The Boston Celtics are the favorites of the basketball gods this season. First, the Portland Trailblazers refused to trade with Damian Lillard's preferred destination, Miami. That opened the door for the Bucks to trade Jrue Holiday to Portland. Then, the Blazers sent Holiday to the Celtics, giving them an upgrade at point guard over Marcus Smart who they sent out in the Kristaps Porzingis deal.
The Celtics had an incredible regular season, the fifth-best in NBA history by Simple Rating System (point differential vs. strength of schedule). They were hardly touched in the regular season and are on the verge of securing their sixth conference finals appearance since 2017.
Let's dive into the best ways to bet the heavily favored Boston Celtics.
How to Bet the Heavily Favored Boston Celtics
As the playoffs started, Joel Embiid returned just weeks before the end of the season. They missed securing the 6th seed by a single game, pitting them against the two-seed Knicks, a ferocious team well-designed to beat them with their combination of bigs and Jalen Brunson. That meant the Celtics would not have to face both the Sixers and Knicks. The Knicks advanced through a series of insane end-game scenarios.
On the other side of that bracket, Giannis Antetokounmpo was unable to return for the Bucks' series against the Pacers, who are a nightmare matchup for them to begin with. Damian Lillard then got hurt, putting the Bucks behind the 8-ball even with the Bucks winning Game 5 without him.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Cavaliers inexplicably tanked their last game of the season, which allowed the Knicks to grab the 2-seed and have homecourt until the conference finals. If the Cavaliers didn't tank that game, it's Bucks-Magic in the 4-5 and the Bucks' chances of getting out of that series are much better, with Boston having to face the Bucks, likely with Giannis back, in the second round.
The Celtics wound up with a Jimmy-Butler-less Heat in the first round, then the Cavaliers who barely got by the Magic. And on top of all of this? Donovan Mitchell strained his calf while Jarrett Allen missed the entire series with a rib injury in their second-round series. Oh, and the Knicks, who are favored to advance to the conference finals in Sunday's Game 7, are without three starters after OG Anunoby suffered a hamstring injury.
The Celtics didn't ask for any of this. You play who's in front of you. But the Celtics are the best team in the conference, by far, and every single thing that could have gone right for them to avoid adversity has happened. The Celtics are going to breeze to the Finals, no matter who comes out of Pacers-Knicks. Boston went 7-3 this season vs. the two teams with an average margin of victory of over nine points per game.
The problem is: the market thinks even more highly of them than any stat will.
Boston is -155 to win the title and -900 to win the conference at FanDuel.
The Celtics continue to confound fans and bettors by having the profile of one of the most dominant teams of all time and the look of a pretty good team, but nothing to really write home about. Yet the market is firmly of the belief that facts are facts and they are simply a tier above the rest.
So how do you bet them in any meaningful way?
Eastern Conference Finals MVP
This market is remarkably soft at the moment.
Boston is -950 to win the Eastern Conference, 91% implied odds. Jayson Tatum is -210 to win ECF MVP at DraftKings, Jaylen Brown is +450 at bet365, Derrick White is +1600 (bet365) and Kristaps Porzingis is +3300 (there is a strong chance Porzingis does not play part or any of the ECF).
Tatum has averaged 27 points per game in the last two years vs. the Knicks (should they advance Sunday) along with eight rebounds and six assists, shooting 13-of-23 when defended by Josh Hart. If OG Anunoby returns for the Knicks, however, that's much tougher. Tatum has had a hard time with Anunoby the last three seasons, shooting 10-of-24 from the field according to NBA.com's admittedly wonky tracking data.
But Anunoby is unlikely to return for at least the early part of the series if at all.
Tatum led the Celtics in games vs. the Knicks in scoring, but in fewer games, Porzingis led in BPM. If he returns for this series, it's possible that he winds up being a key factor.
However, the Knicks will be power rated higher than the Pacers. So if the Knicks win, this number will drop as a probability becomes certain. You'll get a better price in this market if New York wins Game 7. If you think the Pacers win, you'll want to bet this now because they'll all get shorter.
Tatum dominated the Pacers the last two seasons, averaging 33-10-7. If the Pacers advance (and Boston wins), Tatum is even more likely to win ECF MVP because of the lack of wing defenders on Indiana.
