not including the 2020 COVID-shortened season …
- Teams with a win total of 30 or lower that had an expected wins differential of +1.6 or more the previous season have gone 15-11 to the under, 12-9 to the under with an expected win differential of +2 or more (Utah was +2.9 last season).
- Botom-10 win total teams in the West are 54% to the under (28-23).
How It Goes Over
Markkanen balls out, George makes a jump and Sexton isn't traded, but instead validates the stats he's put up over the past two seasons. Kessler gets his career trajectory back on track and the Jazz defense jumps into the teens. The Jazz win 35-plus games and are at least within range of the play-in, giving their pick to Oklahoma City (as if the Thunder need another).
How It Goes Under
Markkanen plays great for two months and then suddenly develops "knee soreness" and/or "calf soreness" and suddenly doesn't play the rest of the season. The youngsters develop and improve, but the team still sinks into 25-27 wins, clearing the under, keeping the pick and setting their momentum toward next season — when they can make a push with another great draft pick.
Sneaky Guy I Like
If Sexton gets moved, he's not going to change a team's title hopes, but can certainly decide seeding and whether a team goes over its win total. His numbers have been great in Utah and he looks to be maturing into a capable, reliable veteran.
Data courtesy ofNBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
