The start of the NBA season is just less than a week away, and we’ve got you covered with how to bet every single team in the NBA to get started. Here’s a guide to every NBA win total, with this entry on the…
Boston Celtics
Win Total 58.2 (57.5 and 58.5's both in market) | Moore's Projection: 62.1
Bet/Lean/Pass: Celtics or nothing, strong lean but a pass.
Handicap
Boston over was one of my bigger positions last year, and was pretty much a breeze.
Boston is the most consistent great team in the league. Yes, they're the defending champions with a stellar starting five and multiple All-NBA-caliber players. But the reason why they're so trustworthy in the regular season compared to other great teams isn't their talent or playstyle. They come prepared for every single game. Boston isn't a try-hard squad like a Tom Thibodeau special, but they're also not a team that takes a lot of games off and gets bored.
Maybe that changes after so many deep playoff runs (four conference finals appearances in five years) and after finally reaching the mountain top, but the combination of the age of their core and Joe Mazzulla's commitment to process sets a floor that is higher than any other team's in the league.
Kristaps Porzingis will be out to start the season, and not only is there no definitive timeline set for his return, but the Celtics can also afford to be patient without him. It's easy to look at Porzingis being out and Al Horford being another year older and wonder if they're more vulnerable.
But last season, without Porzingis, the Celtics went 21-4 without Porzingis last season. TWENTY-ONE AND FOUR. That's categorically insane.
A few more stats on how incredible Boston was last season:
- Boston won 64 games last year despite going 6-7 in 3-point games. They didn't even win the coin flips!
- Boston won 42 games by double digits. Think about that. Boston won half the games on their schedule by 10 or more points.
- Boston had the fifth-best SRS (simple rating system which factors point differential against strength of schedule). The four teams above them also won the title.
- Derrick White had the best net rating on-court among all starters, with the Celtics beating opponents by 12.5 points per 100 possessions with him on-court. What's amazing is that's only 1.5 points better than when White was on the bench. Despite a thin bench, the Celtics annihilated teams when the five starters weren't on the floor together.
They return every piece of that rotation and Porzingis will be back sooner rather than later. They play in the weaker conference in a weaker division with the Nets' transition to rebuilding.
Boston finished with the No.1 offense and No.2 defense last season. They averaged the most 3-point attempts and makes, and the second-highest percentage, while allowing the fifth-lowest 3-point attempts, sixth-lowest makes, and 4th-lowest percentage. Boston destroys teams with a math advantage.
While I have the Thunder power rated higher off their offseason moves, the Celtics are the best team and not just by virtue of their championship.
However… the trends below give all sorts of reasons why the Boston under is the play. The reality is that winning 55-plus games in the NBA is hard and doing it in back-to-back years is as difficult. If any team should, Boston should. But betting on it is perilous.
TRENDS
Since 2011, not including the 2020 COVID season:
- Teams with a win total of 52.5 or higher (a key number in win totals) are 32-18 to the under (64%)
- Top-3 win totals in a given season are 27-14 (66%) to the under since 2011
- Win totals of 55 or higher are 19-10 to the under
- Teams who won 60 are 10-4 to the under the following season, including 7 straight
- Teams that won 60 or more with a win total of 55-plus the next season are 5-3 to the under
- Teams that won 60 games and won the title are 4-3 to the under in that span
- The exception is truly elite teams: teams that won 60 games with a top offense and defense with a win total over 55 are 4-2 to the over the next season
- Teams with the highest win total (including ties) are 9-5 to the under
- Teams that were top five in both offense and defensive rating are 7-6 to the over
How It Goes Over
Boston does what it does, being awesome at both ends night after night and staying consistent through 82 games, breezing to 55-plus wins even with injuries or bad luck.
How It Goes Under
The strain of consecutive conference title runs and a summer spent celebrating or playing for Team USA (or in certain players' cases, not playing for Team USA) takes its toll. They get banged up with a rotation that's thinner than the numbers show and the absence of motivation to win their first title means they only win 50-54 games.
Sneaky Guy That I Like
Xavier Tillman proved Boston's midseason trade for him was prescient when he filled in for Porzingis in the Finals and had big moments. Tillman has carved out a role as a capable big who's not elite anywhere but solid in most places from screening to rebounding to defense to stretching the floor.
Data provided by NBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