Tatum is the Celtics' best player and he's priced appropriately as the favorite. I'd also say that Brown has arguably been the Celtics' best overall player this season. He's developed a dangerous chemistry with Porzingis which helps his assists and can score with the best of them.
If it's the Knicks, both Porzingis and White have value. Porzingis has gone off vs. his old team routinely and could be the deciding factor. White on the other hand would contribute significant scoring and have the "shut off the water to Jalen Brunson" should he get the assignment. (Jrue Holiday drew the most minutes and possessions in the regular season vs. the Knicks this season; Holiday has almost no value as he won't contribute enough offensively.)
Tatum at -210 has value if it's the Pacers, but it's worth just waiting to see if the Knicks can get out of Game 7 as the home favorite and then bet him at a shorter price, even as the matchup might favor other plays.
One more? Tatum ECF MVP, Jokic WCF MVP, should you believe the Nuggets advance on Sunday as I do, is +239.
The Finals MVP prices actually aren't of good value now. They presume too many matchups where Tatum would be the best player or even with the best player, as opposed to the most likely outcome (Denver) where Jokic is the best player in the series.
Exactas
Celtics-Nuggets exact finals matchup is +145 at FanDuel, and Celtics to beat Nuggets is +345. Saturday is the last time those numbers will be relevant; either the Nuggets lose and the bets are dead, or they win and the price plummets as the Nuggets will be big favorites vs. either the Thunder or Mavericks in the WCF.
Even if you're a longterm skeptic, taking Celtics to beat Nuggets +345 gives you a great price to hedge with the Nuggets against in the Finals, either with an outright ticket or Jokic Finals MVP ticket.
Meanwhile, if you're a Wolves backer, you can get Celtics beat Wolves at +650, Celtics over Mavericks at +420 and Celtics over Thunder in a 1-seed vs. 1-seed matchup at +1300. (As a reminder, we've seen very few No.1 vs. No.1 seed matchups in the Finals over the past 30 years. Also, only six teams have made the Finals as lower than a third seed (Pacers, Mavericks) in the last 30 years, and two of them were the Zombie Heat.
These prices reflect the best way for you to bet the Celtics. You can take it as certainty that they win the ECF (nothing is certain, but 91% implied isn't far off), and then you can position yourself based on how you cap the other series.
Is that better than just dealing with the pain and betting the Celtics -155 to win the whole thing? Probably not. That's simple and effective and not a bad price based on the fact that even if it's Denver, they'll have played a Game 7 and then probably faced a tougher test than expected in the WCF (both the Mavs and Thunder match up surprisingly well).
But these are all ifs you want to bet the Celtics.
Ok, but should you bet them?
The reality is that Boston still has critics and doubters for good reason.
Their success has become a bit of a boulder for them to push uphill. They haven't played in any competitive games to test their clutch-time mettle, leading to the idea that they are untested and might wilt if they're in tough environments, but they're only in non-competitive games because they win by so much all the time.
Still, Denver swept the season series vs. the Celtics and matches up great. They're the defending champs and have looked comfortable vs. how Boston is built.
If you think another team gets out of the West, you should bet the Celtics -155 to win the title right now. That number drops like an anvil if the Nuggets lose Sunday or the moment they're eliminated in the conference finals (and even if they trail, it loses huge value).
Minnesota would be live in a matchup against the Celtics. They lost in overtime in Boston and won the game at home vs. the Celtics. They have the perimeter defenders to muck up the Celtics' 3-point variance, ISO-heavy approach. The Thunder likely struggle with containment and fouling, and the Mavericks just may not have enough on either end.
But if you like any of those teams and want to bet the Celtics, bet the Celtics now. You'll get a great price on them in the Finals anyway to take the other side.
If you just don't believe in the Celtics, flat-out, FanDuel has offered the Field at +120 vs. Boston. You'll get a better price at some point in the Finals most likely given Boston's homecourt advantage. But if you think they just get jumped out of the gate, that's a good number.
I can't tell you if the Celtics are as good as their numbers. They don't feel as good but feelings aren't numbers. I can tell you the market is way out in front on Boston, and you'll have to get creative to get a good price. All year, the Celtics have told us they're the best team in basketball.
They only need eight more wins to prove it.
